Weather Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KOUN 211148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
648 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Widespread light showers have developed across Oklahoma and portions
of far western north Texas. The precipitation is primarily due to
widespread isentropic ascent across the region supported by a
passing upper level shortwave trough enhancing lift as well as
continued warm air and moisture advection at the surface. There
continues to be a very slight chance of a couple rumbles of thunder
with these showers, in particular in northern Oklahoma where there`s
very slight amount of instability (MUCAPE ~ 100 J/kg). This
precipitation will gradually shift eastward out of the region
through Tuesday morning, with clearing skies through the afternoon
and into the evening.

Temperatures will continue to trend warmer, with highs in the upper
60s and 70s on Tuesday. A surface low pressure cyclone that
developed with the passing upper level shortwave will continue to
tighten the surface pressure gradient through the region, resulting
in a breezy Tuesday and Wednesday as the surface cyclone shifts
eastward. Overnight lows will stay in the 50s and low 60s Tuesday
night into Wednesday, and highs on Wednesday will increase even
further, with upper 70s and widespread 80s across Oklahoma and
western north Texas.



(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

The main story in the long term continues to be the severe weather
potential Thursday afternoon and evening. A southwesterly upper air
pattern will continue Wednesday night into Thursday as the large
scale upper level trough continues to shift southeast, further
promoting the warm air and moisture advection at the surface to
continue. In Western Oklahoma, a dryline will mix eastward due to a
more westerly advection component and dry air advection, which will
result in higher potential for fire weather conditions, and a
decreased potential for showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

Support for widespread ascent in the upper levels will begin
arriving Thursday morning, with scattered and isolated showers and
storms possible throughout the region. More widespread showers and
storms are expected to develop along with the front`s arrival
Thursday afternoon and evening, as it gradually moves northwest to
southeast across the region. While the modest instability and shear
will provide a chance for severe weather, recent model trends have
indicated a more messy convective regime due to the broader, less
amplified upper level trough and a slow moving frontal boundary.
With this messy convective scheme and slower moving trough, QPF
amounts have been increased, with areas in southeastern Oklahoma
possibly receiving over an inch. Precipitation is expected to exit
the region to the east Friday morning.

Temperatures following the front are expected to return to near
seasonable averages through the weekend. Slight chances of rain are
possible through early next week, with numerous minor upper level
shortwaves moving through the region.



(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Showers across Oklahoma and western north Texas will continue
through Tuesday morning, as it exits the region to the east by
Tuesday afternoon. MVFR ceilings will linger across portions of
central and northern Oklahoma through Tuesday morning. Ceilings
will improve to VFR by Tuesday afternoon and through Wednesday
morning. Breezy southerly winds will continue through Tuesday
evening, before decreasing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.


Oklahoma City OK  71  59  79  60 /  20   0   0  10
Hobart OK         76  54  83  56 /  10   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  78  60  83  64 /  20   0   0  10
Gage OK           76  51  83  47 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  54  80  57 /  70  10   0  20
Durant OK         68  62  79  64 /  40  10   0   0





NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion