Weather Forecast Discussion

584
FXUS64 KOUN 091754
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

 - Isolated strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon.

 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday, with heat indices
near 105 degrees possible in some areas.

 - A weekend cold front will bring our next best chance for
widespread storms and a noticeable cooldown.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

While widespread activity is not anticipated, a few high-resolution
CAMs (notably the ARW and NAM 3km) are starting to suggest the
potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing
during the peak heating hours this afternoon. This activity could be
aided by any remnant outflow boundaries from Tuesday nights
convection. As far as location, moisture and some low level
convergence in western Oklahoma would make this the most likely area
to see storms.

For Wednesday night, most guidance shows diminishing convective
potential after sunset. However, the NAM 3km remains an outlier,
depicting another potential MCS diving south into the area
overnight. Confidence in this scenario is low, but not zero, and
will need to be monitored. For now, have maintained low-end PoPs
overnight, mainly across northern Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

The main story for the short term will be the building heat and
humidity. An upper-level ridge will strengthen over the region,
leading to widespread hot temperatures on Thursday. Highs are
expected to climb into the mid-to-upper 90s for most, with some
locations across western Oklahoma potentially reaching 100 degrees.
When combined with ample low-level moisture, this will result in
heat index values pushing 100 degrees across the board, with
readings near 105 degrees in southeast Oklahoma and parts of north-
central Oklahoma.

Models are starting to show better agreement about the potential for
an MCS diving toward northwest Oklahoma Thursday night, supported by
a strengthening low level jet. SPC has included us in a marginal
risk for this area.

Friday will remain hot and humid ahead of an approaching cold front.
Thunderstorm chances will increase late Friday into Friday night as
the front nears the area, though uncertainty remains on the exact
timing and coverage of storms.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A lingering cold front will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday, though models diverge on its exact
position. Abundant cloud cover and cooler air behind the front will
lead to noticeably cooler temperatures across the region Saturday.

Forecast confidence decreases early next week as the upper-level
pattern becomes weak and ill-defined, making it challenging to time
any specific disturbances. Will maintain slight chance PoPs for
Monday and Tuesday pending better model agreement in subsequent
forecast cycles. Temperatures are expected to remain at or just
below seasonal normals.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Low confidence forecast for thunderstorms today, at least for the
locations of them. Surface temperatures are already in the upper
80s and lower 90s, with the lowest dewpoints across the area in
the lower 60s. There is a surface trough located over the Texas
panhandle, and this is where there is currently a cumulus field
which attempted to fire a few towers, leaving only disorganized
cirrus for now. In central Oklahoma, there is a weakness in the
mean sea level pressure field, which coincides with the deepest
moisture (and mid 70s dewpoints)...and this is where we will see
some cumulus developing over the next few hours.

As mentioned, the thunderstorm chances are low, but confidence
remains too low to include in the TAF sites, especially through
00Z tonight. Light winds and VFR ceilings will increase over the
next few hours, before dissipating once again after sunset.

Fox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  96  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         72 101  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  73  99  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           70 100  72  95 /  10   0  20  10
Ponca City OK     71  95  75  93 /  10   0   0  10
Durant OK         74  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...21

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion