Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
465
FXUS64 KOUN 211120
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
620 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
- Heat index values up to 100 through next week across much of
our area.
- Breezy southerly winds Saturday and Sunday, especially across
western Oklahoma and into western north Texas.
- Slight chance of showers and storms Monday afternoon/evening
across far northwest Oklahoma with increased chances again by
mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
Hot and muggy conditions will continue today with 90s on repeat and
dewpoints still lingering in the 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices will
rise towards triple digits with a few areas as high as 100 to 105
degrees. The upper ridge will meander east with a trough axis
digging in across the western CONUS. Lee troughing will develop with
surface cyclogenesis across northeast Colorado. The 850mb jet will
stretch across the Central and Southern Plains with 30 to 40 knots
above the surface. Daytime heating and mixing will give way to warm
and breezy downsloping southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher
gusts up to 30 to 40 mph possible. These breezy conditions will help
to provide some relief to the heat, but with sunny skies, heat
related illnesses are of concern with extended time spent
outdoors.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
Sunday will be a rinse and repeat of Saturday with hot, muggy and
breezy conditions. Slight stronger breezy south winds of 20 to 30
mph with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph are possible. Sub-tropical
moisture will remain to the west and north. The main trough axis
that brought breezy winds over the weekend will eject northeastward
across the Northern Plains. A cutoff wave will setup over California
with weak cyclogenesis developing in Colorado and continued breezy
south winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Despite the
winds, conditions will continue to remain muggy going into next
week. There is a slight chance some of the sub-tropical moisture
will bring showers and storms into far northwest Oklahoma Monday
afternoon/evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
With the blocking ridge in the southeast CONUS, continued Gulf
moisture will pump into the Southern Plains with muggy and hot
conditions expected to continue through next week. High temperatures
will be in the 90s with heat indices nearing triple digits each day.
Not much recovery during the overnight hours either with daily low
temperatures in the 70s. Increased precipitation chances will return
again toward mid-week and into the end of the week with the trough
near California sliding eastward over the Central Plains and
bringing the sub-tropical moisture farther east into portions of
northern and western Oklahoma, along with portions of western north
Texas. Additionally, low end chances for additional rain chances
with the ridge bringing weak isentropic showers and storms to
portions of eastern and central Oklahoma. Exact confidence on this
activity remains low, thus no mentionable precipitation chances
exist quite yet, but daily chances may end up persisting through the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
Scattered to broken clouds across northeast Texas, may bring
MVFR ceilings to DUA for a few hours this morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with a gusty
southerly wind. Although the wind may remain a little gusty
this evening, low-level wind shear may develop after 3-5Z Sunday
as winds relax some.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 92 74 91 74 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 96 74 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 95 75 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 94 73 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 93 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 93 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
