Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Weather Forecast Discussion
192 FXUS64 KOUN 091046 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 546 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 - Low chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. - Dry with very warm temperatures this week before rain chances return again towards the end of the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Ridging in the west will continue to build and push the cut-off low over the Arklatex region towards the Gulf Coast. Daytime heating will bring highs in the 70s with a nice northeast breeze of 10 to 15 mph, along with increasing cumulus cloud development into the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms may develop this afternoon with MLCAPE values below 1500 J/kg. The main hazard would be lightning as weak northwesterly flow aloft will keep shear values low and unsupportive for severe weather. Mild and near-normal low temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s tonight with clearing skies and light north winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 As the ridge moves east with the northern stream flow, the cut-off low will become nearly stationary spinning over the Louisiana Coast. Moisture will become a problem over Oklahoma with decreasing chances for any additional rain chances. Weak subsidence, mostly sunny skies and light winds will give way to continued near normal highs in the 70s through the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 By Monday, the cut-off low will start to be absorbed into the ridge in the northern stream as another trough digs into the western CONUS. Weak ridging aloft through mid-week ahead of the next wave, which may bring a return to rain chances towards the end of the week. Lee troughing will develop Tuesday and strengthen into Wednesday with a return to southerly surface flow. Warm air advection will give way to above normal surface temperatures rising into the 80s and 90s by mid-week. Very warm temperatures aloft will inhibit storm chances through much of the week. Timing, strength and track of the next trough axis will play a key role in the chances for storms to return to the forecast area towards the end of the week and into next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Weak northerly winds will strengthen this morning, reaching 10-15 kts by 18Z at all sites. Scattered low to mid-level clouds are possible today, but should stay within the VFR range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 75 51 74 49 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 76 50 76 47 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 53 75 49 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 77 48 79 45 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 77 48 77 49 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 76 56 76 53 / 20 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...13