Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
275
FXUS64 KOUN 240552
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Rain chances with a few embedded storms will continue this
morning across southeast Oklahoma. Additional showers and a few
storms possible through the day in northern Oklahoma.
- Drier and slightly cooler conditions expected today and
Thursday before temperatures warm back above average by this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to linger across
southeast Oklahoma early this morning. The bulk of the activity is
expected to remain subsevere but can`t rule out some marginally
severe hail over the next couple hours before activity moves east
of the area by sunrise. The main upper trough can be seen digging
southward across eastern Colorado and western Kansas and will
provide forcing for additional rain chances across mainly western
and northern Oklahoma this morning, becoming more isolated by this
afternoon. No severe weather is expected with this activity as
deeper moisture and better instability will have pushed south and
east of the area. Temperatures will be cooler today behind the
front, with highs in the mid to upper 70s for much of the area,
with low 80s expected near the Red River. Drier air filtering into
the region will also allow for cooler lows tonight, with readings
dipping into the 50s in most locations.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Dry and pleasant conditions are expected on Thursday as the trough
pulls further away, leaving light northerly winds and sunny skies in
place over the area. Highs will range from near 80 across northern
Oklahoma to low to mid 80s across our western north Texas counties.
A warming trend will commence on Friday as upper ridging builds into
the area from the west, with highs back into the mid to upper 80s
Friday afternoon along with light south winds.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Dry and seasonably warm weather will dominate the southern Plains
this weekend into at least early next week as upper ridging centers
itself overhead. Highs will approach 90 in some spots Saturday and
Sunday, dropping a few degrees Monday and Tuesday as models suggest
a backdoor front will try to work its way into the area.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Cold front continues to push south and east through southern
Oklahoma and north Texas this evening. Will keep a mention of tsra
at DUA though the first part of the night with MVFR ceilings
developing this evening across parts of the area in the wake of
the cold front. These lower ceilings may linger across northern
Oklahoma through much of the day Wednesday. Otherwise, gusty north
winds this evening will diminish overnight before increasing
again Wednesday morning with gusts over 20kts at most sites. Could
see some afternoon showers impact PNC on back side of storm
system.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 77 59 80 58 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 80 56 83 56 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 83 60 82 59 / 20 0 0 0
Gage OK 73 53 80 54 / 20 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 76 57 80 56 / 30 0 0 0
Durant OK 82 63 81 58 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
