Weather Forecast Discussion

845
FXUS64 KOUN 041830
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected for
  the week ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A slow-moving/weak upper trough and moist boundary layer have
been a "thorn in the side" of our forecast the past 12-18 hours,
with areas of rain persisting significantly longer than expected
dating back to yesterday evening. However, as a 1028 mb surface
high continues to push further south across the central Plains -
ushering in a drier airmass - widely scattered light rain showers
continue to become less numerous and confined south of the Red
River in Texas.

Pockets of low clouds/stratus also continue to erode/progress
southward across the Red River Valley, with a greater mix of sun and
clouds expected across the forecast area into the evening. Sensible
conditions are otherwise rather pleasant for an early October day,
with temperatures in the upper-70s to low-80s along with an
occasionally gusty northeasterly surface wind.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

After a few day period of more active/wet weather across the region,
we look to shift back towards a more solidly dry and warmer weather
pattern as a new work week begins. Our area looks to be positioned
on the downstream periphery of an elongated upper ridge, with
generally weak northwesterly mid-tropospheric flow.

It will feel more classically fall-like as you head out the door
on Monday morning, with the coolest conditions (50s) since late
May forecast for most locations. It`s not out of the question that
a few low-lying or sheltered locations across northern Oklahoma
drop into the upper-40s around daybreak.

The combination of mostly clear skies, lower humidity and advection
of warmer low-level airmasses will lead to rising temperatures early
in the week. This includes the return of widespread 80s to possibly
low-90s across western-north Texas by Tuesday. There is high
confidence in dry weather/nil chances for precipitation, with
closest areas of precipitative weather confined to the Gulf
Coast.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue
for the week ahead. The temperature spread in bias-corrected
probabilistic guidance is low, which indicates high confidence of
no appreciable cool down next week. High temperatures will
generally be in the 80s deg F with some locations potentially
around 90 deg F (most likely across southwest Oklahoma into
western north Texas).

An upper-level low is forecast to pass by across Texas late
Friday into Saturday; however, the current forecast track would
keep any chance for rain to our southeast. Therefore, the forecast
remains dry for now.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

MVFR/VFR ceilings this afternoon with clouds expected to gradually
decrease later this afternoon/evening. Winds will be generally
from the N and NE gradually shifting towards the E and SE by
Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         57  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  59  85  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           53  81  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     53  77  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         59  81  55  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion