Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
122
FXUS64 KOUN 240002
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
602 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 551 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
- Rainfall expected late today into Monday along with a risk of
locally heavy rainfall.
- Turning cooler towards middle of this week with low
temperatures near the freezing mark.
- Much colder weather arrives next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Water vapor imagery depicts an intense upper-level low, currently
centered near the Arizona/New Mexico border, lifting
northeastward toward the Plains. Synoptic-scale ascent ahead of
the aforementioned low is resulting in widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the Texas panhandle.
As this ascent spreads eastward in tandem with the upper-level
low, a band of showers and thunderstorms will approach western
Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. This band of
showers/storms will move eastward across the entire area this
evening into the overnight hours with widespread rainfall. For
most locations, it`ll be one band of showers/storms before the
dry slot ends rain from west to east. The exception will be across
south central and southeast Oklahoma. Continued redevelopment is
expected overnight into Monday morning with isentropic ascent/warm
air advection associated with a low-level jet in the warm conveyer
belt.
With respect to hazards, there will be enough instability for
embedded thunderstorms, so cloud-to-ground lightning will be a
hazard for everyone. Across western north Texas into far southwest
Oklahoma, instability (MUCAPE ~750 to 1000+ J/kg) and shear
(effective bulk shear ~30 to 40 knots) will be sufficient for
strong to severe thunderstorms with a threat for hail with the
most intense cores late this afternoon into this evening. Across
southeast/south central Oklahoma, continued development and the
potential for training thunderstorms will result in a flooding
risk overnight into Monday morning. The flooding risk isn`t
overly high given the ongoing drought and forecast amounts (on
average around 2"), but training storms and recent rainfall will
result in some risk (especially in locations susceptible to
flooding when heavy rainfall occurs).
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Rain with embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing Monday morning
across southeast Oklahoma and will gradually exit by late morning.
Some wrap-around showers are possible across north central into
central Oklahoma, but any rainfall associated with the wrap around
will be light. Skies will clear from west to east with sunny skies
expected across western Oklahoma and north Texas by afternoon.
Areas near and east of I-35 will likely not go to full sun before
sunset. As a result of the sunny skies, combined with westerly
winds behind the Pacific front, temperatures across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas will likely rise into the 70s deg
F. Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the 60s deg F.
By Tuesday, a stronger cold front will move through as a shortwave
trough passes by the northern Plains. The front will shift the
winds to the north and steady and/or falling temperatures are
likely by late Tuesday afternoon across far northwest Oklahoma
due to cold air advection. This front will bring a colder air mass
southward Tuesday night into Wednesday. A freeze is possible
across at least the northwest half of Oklahoma Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
This secondary front will bring a colder Canadian airmass into the
area for mid-week. Wednesday will see a breezy north wind and cooler
temperatures. This will be somewhat short-lived as the surface high
quickly shifts east during the day Wednesday with south winds
returning from west to east late in the day. Temperatures should
rebound some on Thanksgiving day close to normal for late November.
Gusty south winds expected Friday into Saturday with a few degrees
of warming both days. These winds will bring increasing amounts of
gulf moisture into the area. This moisture along with shortwave
trough and increasing waa Friday night may lead to another chance of
rain developing across the area, which then continues into the
weekend.
Many of the models are then showing a very strong Canadian airmass
plunging south through the Plains, bringing by far the coldest air
of the season to Oklahoma and north Texas by late Saturday into
Sunday. The bigger question is will there be any wintry precip
possible during this time frame. Models differ significantly both
from model to model and run to run with this possibility this far
out, but will be something to keep a close eye on.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
A line of showers and storms continues to move east across
Oklahoma and north Texas with a few stronger embedded storms
capable of gusty and erratic winds, brief heavy rainfall and small
hail. Expect some MVFR to IFR conditions with any rain/storms.
Behind the precipitation late tonight into the mid-morning hours
tomorrow, low clouds and fog will develop with IFR to LIFR
conditions. Dense fog may be possible across portions of western
and into central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north
Texas, but confidence is too low on exact locations at this time.
The deck of low clouds will begin to clear late morning and into
the afternoon hours tomorrow from west to east with a return of
VFR conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 51 65 45 62 / 90 30 0 0
Hobart OK 50 68 40 66 / 70 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 54 72 45 68 / 100 40 0 0
Gage OK 46 63 36 58 / 30 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 49 62 46 61 / 80 50 10 0
Durant OK 54 68 50 69 / 100 90 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
