Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Weather Forecast Discussion
007 FXUS64 KOUN 220447 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1047 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 121 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 - Significant warming trend this weekend into next week - Will remain dry, with elevated fire weather potential returning middle of next week out west && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 121 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 The low-level moisture response associated with the shortwave over Kansas has been stronger than anticipated, and the resulting stratus deck observed across west-central, central, southeastern Oklahoma and north Texas has been slow to advance eastward. As a result, this has lowered our chances for reaching the freezing mark today with highs in the mid/upper 20`s this afternoon over north-central and central Oklahoma. Latest CAMS suggest this plume of moisture exits our CWA by late evening with cloudiness diminishing by tonight. Low temperatures will mainly drop into the teens with some low 20`s for our for southern TX and OK counties. No cold headlines tonight as wind chills will remain above criteria. Lawton appears to have the best chance of nearing record low temperatures early tomorrow morning (16/1978). Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 121 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Mostly sunny skies and downslope flow raises afternoon temperatures into the mid-50`s (western Oklahoma/TX) and upper 40`s (central OK). A few high clouds are possible near and south of the Red River as a weak shortwave approaches southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Then, balmy conditions by Sunday with sunny skies and highs mostly in the 60`s. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 121 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Dry conditions and above-average temperatures persist through at least Thursday. Temperatures remain mild mid-week, despite a cold front that moves through on Wednesday. The most noticeable impact will be the gusty post-frontal winds and decreasing relative humidity as drier air moves into the area. Will then see elevated fire weather potential begin to creep into western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas on Wednesday and Thursday. Thompson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 The 5000 foot ceilings have eroded and shifted east through the evening and are generally now east of the TAF sites. Otherwise, there will be some cirrus across north Texas and southern Oklahoma and VFR conditions are expected. Light winds tonight will increase from the south/southwest Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 17 49 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 18 53 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 20 54 30 65 / 0 0 10 0 Gage OK 16 55 25 64 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 11 45 24 57 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 22 47 28 59 / 0 0 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...26