Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
973
FXUS64 KOUN 021857
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
157 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 155 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025
- Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening
across northern Oklahoma.
- Warmer weather expected on Wednesday with highs back in the
80s to mid 90s.
- Another chance of thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025
Satellite and radar observations depict a pair of MCVs (mesoscale
convective vortices) this afternoon. One MCV is slowly moving
southward from Kansas into north central/northeast Oklahoma this
afternoon. Another MCV is moving southeast across east central
Oklahoma. An MCV essentially behaves like an upper-level (just
smaller-scale) that provides a source of lift for clouds and
precipitation. As a result, we`ll have a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon across the eastern half of
the area.
The potential hazards will be brief, heavy rainfall and cloud-to-
ground lightning. These showers and thunderstorms should
generally be diurnally-driven and should weaken this evening.
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025
By Wednesday, southerly winds will return and a low-level thermal
ridge will expand to the east ahead of an approaching cold front.
The expanded low-level thermal ridge, return to southerly winds,
and more sunshine/solar insolation will result in a warmer day.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages ranging from the mid
80s to mid 90s deg F.
The cold front will move through Wednesday night/early Thursday
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave trough
rotates across the Great Lakes region. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible across northern Oklahoma in association
with the front. The risk of severe weather should decrease near or
just after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
With the surface high quickly moving to the east and limited cold
air advection, no appreciable cool down is expected on Thursday.
As a matter of fact, some locations across southwest Oklahoma into
western north Texas may be hotter Thursday afternoon with a
strengthening low-level thermal ridge on the southwest periphery
of the dissipating cold front.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025
Another cold front is expected to move across the area Friday as a
stronger shortwave rotates across the northern Plains into the Great
Lakes region. Showers/storms will be possible with this front Friday
into Saturday. Models differ over the weekend into early next week
so a lot of uncertainty but it looks like rain chances could
continue across the area over the weekend into early next week.
With the front moving across the area Friday, a fairly decent
temperature gradient is forecast across the area with highs in the
mid 70s across northern OK and in the upper 80s/low 90s along the
Red River. Temperatures over the weekend into early next week will
once again be well below average with highs back into the 70s and
80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025
Mostly VFR at this point, though MVFR ceilings between 2,000 and
3,000 feet are still noted at spots in central and northern
Oklahoma. Expect those ceilings to generally get above 3,000 feet
as cloud cover thins and lifts this afternoon. A few more showers
are possible, particularly in southeastern Oklahoma through
nightfall. Fog chances look to be lower tomorrow than today with
less moisture depth, but added mentions for radiation fog to TAFs
near I-35.
Meister
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 62 84 64 85 / 0 0 20 0
Hobart OK 59 92 63 92 / 0 0 20 0
Wichita Falls TX 63 89 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 57 92 58 87 / 0 10 20 0
Ponca City OK 59 87 60 83 / 0 0 20 0
Durant OK 66 86 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...04
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
