Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Weather Forecast Discussion
918
FXUS64 KOUN 210444
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1044 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1019 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
- Cold weather advisory for all of the area tonight into Tuesday
morning.
- Warmer temperatures through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
The cold front is moving through northern Oklahoma with the band
of moderate snow near the front. It is important to know also that
the radars are not detecting all of the snow that is occurring.
The snow development is occurring at a low enough level that the
radar beam is too high to detect the snow one the beam gets far
enough from the radar. We have been seeing this near Gage where
radar do not show many echoes but visibility has recently been
down to 1/4 mile in snow. These bands of snow will continue to
move south with the front, although the forcing looks to diminish
through the evening so the areas of snow are expected to become
less widespread through the evening. POPs from NBM seemed to
diminish things too quickly per many of the model solutions so
have kept POPs higher this evening than the NBM would have
suggested. Still expect the area of snow accumulation to primarily
be within the area where we have the Winter Weather Advisory so
have left this unchanged, but we will of course be watching the
trends.
The snow will eventually diminish and clouds will also diminish
overnight allowing for increased radiational cooling. Lows will be
near (or even below) zero in the northwest to the mid-upper teens
in the southeast. There will still be enough wind to bring wind
chill values down as low as around -15 in the northwest to around
+5 in western north Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. Have expanded
the Cold Weather Advisory to encompass the entire forecast area.
With wind chill values already near or below zero in northwest
Oklahoma behind the front, we will now have the Cold Weather
Advisory begin at 6 PM as opposed to midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Another cool days is expected on Tuesday, although winds will be
shifting to southwest and begin to push the colder air out of the
forecast area. Most areas should at least approach if not rise
above freezing on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
moderate as the cold high pressure area moves toward the east
coast on Thursday and highs Thursday are expected to be in the 40s
to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
A warming trend back up into the 50s is expected across the area
as southerly winds return late in the week and mid-level ridging
builds in. For the most part, overnight lows will stay in the 20s
to 30s, given the clear skies that are expected. The long term
will be mainly dry, outside of the low chance for showers across
far southern Oklahoma over the weekend.
Bunker
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Bands of snow gradually ending across the area this evening as
skies clear from northwest to southeast this evening and
overnight. Most locations will start with VFR ceilings and become
clear before sunrise Tuesday morning. Cold front working south
through the area will have a period of gusty winds before winds go
light later tonight. Surface trough will move east across the area
during the day tomorrow with southwest winds picking up by midday
and early afternoon. Some gusts of 20-25kts expected across the
north and west by afternoon. Winds stay gusty after 00Z tomorrow
evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 9 33 23 45 / 30 0 0 0
Hobart OK 6 34 21 50 / 40 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 14 34 22 50 / 20 0 0 0
Gage OK -5 34 19 44 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 0 32 21 44 / 40 0 0 0
Durant OK 17 33 21 46 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for OKZ004>048-
050>052.
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...30