Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
828
FXUS64 KOUN 050814
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
- Scattered storms today. Isolated strong storms possible.
- Increasing rain and storm chances tonight and into the weekend.
A few storms could become strong to severe.
- Near to above normal temperatures heading into next week with a
potential for triple digit heat.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
A shortwave is moving northeast from Mexico toward southern Texas
this morning with showers and storms moving from Coahuila, Nuevo
Leon and Tamaulipas into Texas. The NAM and GFS forecast this wave
through northern Texas into Oklahoma this afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase as this wave approaches. The
lowest convective inhibition is forecast to be across the
southeast Oklahoma so the earliest/most likely precipitation
potential will be there. A number of CAMs (high-res NAM, ARW, Fv3,
some recent runs of the RAP) do show some scattered development
from western north Texas into southwest and north central Oklahoma
including areas farther north than where NBM has mentionable POPs
for today, so have expanded the area of 20% POPs farther north.
The models that do develop precipitation suggest that some locally
higher POPs might be needed somewhere along this axis. But the
question is exactly where, especially since CIN is expected to be
a bit higher in the west than in the southeast. Will at least get
the mention of showers/storms in the forecast and will watch the
trends through the day. Instability will be sufficient for some
isolated strong and perhaps marginally severe storms (it is June
after all), but wind shear is weak and organized severe weather
activity is not expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
There may be a brief minimum in precipitation coverage this
evening as the shortwave moves to the northeast and the airmass
diurnally stabilizes. However the larger scale upper low over
Chihuahua will begin to slowly drift northeastward into Texas and
toward the forecast area. Storm chances will increase again
tonight (primarily after midnight) with the approach of this low,
with shower/storm chances persisting through Sunday as this low
opens up into a trough and slowly moves over the area. With the
current project timing of this low/trough, rain chances will begin
decreasing Sunday afternoon and Sunday night from west to east.
Precipitable water values are projected to be very high on
Saturday. PW values of 1.5 inches or higher are forecast over
almost all of the area on Saturday with values of 2+ inches
forecast Saturday and or Saturday night across south central and
southeast Oklahoma and perhaps portions of central Oklahoma. With
this, there will be the potential of locally heavy rainfall,
especially in the southeast. There will be the potential of
multiple rounds of storms in the proximity of this slow-moving
upper low, but current CAMs suggest more occasional showers/storms
rather than longer-duration periods of storms in general. Local
flooding will be a concern, especially if duration of showers and
storms is more prolonged.
Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible again on
Saturday afternoon/Saturday night, with the best potential across
north Texas and southern Oklahoma where instability will be the
highest. Wind shear is still progged by most models to be
relatively weak Saturday/Saturday night, although somewhat higher
than today.
With the widespread clouds and precipitation, high temperatures
will be near or below early June normal temperatures. But that
will change.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
After the upper low/trough move to the northeast late Sunday,
upper ridging builds over the southern/central Plains and the
upper flow retreats to the north. This shifts us back into a
generally dry and warm pattern. The ECMWF produces some QPF
Monday night in north central Oklahoma with the potential of
storms moving in from Kansas, but otherwise the week looks dry.
Temperatures will warm through the week as the ridge builds with
triple digit highs returning to the west and the north central
Oklahoma wheat belt.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026
Latest observations indicate IFR ceilings have already developed
south of the Red River. MVFR conditions are expected to develop
at KDUA within the next few hours and potentially deteriorate to
IFR towards dawn. MVFR conditions are forecast to spread towards
parts of central and northern Oklahoma as well this morning.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return tomorrow morning near KDUA
and to the rest of the area by afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 89 70 82 68 / 20 20 70 90
Hobart OK 92 68 84 66 / 20 30 70 70
Wichita Falls TX 90 68 85 67 / 30 40 70 70
Gage OK 93 69 85 64 / 20 20 50 40
Ponca City OK 90 72 84 68 / 10 10 40 80
Durant OK 85 72 83 71 / 40 40 70 80
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...01
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
