Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
300
FXUS64 KOUN 040939
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
439 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 432 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon
across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
- Low shower and storm chances late Tuesday and Wednesday across
northern Oklahoma with increasing chances late this week.
- Hot midweek particularly across southern Oklahoma and north
Texas.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
Elevated fire weather will be the main story today with near
advisory level heat being a secondary concern.
Low afternoon humidities in the 15 to 20 percent range will drive an
area of elevated RFTIs across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent
north Texas. With ERCs near the 90th percentile, we will be issuing
an RFD for these counties. Winds will generally be south to south
southwesterly at around 10 mph. Similar to previous forecasts,
dewpoints were lowered from the NBM to account for the expected
eastward mixing of drier air.
Afternoon heat indices are forecast to reach into the 100-105 degree
range with HREF probabilities of reaching 105 degrees around 10-20%
across most of the forecast area. The greatest impacts will be in
southeast Oklahoma where clear skies and calm winds will result in
high WBGT risk.
With a surface front approaching from Kansas, today will see a very
low chance (10%) for a few showers and storms to develop this
afternoon and evening in northwest Oklahoma. The main impacts will
be a risk for lightning fire starts, potential for dry downbursts,
and some relief from the heat with associated cloud cover. Little to
no rain accumulation is expected. These very low chances will
continue overnight into early Wednesday morning, spreading east
across northern Oklahoma.
Day
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
With the cold front stalling near the OK / KS border, rain
chances will begin to increase Wednesday and Thursday. Increased
surface moisture will also result in higher heat indices (while
mitigating against any fire risk).
For Wednesday, keeping 10-20% rain chances through the day across
northern Oklahoma, associated with the aforementioned front. Again,
rainfall amounts will likely be meager to none, with lightning and
potential downburst winds being the main impacts of any storms that
develop.
Higher chances (30-60%) arrive Thursday night as a subtle upper
level wave moves across the area, mainly impacting northern
Oklahoma.
Heat impacts will be a bit more complicated with potential rain and
cloud cover offering some relief in the north (particularly on
Thursday), while higher dewpoints push heat indices up. Heat impacts
will be most likely along and near the Red River.
Day
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
Rain chances (20-40%) continue into Friday as the upper wave moves
through and the ridge is briefly shoved to the west. With the higher
chances of rain, uncertainty in max temperatures is higher for the
late week period, particularly across northern Oklahoma. As we move
into early next week, it does appear the ridge starts to shift back
east, bringing back a hot and dry pattern.
Day
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
VFR conditions continue through the period with southeasterly winds
veering to the south/southwest by late morning. A frontal boundary,
which currently remains over Kansas, is anticipated to move into far
northwest Oklahoma by late afternoon or early evening. Considerable
uncertainty exists with frontal progression, but the latest guidance
suggests the boundary remains northwest of KWWR. There is a low chance
of gusty winds near KWWR by evening as a few showers or storms try to
develop near the boundary. Measurable precipitation is unlikely as rain
will likely evaporate, but the evaporative cooling could lead to
strong, gusty winds.
Thompson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 103 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 104 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 105 77 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 101 71 101 70 / 10 10 10 20
Ponca City OK 100 77 100 74 / 0 10 30 20
Durant OK 102 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...01
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
