Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
253
FXUS64 KOUN 151929
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
229 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
- There is risk for severe thunderstorm in parts of our area
through least Tuesday of next week.
- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected most
afternoons across western Oklahoma into western north Texas.
- Very warm to hot temperatures are expected through this weekend
with a cooler weather by Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Fire weather is ramping up across our west with RH values dropping
to near 10 percent along our western border and southerly winds in
the 20 to 30 mph range, gusting to near 40 mph (strongest winds
along an axis from western north Texas / southwest Oklahoma up
through central Oklahoma). The most extreme fire weather conditions
will be centered in southwest Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas
where the stronger winds overlap with the dry air and volatile
fuels. Dry lightning will also be a risk factor in this area this
evening.
Temperatures will rise into the 100 to 105 degree range across
western Oklahoma, with upper 80s / lower 90s expected through
central Oklahoma. Several sites will approach record values. Parts
of southwest Oklahoma may approach heat advisory criteria, but this
should be localized and effects will be mitigated by partly cloudy
skies, low humidities, and breezy winds.
Isolated to widely scattered elevated storms are expected to
initiate off the dryline again late this afternoon with downburst
winds as the main hazard. CAMs suggest western north Texas as the
most likely area for these storms with a secondary signal in far
northwest Oklahoma. As of this writing, we`re starting to see some
notable cumulus develop in the southeast Texas panhandle. Similar to
last night, there is also a risk for heat bursts and wake lows with
lingering showers through the night.
Day
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Another hot day on Saturday with fire weather expected in the west.
The dryline is expected to set up a bit farther west, giving us RH
values in the mid to upper teens across western and northwestern
Oklahoma. This will combine with gusty winds to yield near critical
fire weather conditions.
Isolated dryline convection will be possible Saturday afternoon and
evening, though probabilities will be lower due to capping. The
strongest signals for storms are again western north Texas with a
secondary signal in far northwest Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging
winds would be the primary hazards with any storms that develop.
Sunday`s fire weather risk will be focused in northwest Oklahoma
where gusty south winds (20 to 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph) and low RH
values (teens) will combine over volatile fuels (90-95th percentile)
producing critical fire danger conditions.
Dryline convection will again be possible Sunday afternoon and
evening with two subtle differences. Upper level forcing will be
stronger, giving a modest increase in storm chances (still looking
at isolated to widely scattered storms). And low level moisture will
be increased, allowing for a low risk for tornadoes in addition to
hail and damaging winds.
Day
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
For Monday, the primary shortwave trough is forecast to lift into
the Plains with synopic-scale ascent overspreading the region in
tandem with a strong low-level jet. A highly unstable air mass is
expected by Monday afternoon to the east of the dryline with deep,
low-level moisture. While the current forecast track of the
shortwave trough keeps the strongest flow/shear to our north,
vertical wind shear will be more than sufficient for supercells
with the potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
tornadoes. With the primary wave passing by on Monday,
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be the greatest on this day.
By Monday night into Tuesday morning, a cold front will move
through, which should allow a line of thunderstorms to advance
from northwest to southeast. As a result, there will be a
continued threat of severe weather through the overnight hours.
Beyond Tuesday, an unsettled weather pattern is forecast to
persist across the Southern Plains with the potential for
additional shortwave troughs to move across the region with a
daily chance for thunderstorms through the end of the week.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area today into
tomorrow with gusty south winds and scattered mid to high clouds.
Additionally, low chances for showers and storms with strong and
erratic winds are expected across southwest OK and western north
TX this afternoon and evening. Low-level wind shear is expected to
increase this evening and continue into mid morning Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 72 88 71 88 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 70 98 70 94 / 20 0 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 70 94 70 92 / 20 10 10 10
Gage OK 65 99 69 97 / 20 0 10 10
Ponca City OK 70 91 72 91 / 20 10 0 0
Durant OK 71 89 72 89 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-
010-014>016-021-022-033>037.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ004-009-
010-014-021-022-033>036.
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
