Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Weather Forecast Discussion
409 FXUS64 KOUN 031207 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 607 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 555 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 - Normal to above normal temperatures most of this week to well above normal going into the weekend. - Light rain possible Wednesday morning with freezing rain possible across northcentral Oklahoma. - Fire danger conditions will be increasing toward the end of this week. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 1254 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 A weak surface front originating lee of the Colorado Rockies currently stretched across northwest Oklahoma will continue to push through our area today. The air mass immediately behind this front is mostly moderate cooler Northwestern Pacific-based as we`ll still see about a 10 degree cooldown this afternoon from yesterday with above normal highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We should see some clearing of skies toward sunrise although northwest flow aloft will refill cloud cover with increasing mid to high cloudiness during the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1254 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Pressure heights further decrease overnight as our upper trough deepens a bit with cooler reinforcing air gradually approaching the Southern Plains from out of the U.S. Great Lakes Region. High pressure down at the surface will build in early Wednesday morning with a second cold front push during late morning into the afternoon. Interaction between the surface boundary and a mid-level shortwave coming down from western Kansas could produce some precipitation across northern into central Oklahoma on Tuesday morning. Mostly a "cold" rain while precipitating although northcentral Oklahoma could see a changeover to a wintry mix of freezing rain/snow to freezing drizzle due to partial melting within a warm nose along with a gradually drying out dendritic ice growth zone overhead. Will keep up to 30% POPs for Wednesday morning. Not expecting any strong cold air from this reinforcing air mass as diurnal warming will see afternoon temperatures rising to seasonably normal. By Thursday pressure heights are back on the rise as strong upper ridging builds across the Western U.S. High surface pressure settling in Wednesday night exits with breezy west-southwest winds increasing for Thursday with a warm front passage with temperatures rising well above normal for the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1254 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Upper ridging starts building in from the south as our warming trend persists Friday into the start of the weekend with gusty south winds by Saturday. Expecting unseasonably mild temperatures for both afternoons well in the 70s which is nearly 20 degrees warmer than normal for early February. A system coming down across the U.S. Midwest may push a cold front across the Central through Southern Plains on Sunday ending our warming trend yet still mild 60s temperatures. An upper low may close and cut-off over the Baja Peninsula on Sunday with increasing gulf moisture transport across Texas in the lower levels potentially forming a dryline across western Texas by Monday morning thus destabilizing western north Texas. A series of mid-level shortwave expelled from this stalled warm Pacific system will increase rain chances across our area on Monday with a few thunderstorms possible across our southwestern CWA near and south of the Red River. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 A cold front is pushing south through southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Some localized fog has developed south of the boundary, but this will become less likely as the front moves south and brings gusty north winds and lower humidity, so the fog (and MVFR stratus) will primary be an issue at KDUA for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Gusty north winds today will become light around sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 56 32 51 30 / 0 20 30 0 Hobart OK 60 32 55 28 / 0 20 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 63 34 58 31 / 0 10 20 0 Gage OK 59 30 54 26 / 0 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 51 29 50 25 / 0 20 20 0 Durant OK 62 33 54 31 / 10 0 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...68 SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...26