Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
|
|
Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
|
|
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
|
|
|
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
902
FXUS64 KOUN 032301
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
601 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
- Air Quality Alert in effect for the OKC Metro for Friday due
to high ozone concentrations
- Hot and dry conditions persist through next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
As of 2PM, the surface observation network and GOES-16 Air Mass
RGB imagery showed the quasi-stationary cold front extended from
Smith Center (north-central Kansas) to near Garden City, with
temperatures in the upper-70`s over northwest Kansas. This boundary
is expected to shift slowly southward and is now prog`d to reach
northwest Oklahoma late evening (close to midnight). Short-term
guidance, plus the NAM, have trended slower with the frontal
progression. Therefore, we modified hourly wind grids to be a
consensus of these (CONSSHORT) rather than NBM to show the later
arrival time. Due to the weak nature of the front, the only
sensible impact for areas near the I-44 corridor will be a wind
shift to the north. The boundary then dissipates early afternoon
just to the east of I-44. High temperatures will range from near
80 degrees over far northwest Oklahoma to mid-90`s for areas
along/south of a line from Clinton to Ponca City.
In coordination with Oklahoma DEQ, an Air Quality alert has been
issued for the Oklahoma City metro on Friday due to high ozone
concentrations.
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
The mid-level ridge remains parked over New Mexico and Arizona
throughout the long term period, with the jet stream and series of
upper lows tracking across Canada and the northern U.S. tier.
The stagnant pattern over our area, unfortunately, means the hot
and dry conditions are likely to persist through next week with
high temperatures in the 80`s and 90`s. Another cool front moves
into northern Oklahoma on Sunday with drier air moving into the
area on Sunday night, which could lead to somewhat cooler low
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday mornings (50`s).
Long-range guidance hints at a pattern change beginning end of
next week and into next week as an upper trough moves from the
Pacific and over California. However, this is not modeled to occur
until next weekend, which would not impact our weather until
well-beyond this period.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024
VFR conditions to continue.
Winds will diminish quickly around 00Z this evening. A front will
approach northwest Oklahoma overnight with winds ahead of the
front shifting to the southwest and then to the north behind the
front. This will occur just before sunrise at WWR and will
approach the I-44 corridor by midday. Wind speeds will remain
light. Skies will remain clear.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 64 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 62 92 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 64 95 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 55 83 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 62 90 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 62 93 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
