Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
966
FXUS64 KOUN 250637
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
137 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
- Excessive heat continues tomorrow, with less hot conditions
towards the midweek.
- Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning across northwest Oklahoma.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
A few lingering showers across the southeast this morning, otherwise
mainly dry conditions expected through much of the day. There is a
shortwave trough that will move across Kansas, but currently it
appears that any precip associated with this feature will remain to
our north across Kansas.
Elsewhere, the weak frontal boundary located near the I-44 corridor
may move slightly farther south today with only minimal impacts to
temperatures across the north. To the south of the boundary another
very hot day with near record heat is expected. Still some
uncertainty with regards to how far north to go with heat headlines,
but will at least extend the Heat Advisory northward to near the I-
40 corridor and upgrade parts of southwest Oklahoma and portions of
western north Texas to Extreme Heat Warning.
With the heat and low afternoon humidity, there will be some areas
of elevated fire weather conditions across the south today. Lighter
wind speeds should keep things in check a bit more than yesterday.
Will go with a Fire Danger Statement for portions of this area for
today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Attention turns to our west this evening as a complex of storms is
expected to develop across the High Plains this afternoon and then
move eastward into northwest and western Oklahoma this evening.
There will be a risk of severe weather with this complex mainly in
the form of damaging wind gusts. This complex is expected to weaken
as it moves east and southeast into the the state Tuesday night,
with only very low chances of anything making it into the I-44
corridor overnight.
As the shortwave moves through the area on Wednesday, a reinforcing
cold front will surge south and bring in a slightly "cooler"
airmass. This will result in temperatures across at least the
northern half of Oklahoma topping out in the low to middle 90s
Wednesday afternoon with some low 100s across the south and into
north Texas.
The front could be a focus for additional thunderstorm development
Wednesday afternoon. Location of the front by afternoon will be key,
but south-central and southeast Oklahoma will have the best
opportunity of seeing any of this activity.
Another shortwave will drop south across the High Plains into west
Texas Wednesday night. As this occurs another complex of storms will
move south with it. This may reach as far east as western Oklahoma.
Otherwise, the remainder of the area Wednesday night and Thursday
will be dry, but a little cooler, as temperatures remain in the 90s
across much of the area Thursday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
By Friday, the upper ridge begins to expand back eastward. As this
occurs, a stronger shortwave will move through the central Rockies
into the central and northern Plains and south winds return. As this
occurs we will see temperatures respond back into the triple digits
by the weekend with hot, dry and breezy conditions. The models do
hint that this eastward expansion will be rather limited as the
upper high continues to transition eastward and becomes centered
over the southeast part of the CONUS. If this does in fact occur, it
would put the southern Plains into a southwest flow pattern and
perhaps bring additional rain chances as we go into early September.
Until then, a continuation of hot and mainly dry conditions will
continue.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Low chance for showers early on Wednesday morning across
southeast Oklahoma (KDUA) will be followed by better chances for
thunderstorms late in the day across western Oklahoma (and
eventually more of central and northern Oklahoma after the current
valid period). Gusty-erratic winds will be possible with activity
in the latter regime.
Otherwise, a surface front and associated reinforcement/modification
will create varied wind direction for terminals near and south of
the I-40 corridor from the early morning into afternoon on
Wednesday. Low-level wind shear also remains a concern ahead of
this feature across a similar area through daybreak.
Safe travels!
Ungar
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 105 74 95 72 / 0 20 20 10
Hobart OK 108 74 98 71 / 0 30 20 10
Wichita Falls TX 109 77 101 73 / 10 10 20 10
Gage OK 99 67 92 64 / 10 50 30 40
Ponca City OK 96 72 93 69 / 20 30 20 10
Durant OK 106 77 102 74 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for OKZ021>023-027>035-038>043-046>048-050>052.
Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for OKZ036-037-044-045.
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ083-084-087>089.
Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ085-086-090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
