Weather Forecast Discussion

035
FXUS64 KOUN 211100
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
500 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 401 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

- Seasonable and dry through the weekend.

- Next chance (30-70%) of rain arrives Monday evening into
  Tuesday, generally east of I-35.

- Mild temperatures for Christmas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Sunny skies are expected today with a return of southerly winds
and temperatures not as chilly as yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Southerly winds continue and even warmer temperatures are expected
on Sunday. The best moisture advection may be a little later than
previously thought, so skies still look to be mostly sunny on
Sunday, but the south winds will begin transporting low- level
moisture north. Stratus clouds are expected to move into the area
overnight Sunday night which will likely persist over the are into
Monday with the near-solstice low sun angle not being as
effective at contributing to stratus erosion. Despite the clouds,
it will still be a mild day as a warmer airmass spreads in from
the south and the cooler air is displaced to the northeast.
Depending on how deep the moisture is, we could see the potential
of some drizzle or very light rain on Monday, but will not add
POPs with the current expectation that the moisture return will be
relatively shallow an mid-level trough moving toward the area may
not be as well-timed to provide lift as advertised yesterday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

By Monday evening, showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop with the moisture return and the mid- level trough
approaching providing sufficient lift. After this first mid-level
trough moves east, another deepening mid-level trough develops
over the Rockies and High Plains as a shortwave from the
northwestern United States digs into the mean trough, and this
will continue to provide lift for shower development through
Tuesday and Tuesday night until it moves east of the area. Again,
it looks like the showers and thunderstorms will primarily affect
the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area with the western third
or so with little chance of precipitation.

Christmas day will be mild and as the area will be under some
ridging aloft between the exiting system and the next deepening
over the Intermountain West and the Colorado Plateau. This system
is forecast by most models to become a closed low over New Mexico
or southern Colorado as it approaches the Plains Wednesday
night/early Thursday. There has been differences on the projected
path of this system with the operational 00Z GFS bringing it
across northwest Oklahoma into Kansas, and the operational 00Z
ECMWF bringing it across north Texas. So it`s too early to get
into specifics, but precipitation chances increase with the
approach of this system regardless. As mentioned yesterday, there
is not a lot of cold air available to be a winter weather event,
although we will still want to watch for the potential of dynamic
cooling of the atmospheric column underneath the mid-level low,
although the current low-level thermo profile would suggest this
potential is low. On the other hand, we also look to have mid-
upper 50s dewpoints in the area ahead of this system, so we will
also be watching for thunderstorm potential in the warm sector.
But there is sufficient uncertainty on the projected path of
storm system that it is too early to get too specific.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals through the period. A
south/southeasterly breeze and a few passing high clouds can be
expected. Lowered (MVFR) cigs may arrive by mid-morning Sunday,
though uncertainty in coverage currently exists.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  33  58  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         54  32  62  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  36  65  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           52  30  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  29  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         51  33  56  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion