Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Fri, Oct 07, 2022 - Sat, Oct 08, 2022 D7Mon, Oct 10, 2022 - Tue, Oct 11, 2022
D5Sat, Oct 08, 2022 - Sun, Oct 09, 2022 D8Tue, Oct 11, 2022 - Wed, Oct 12, 2022
D6Sun, Oct 09, 2022 - Mon, Oct 10, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center

 Forecast Discussion