Weather Forecast Discussion

192
FXUS64 KOUN 091046
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
546 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

 - Low chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

 - Dry with very warm temperatures this week before rain chances
   return again towards the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

Ridging in the west will continue to build and push the cut-off low
over the Arklatex region towards the Gulf Coast. Daytime heating
will bring highs in the 70s with a nice northeast breeze of 10 to 15
mph, along with increasing cumulus cloud development into the
afternoon. Scattered showers and storms may develop this afternoon
with MLCAPE values below 1500 J/kg. The main hazard would be
lightning as weak northwesterly flow aloft will keep shear values
low and unsupportive for severe weather. Mild and near-normal low
temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s tonight with clearing skies and
light north winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

As the ridge moves east with the northern stream flow, the cut-off
low will become nearly stationary spinning over the Louisiana Coast.
Moisture will become a problem over Oklahoma with decreasing chances
for any additional rain chances. Weak subsidence, mostly sunny skies
and light winds will give way to continued near normal highs in the
70s through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

By Monday, the cut-off low will start to be absorbed into the ridge
in the northern stream as another trough digs into the western
CONUS. Weak ridging aloft through mid-week ahead of the next wave,
which may bring a return to rain chances towards the end of the
week. Lee troughing will develop Tuesday and strengthen into
Wednesday with a return to southerly surface flow. Warm air
advection will give way to above normal surface temperatures rising
into the 80s and 90s by mid-week. Very warm temperatures aloft will
inhibit storm chances through much of the week. Timing, strength
and track of the next trough axis will play a key role in the
chances for storms to return to the forecast area towards the end of
the week and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Weak
northerly winds will strengthen this morning, reaching 10-15 kts
by 18Z at all sites. Scattered low to mid-level clouds are
possible today, but should stay within the VFR range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  51  74  49 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         76  50  76  47 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  53  75  49 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           77  48  79  45 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     77  48  77  49 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         76  56  76  53 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...13

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion