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 Forecast Discussion

Weather Forecast Discussion


578
FXUS64 KOUN 231942
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
242 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Tonight...

Convergence along a surface boundary north of I-40 is rather
weak. A few CAMs hint at the possibility of a few weak
updrafts/storms, but chances remain lower than 10 percent. Cu
across the Texas Panhandle has better vertical development as well
as the Raton Mesa area. Expected any storms that form across this
region will dissipate before reaching western Oklahoma.
Otherwise, the heat will slowly abate through the evening.

Monday...

A southerly wind will be somewhat stronger on Monday with deeper
mixing expected and perhaps somewhat lower dewpoint temperatures
during the afternoon.  Still expect afternoon heat index values to
reach around 100-105.  The geography for the current Heat Advisory
on Monday still looks good.  Rain and storm chances for Monday will
be at or below 5 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024


Monday night and Tuesday...

Dry and very warm temperatures are expected Monday night. A cold
front will approach northern Oklahoma late Tuesday afternoon. By
evening, widely scattered thunderstorms may develop along the
boundary and move into parts of northern Oklahoma, with higher
chances across north central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will
weakening through the evening but may reach parts of central
Oklahoma by late evening or overnight. Before the front, another
hot day is expected with heat index values near 105+. Will not
issue a Heat Advisory for Tuesday at this time.


Wednesday...

High temperatures Wednesday may be slightly cooler behind a residual
boundary in northern Oklahoma.  It appears unlikely that this
boundary will result in the development of afternoon storms in our
area. However, upslope flow to our west is expected to result in
scattered afternoon convection.   Thunderstorms will likely weaken
through the evening, but some storms may move into northwestern
Oklahoma during the late evening/early overnight.  Afternoon heat
index values are expected to range from 105-110 Wednesday
afternoon.



Thursday...
The upper ridge to our west, may weaken some as a shortwave
trough moves across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
Afternoon thunderstorms that develop along the higher terrain may
reach parts of northwestern Oklahoma by late evening. Otherwise,
Thursday will bring yet another day of rather hot temperatures and
rather high heat index values (100-107).


Friday and Saturday...

Guidance remains consistent in tracking a shortwave trough across
the northern Plains on Friday. As a result, a rather breezy
southerly wind is expected. Afternoon humidity will remain fairly
high, especially across the eastern half of Oklahoma. Triple digit
heat and heat index values of 105 to near 110 are anticipated
most of Friday afternoon.

A cold front is expected to enter northern Oklahoma Friday night
with a slight increase in storms chances across northern Oklahoma.
Still a little unsure how quickly the effective front/boundary will
push southward and will be somewhat dependent on the amount of
convection that develops across Kansas Friday afternoon/evening.
For now, will go with the idea of better rain chances near the
front Saturday afternoon/evening with better chances across
western and northern Oklahoma. As the front moves southward, it
will also move closer to the center of an upper ridge and very
warm 500mb temperatures.







&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected until 241800. A weak front will keep
east to northeast winds at Kwwr and KPNC while south to southwest
winds occur to the south. The front will dissolve by early Monday
leading to south winds at most TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         77 101  78 101 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  77 100  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76 101  75 102 /  10  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     77 101  78 101 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ005>008-
     011>013-017>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...09

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion