Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
182
FXUS64 KOUN 252346
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
646 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
- Strong to an isolated severe storm is possible Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances expected again Thursday and Friday.
- Elevated fire conditions may return Thursday and Friday across
northern Oklahoma and again Saturday across western Oklahoma and
adjacent portions of western north Texas.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
The cold front is currently stalled across southern Oklahoma this
afternoon with temperatures rising towards the 80s south of the
boundary. Increased low-level moisture from the Gulf with warm well-
above normal temperatures and weak instability, there is a small
chance for some isolated thunderstorms to develop ahead of the
frontal boundary this evening. Inverted "V" soundings with high LCLs
will make for damaging wind gusts the main threat, but large hail
cannot be ruled out with any storm this evening due to steep lapse
rates and weak buoyancy in the hail growth zone.
The cold front is anticipated to continue to push southward this
evening into Texas, while overrunning warm air advection brings
moist isentropic lift to portions of western north Texas and
southern Oklahoma. Increasing low-level winds will also help support
scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight along
a corridor roughly from Elk City to Durant. The highest chances for
a severe storm will be across south central Oklahoma with large hail
and damaging wind gusts the main threats. Additionally,
northwesterly flow aloft will create a southeast storm motion and
thus the potential for training storms over the same area, more
specifically where the highest chances are for thunderstorms to
develop in south central Oklahoma. PWAT values will be near 1" with
moderate to heavy rainfall possible, which could lead to localized
flooding concerns in addition to the training showers and storms.
Best timing for shower and thunderstorm development will be around
Midnight and continue through roughly the early afternoon hours
tomorrow before pushing south out of the area into north Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Wednesday will feature diminishing showers and storms through the
morning and into the afternoon hours. Lingering cloud cover through
the day Wednesday may keep temperatures nearly 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than today. A shortwave in the flow aloft will bring
increased rain chances again Wednesday night, mainly south of the
I- 40 corridor. Lack of lift and instability will give way to
mostly rain showers, but a few embedded weak thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out at this time. Precipitation chances will continue
south of I-40 Thursday with elevated fire weather danger in
northern Oklahoma with breezy south winds of 10 to 20 mph and
higher gusts possible.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
There continues to be a signal in the deterministic and ensemble
suite of a pattern change towards the end of the week into the
weekend.
A weak mid-level wave will approach the area Friday, bringing
additional rain chances most of the area. The greater chances are
confined to the southern half of the area. Another wave is
forecast to move through the area over the weekend. There is still
model inconsistencies, especially with the dryslot. If the
positioning of the drier air is further west, there is a signal
for strong to severe storms along and east of the I-35 corridor
on Saturday with all hazards possible.
With these systems, surface winds are expected to be strong
enough to warrant at least elevated fire weather conditions
through the weekend.
Bunker
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Showers and thunderstorms that have developed in south central
Oklahoma may affect KDUA within the next couple of hours.
Otherwise showers and storms are expected to become more
widespread and affect more of north Texas and central and southern
Oklahoma (including areas around KSPS, KLAW, KOUN, KOKC and KCSM)
overnight. The storm chances at the northern Oklahoma airports are
too low to mention. Will have some MVFR (and maybe localized IFR)
conditions with the showers and storms, but stratus with MVFR
ceilings will also become more likely in the south (especially
KDUA) Wednesday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 54 76 57 79 / 50 40 10 10
Hobart OK 52 79 57 80 / 50 30 10 20
Wichita Falls TX 56 82 59 80 / 50 30 10 40
Gage OK 45 78 54 83 / 20 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 49 78 56 83 / 10 10 10 10
Durant OK 57 74 57 77 / 80 70 0 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
