Weather Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KOUN 261712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

Patchy fog is possible this morning across southeast Oklahoma
where dewpoint depressions are near or at zero with light to calm
winds. The spatial extent of any patchy fog should be more limited
than yesterday morning given the drier air elsewhere (and higher
dewpoint depressions).

Otherwise, no significant sensible weather changes are expected
today as the Southern Plains remains under the influence of a
mid/upper-level ridge axis across the southwest U.S. The eastern
periphery of the attendant low-level thermal ridge will impinge on
Southern Plains, resulting in very warm temperatures once again
(upper 80s to mid 90s deg F) with abundant sunshine. The only
noteworthy change is the winds will return to the south by this
afternoon with the surface ridge centered across Arkansas.



(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

Very warm and dry weather will continue for the last week of
September as the mid-level ridge across the southwest U.S. expands
toward the Midwest through the end of the week. This highly-
amplified ridge will prevent a trough digging into the western
U.S. to make much eastward progress this weekend (i.e.,
essentially a synoptic-scale blocking pattern).

Therefore, probabilistic guidance indicates high confidence that
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s deg F
through the upcoming weekend with little difference between the
25th and 75th percentiles. These temperatures are ~10 deg F above
average for late September.

There is only a very low (

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion