Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
220
FXUS64 KOUN 251827
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
127 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
- First wave of rainfall potential will primarily stay west of the
area.
- The next chances of rain will be across the northwest half of
the area Monday Night/Tuesday, and areawide late Thursday
through the end of the week.
- Above normal temperatures through the upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Stubborn upper ridge continues to control the weather across
Oklahoma and much of the eastern half of Texas. It is also keeping
the upper low to our west from pushing east, thus the rain remains
west of the area. By later today the closed low will begin to open
up and then lift northeast out of the four corners area into the
central Plains. This will keep any precip confined to far northwest
Oklahoma today and tonight.
In addition, the upper ridge will allow temperatures once again
today to rise well above normal in spite of the extensive high and
increasing mid clouds spreading east and northeast in advance of the
upper low. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 70s and lower
80s.
For tonight the upper low will continue to lift north and northeast
across Colorado and into the northern Plains. Skies will remain
cloudy however and with the south winds temperatures will only fall
back into the mid/upper 50s to near 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
By Monday another southern stream shortwave moves north out of north
central Mexico into southwest Texas. This will initially provide
widespread cloud cover, but Gulf moisture will be rather meager as
off-shore winds have limited northward transport. The cloud cover
will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler during the day, but
still well above normal. We could see a few stray showers across
western Oklahoma, but most locations will remain dry Monday.
Although surface moisture will be slow to respond, deeper moisture
above the surface will move north into the area as the shortwave
approaches Monday night and Tuesday. This should provide an
opportunity for rainfall(amounts remain light) further east into the
body of the state, although the higher rain chances will be across
western third of the state including western north Texas. Highest
rainfall amounts would likely remain across western and northwestern
Oklahoma and those would likely be around a quarter to half an inch.
Even with the potential for precip and extensive cloud cover,
temperatures will again climb into the middle 70s to lower 80s
Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Any low-level cold air continues to be stuck in the northwestern
United States or under the large scale mean trough over the
western U.S., so our above average temperatures will persist
through the rest of the week. A wave in the southwesterly flow
aloft is shown by most models to approach late this week bringing
more widespread rain chances Friday into Saturday. Temperatures
will be modulated by clouds and precipitation, but will continue
to be above average for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. South to
southeast winds will have some afternoon gustiness particularly in
northwest Oklahoma, but otherwise remain closer to 5 to 15 mph.
Mid to high clouds continue to invade the area. There`s a very low
chance for a few showers to sneak into western Oklahoma, but not
enough confidence to include in TAF.
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 57 77 59 76 / 0 0 20 30
Hobart OK 58 76 59 76 / 0 0 40 50
Wichita Falls TX 58 80 60 80 / 0 0 20 40
Gage OK 56 75 55 75 / 10 20 80 20
Ponca City OK 57 78 58 75 / 0 0 30 50
Durant OK 55 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...14
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
