Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
920
FXUS64 KOUN 141303
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
803 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Areas of dense fog are possible over northwest Oklahoma this
morning.
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
through Friday.
- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday into Saturday
with the next cold front.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Minor updated to the forecast this morning. Some small showers
have been developing in southwestern Oklahoma. These are small
enough and light enough that the potential for measurably
precipitation still looks to be low, but have added the mention of
some sprinkles this morning across northern, western and portions
of central Oklahoma. With this update have also increased cloud
cover across much of western and central Oklahoma given the
current conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The cold front that had moved into Oklahoma is currently undergoing
frontolysis with observations showing mainly easterly winds and
temperatures ranging from the upper-50`s (northwest) to the low-
70`s (southeast). A very moist BL, along with light winds, could
lead to the areas of dense fog over northwest Oklahoma this morning,
with visibilities improving by mid-morning as winds swing to the
south/southeast. At this hour, Alva and Woodward are already
reporting visibilities of 1/4 mile.
The H500 ridge strengthens over north Texas as a trough moves ashore
California today. As this occurs, the positively-tilted jet stream,
which is poised between these two features, lifts northward and dry
air advects into our area. This will aid in decreasing cloudiness
throughout the day and warmer temperatures. High temperatures will
be roughly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday for all but parts of
western north Texas, south-central Oklahoma, and southeastern
Oklahoma.
Thompson
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Warm and dry conditions are expected through Thursday night as we
remain under the influence of the upper ridge, with highs in the
80s. The aforementioned trough will progress slowly to the northeast
from California and will reach the northern Rockies by late Thursday.
As the surface pressure gradient contracts with the deepening of the
lee-side trough, southerly winds will increase on Thursday to about
15-20 mph with gusts to 20-30 mph (strongest winds will be felt over
northwest Oklahoma).
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The upper-level synoptic pattern begins to become more dynamic as
it typically does this time of year, and the frontal system set
to arrive this weekend will mark the first of a few for the long
term period with temperatures oscillating between warm and less
warm.
As the weakening upper trough reaches the northern plains, a jet
streak dives southeastward on the backside of the trough which will
prompt a shortwave to redevelop along the southern extent of the
trough axis over New Mexico. Breezy SSW winds are expected to become
more widespread on Friday as the LLJ shifts eastward over central
Oklahoma and as the surface low/trough axis shifts into central
Kansas with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. The increased return
flow will raise dewpoint temperatures back into the 60`s on Friday
afternoon and it will feel muggy with high temperatures in the mid-
to upper-80`s.
While details on the placement/strength/timing of the surface low
and dryline remain uncertain beyond Friday, the stage will be set
for shower and thunderstorm potential on Friday night and Saturday.
There is not yet a strong signal for severe storms. However, given
the proximity of the shortwave, surface features, and time of year,
we would not be surprised if marginally severe to severe storms
become more probable as the time draws closer. The surface low
pressure system is prog`d to track somewhere across Oklahoma on
Saturday and will be followed by a cold front. A secondary surge of
cooler air appears possible (seen at H850) behind a reinforcing cold
front. Thus Sunday should be the "coolest" day of the upcoming seven
days, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70`s to low 80`s.
Then, shortwave ridging moves over the plains on Monday with a warmup
into the 80s and 90s. Another cold front moves into our area towards
the middle of next week.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Low stratus and areas of fog will contribute to lowered category,
including periods of LIFR conditions, across west-central into
northern Oklahoma during the initial hours of the valid period
this morning. The most severe and persistent category reduction
is expected at KWWR, where VFR category may not be achieved until
the early afternoon hours.
Otherwise, scattered mid-level clouds and a modest southeast
breeze are expected across the region today, with dissipating sky
cover towards sunset this evening.
Safe travels!
Ungar
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 85 61 84 58 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 85 59 86 57 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 87 60 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 81 57 82 57 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 84 62 85 58 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 87 61 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>017.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
