Weather Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KOUN 220458
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1058 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

Oklahoma City, Wichita Falls, and Lawton all experienced their
coldest morning of the season with low temperatures of 10, 11, and
7 deg F, respectively. Abundant insolation and a return to
southerly winds have allowed temperatures to warm to above
freezing this afternoon.

Light and variable winds are expected tonight as a surface ridge
retrogrades to the southwest. The light winds and a dry air mass
will allow for another cold night with lows in the teens. The
higher temperatures this afternoon and more high clouds tonight
should result in higher low temperatures tonight than last night.

A subtle wind shift/trough axis tomorrow will result in winds
shifting to the north across northwest Oklahoma with westerly
winds elsewhere. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue with
highs in the 40s to near 50 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

Summary:

Warmup continues through Monday, followed by another wave of cold
air arriving Monday night. Chance of rain across southern Oklahoma
on Monday. Low chance for light snow in western Oklahoma around mid
week.

Meteorological Analysis:

Minor ridging over the area and mostly sunny skies will allow for
temperatures to rise into the mid 50s to lower 60s Sunday and Monday.

Models depict a cut-off low swinging through central Texas on
Monday, bringing rain chances to southern Oklahoma / north Texas.
Latest ensemble guidance raises rain chances a bit, though there is
still some lingering uncertainty in the path of this low. Any
rainfall we do get will likely be light as we sit on the periphery
of the main rainfall shield.

As this system moves through, an associated cold front will enter
the forecast area late on Monday, setting us up for highs generally
in the 30s and 40s Tuesday and Wednesday (though it should be
mentioned, significant ensemble spread still exists for temperatures
both days).

Another wave is forecast to come through late Tuesday / Wednesday,
bringing some very low chances for snow flurries in northwest
Oklahoma. Lack of moisture will be a limiting factor.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

High clouds will spread across northern Oklahoma, but low levels
remain dry and VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light
and somewhat variable, although mostly from the southeast
overnight and southwest on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  18  48  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         16  49  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  19  51  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           15  50  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     16  48  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         19  49  28  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion