Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
607
FXUS64 KOUN 090657
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1257 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026
- Snow likely this afternoon into the evening across northwest
Oklahoma. Some snow accumulation and travel impacts possible
across the far northwest.
- Near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected
this weekend into next week with occasional elevated fire
weather conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026
A cooler and drier air mass has advected southward in the wake of
yesterday`s cold front. An upper-level low, currently near
Albuquerque, will move eastward into the Southern Plains today.
Synoptic-scale ascent associated with the upper-level low will
result in the development of a band of precipitation across the
High Plains that will move into northwest Oklahoma around midday.
As this band of precipitation moves into far northwest Oklahoma,
surface temperatures are expected to cool as the vertical column
saturates below the cloud base through melting and sublimation.
This should allow temperatures to drop to near freezing with snow
likely near the Kansas/Texas state line this afternoon. There will
likely be a tight gradient of snowfall with this mesoscale band
as wetbulb temperatures increase to the east and south into
Oklahoma. In other words, it`ll become a mix of rain/snow and then
all rain with south and east extent.
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for Harper County for up to
1" of snowfall from noon to 9 PM. While soil temperatures are
relatively warm (mid 40s deg F), there is the potential for
moderate snowfall within the band that could cause some travel
impacts (i.e., reduced visibility and slick spots). While most of
the accumulation will be on grassy surfaces given the warm soil
temperatures and surface temperatures near freezing, some
accumulation on roadways is possible in any heavier bands.
Confidence for impacts decreases markedly farther to the south and
east of Harper County given warmer temperatures will likely
result in a rain/snow mix as noted above. As a matter of fact,
even within Harper County, it`s possible there could be a gradient
of snowfall.
The band of precipitation will gradually decrease in intensity in
the evening as it moves eastward. Light snow is possible as far
east as north central Oklahoma. However, the probability for
impacts is lower with little to no accumulation expected.
Outside of northwest Oklahoma, it`ll be a cooler day--but still
above normal for most locations. Highs temperatures will generally
be in the 50s and 60s deg F.
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026
A reinforcing cold front will move through in the wake of today`s
system, which will result in a seasonable day on Saturday with
highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s deg F. Drier air behind the
front, combined with breezy northerly winds, will result in
elevated fire weather conditions across western Oklahoma into
north Texas as relative humidity values fall below 20%. These
winds will become light on Sunday as the surface high passes by.
This should mitigate any fire weather risk on Sunday.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026
Warmer, above-normal temperatures return early next week as
southerly winds return and a downslope-warmed air mass advect into
the Southern Plains. Temperatures by Monday and Tuesday are
expected to be back into the 60s deg F with some locations
potentially near 70 deg F by Tuesday. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible on both days with veered, dry return flow.
By midweek, a cold front is expected to move through as a trough
amplifies across the Great Lakes region. At this time, the chance
of precipitation looks to be low/near zero with the front.
Cooler weather is expected in the front`s wake for Thursday and
Friday.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
The stratus across northeastern Oklahoma have shifted east of
KPNC, so for the evening we expect generally mid and high level
clouds and VFR conditions overnight. A storm system approaches
with lower clouds developing (with MVFR ceilings) and spreading
into northwest Oklahoma during the day on Friday with increasing
chances of precipitation with a mix of rain and snow, including
KWWR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 55 32 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 53 28 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 64 33 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 41 21 50 22 / 60 30 0 0
Ponca City OK 50 28 51 24 / 10 20 0 0
Durant OK 64 37 54 32 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening
for OKZ004.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
