Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
365
FXUS64 KOUN 191914
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
- Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near
normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through
early next week.
- Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next
week. A few strong storms may be possible late this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
The cold front has moved through all except the southeastern part
of the forecast area, and the significant thunderstorms have moved
out. But winds above the frontal boundary continue to be
south/southwesterly and isentropic lift is developing around the
295K/300K surfaces. A few showers are beginning to develop this
afternoon and are expected to increase as the southerly flow
above the front (and therefore the isentropic lift) increases this
tonight. Most models (the NAM being the exception) show very
little elevated instability, so severe weather is not expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Rain chances decrease early Wednesday as the isentropic lift
decreases. But then shower/storm chances will increase Wednesday
evening and especially Thursday as a mid-level trough approaches.
Rainfall looks to be widespread on Thursday with this system. We
will still be in this cooler post-frontal airmass, so no surface
instability is expected and severe weather potential is low.
Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east Thursday
night as the trough moves to the east. High temperatures will be
cool both Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
A subtropical jet, with perturbations within the broader mid-level
flow, will overspread the southern Plains through next weekend. This
continuous mid-level flow will support daily thunderstorm chances
through the weekend across our area. At this time, there is low
confidence in severe weather during this timeframe. Temperatures
will continue to be closer to seasonable through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
The cold front is through all TAF sites with north northeast winds
expected through the period. Breezy winds will diminish through
the day with wind speeds less than 15 knots by the afternoon.
Showers and storms are lingering through across portions of
central into southeast Oklahoma. Additional scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms may develop later this evening and into the
overnight hours. Confidence is low on the exact location of the
scattered showers, along with the probability for thunder chances.
Thus, the current TAF issuance includes PROB30s for showers and/or
storms at all sites except WWR/DUA where chances and confidence
were even lower. Amendments will be made where necessary.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 54 70 58 71 / 60 20 60 90
Hobart OK 52 73 56 73 / 50 20 80 80
Wichita Falls TX 56 76 60 76 / 60 30 80 80
Gage OK 46 70 51 69 / 0 20 80 80
Ponca City OK 52 67 55 70 / 40 10 60 80
Durant OK 62 78 65 76 / 40 30 50 90
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...23
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
