Weather Forecast Discussion

967
FXUS64 KOUN 251148
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
648 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 205 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Severe thunderstorms possible today with a risk for very large
  hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (potentially strong).

- Briefly drier Monday into Tuesday before additional storm
  chances return next week.

- Fire weather possible behind the dryline this weekend, mainly
  across far western/northwestern Oklahoma.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Severe thunderstorms will be possible once again today as a warm
front and dryline provide potential initiation sources for
convection amid a highly unstable and sheared environment.
Currently much of our area is observing light east-southeast to
east flow in the wake of outflow and a dying cold front that
passed through yesterday. Surface pressure falls to our west in
response to increased westerly mid-level flow over the Rockies
will encourage increasing moisture advection through the day as
winds strengthen from the south and southeast. Models are in good
agreement on the warm front lifting north into the area this
afternoon, stretching from central OK southeastward into
southeast OK, with a diffuse dryline expected to be oriented
north-south west of I-35.

Synoptic scale forcing aloft will be rather nebulous today, as our
area remains under fairly zonal flow aloft ahead of a robust
shortwave well to the west along the California coast. That said,
there does still appear to be a signal in the models for a subtle
mid-level wave that is forecast to cross the area during peak
heating this afternoon which may provide a bit of a boost for
thunderstorm development. CAMs have been more enthusiastic about
development along and north of the warm front as opposed to along
the dryline, but with capping forecast to erode along both
boundaries cannot rule out development along either zone. The
environment this afternoon will be characterized by strong
instability as upper 60 to low 70 degree dewpoints advect
northward with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/Kg centered along the I-35
corridor. Low-level shear will be enhanced along and north of the
warm front with strongly backed flow noted on most models. Storm
mode is likely to be discrete supercells initially which may merge
into several clusters by mid evening. Additional thunderstorm
development is possible into the overnight period as well as warm
advection increases with the low- level jet. Given the degree of
instability, storms will pose a risk for very large hail (perhaps
larger than baseballs) and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, a
corridor of locally enhanced tornado threat, including a risk for
a strong tornado or two, is plausible along and north of the warm
front where low-level shear will be maximized.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Showers and storms may linger into early Sunday morning across
southeast portions of the area, but much of the day on Sunday is
forecast to be dry in the wake of earlier convection. Additional
thunderstorm development is still highly uncertain and most model
guidance shows little if any convection Sunday afternoon. The wave
timing still appears to be too slow and/or directed to far to our
northwest during peak heating Sunday afternoon to provide much in
the way of synoptic lift. Additionally, forecast soundings along and
ahead of the dryline reveal fairly stout capping that may be
difficult to overcome without this lift. If (a big if) storms are
able to develop, the environment would be supportive of all severe
hazards given strong instability and wind shear (especially during
the evening), but overall chances for storms remain limited (

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion