Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
|
|
Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
|
|
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
|
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
825
FXUS64 KOUN 051103
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
603 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 451 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
- Warm, above-normal temperatures and generally dry conditions are
expected through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
A cool, Autumn morning is ongoing across Oklahoma and north Texas
with light winds, clear skies, and temperatures in the 50s and
60s deg F. Temperatures will continue to lower before sunrise
with the potential for low-lying or sheltered areas in northern
Oklahoma dropping into the upper 40s deg F.
Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected today
following the departure of the upper-level trough that affected
the region the last two days. With abundant sunshine this
afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 70s (northeast)
to the mid 80s (southwest). The coolest weather will be across
north central Oklahoma, which will be in closer proximity to the
surface high in the Midwest.
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
A warming trend is expected Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons with
a strengthening low-level thermal ridge and the return to
southerly winds across the Southern Plains. Oklahoma and north
Texas will be on the southeast edge of an elongated ~585 to 586
dam subtropical ridge. High temperatures will generally be in the
80s deg F with western north Texas into southwest Oklahoma in the
low 90s deg F by Wednesday. These temperatures will be ~7 to 10
deg F above-normal for early October. Dry conditions will
continue.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Warm, above-normal temperatures and generally dry conditions will
continue through next weekend. There remains high confidence that
no significant cool down will occur, as indicated by minimal
spread in bias-corrected probabilistic guidance through Sunday.
Highs are forecast to remain in the 80s to low 90s deg F. There
is only a low chance (15%) of showers/storms Friday across parts
of western north Texas in association with an upper-level low in
Texas.
There are some signs of a potential pattern change by early next
week (October 13-15) among deterministic models and some ensemble
members, which could drive a cold front southward into the
Plains. As a result, the temperature spread increases markedly
(~30 deg F) in probabilistic guidance with the potential for an
appreciable cold front passage. Currently, there is a 20% (south)
to 50% (north) chance of high temperatures below 75 deg F on
Tuesday, October 13.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
All terminals should remain in a VFR category through the forecast
period. There is a chance that fog could develop late in the
forecast after 10Z across southern Oklahoma generally along the
Red River between terminals KSPS & KLAW. Surface winds will
generally be out of the north- northeast at 5-10 kts then going
light & variable after 00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 82 57 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 85 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 87 55 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 82 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 78 55 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 82 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
