Weather Forecast Discussion

523
FXUS64 KOUN 142355
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
555 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Widespread rain event expected from today through Sunday, with
  the entire area seeing measurable rain and a maximum swath of
  about 1-1.5 inches of rain south of I-40.

- Chilly on Sunday; slow warm-up thereafter.

- Rain/storm chances return by the end of the week.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 102 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Showers are on the increase early this afternoon across western OK
as the trough axis over the rockies continues to progress closer to
the area. A dry boundary layer will help keep things dry across
central/eastern parts of the area until later this afternoon into
this evening with rainfall intensities then expected to increase
later tonight as warm advection maximizes over the area.
Thunderstorms are unlikely across most of OK as instability is
quite limited, but with a bit better instability further south we
could see a few storms make it into western north TX tonight with
the potential for some small (possibly accumulating) hail with
the stronger storm cores.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 102 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Showers will continue into the day on Sunday as the upper low moves
over the area, with forcing then waning through the afternoon as the
low moves to our east and weakens. As far as rainfall amounts, the
12z model guidance has made a bit of a southward shift once again,
with some CAMs also showing a fairly sharp gradient on the northeast
side of the precip shield as it runs into drier air to the east. Our
latest forecast has generally 0.25-1.00" from I-40 north (with
decreasing amounts with northward extent) and 1.00-1.50" along and
south of I-40. Locally higher amounts are possible in areas that
see thunderstorms, with the best chance for this being across
western north TX into far southern OK. Widespread/significant
flooding remains unlikely with this system, but ponding of water
on roadways and minor flooding in poor drainage areas could occur.
Temperatures will remain quite chilly through the day on Sunday
with east winds and extensive clouds/showers around. Readings will
likely be stuck in the low 40s across much of the area,
potentially making it closer to 50 degrees in north-central OK and
western north TX where rain is forecast to be lighter Sunday
afternoon.

Showers will continue to diminish and become more isolated Sunday
evening, with dry conditions expected by Monday morning. Clouds will
take a little longer to clear out, but expect more and more breaks
in the clouds by Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will be cool,
though not as cold as Sunday, generally in the low to mid 50s.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 122 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Long-term forecast impacts: Gradual warm-up, with rain chances
returning by the end of the week.

Discussion: Shortwave ridging returns briefly to the Plains on
Tuesday. This will help clear the mechanism from the cold/wet/cloudy
pattern. With southwest flow building over the northern Plains
during the day, winds here will shift southerly and potentially get
rather breezy. All of this suggests dry and slightly warmer weather.

That southwest mid-level flow will dominate more of the Plains by
Wednesday. Breezy conditions and warmer temperatures are likely to
follow each of Wednesday and Thursday with more substantial moisture
return occurring by day 3 or 4 of the return flow regime. With a
favorable upper-air pattern and increasing moisture, storm chances
will increase on Thursday/Friday, though a specific window or
location for those storms has yet to emerge on ensemble data.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A Pacific-based upper low system currently across the Southern
High Plains will transit across our forecast area bringing
widespread light to moderate rain with low ceilings and visibility
reductions in rain across our terminals. Expecting our terminals
in western Oklahoma and western north texas to reduce to a MVFR
category between 04-06Z then further reduce to an IFR to LIFR
category between 06-10Z as ceilings further lower. Will expect
terminals in central & southeast Oklahoma (KOKC, KOUN & KDUA) to
remain in a VFR category through 08Z before conditions
deteriorate. Conditions may not deteriorate in northcentral
Oklahoma impacting terminals KSWO & KPNC until closer to 12Z.
Expecting most terminals to persist in a IFR to LIFR category
through the forecast period although could see terminals KPNC &
KSWO return to a VFR category by 18Z. Although a stable
environment should keep most of the precipitation as just rain,
can`t rule out an embedded thunderstorm at terminal KSPS through
04Z due to some instability. No surface boundary with this system
so expecting surface winds to stay southeast around 10 kts with
winds backing more easterly sometime between 12-18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  40  43  40  54 / 100 100  40   0
Hobart OK         41  44  40  52 / 100  90  30   0
Wichita Falls TX  44  48  42  53 / 100  80  30   0
Gage OK           35  42  35  52 / 100  80  20   0
Ponca City OK     40  47  36  57 /  60  80  20   0
Durant OK         41  46  42  60 /  90 100  60   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...68

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion