Weather Forecast Discussion

826
FXUS64 KOUN 021112
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
612 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 556 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

 - Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening.

 - Warmest day expected to be Wednesday with highs back in the 80s
   to mid 90s.

 - Cold fronts expected to move through on today, Wednesday
   night, and Friday.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A weak cold front will continue to move across the area today. There
are a few showers currently moving across parts northwest and west
central OK. Low (15-25%) chances will continue through at least the
early morning hours across parts of northern, western, and central
OK. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will remain possible (10-
20% chance) during the day today but mainly confined to eastern
parts of the fa, generally along and east of I-35. Much of the fa is
expected to remain dry today into tonight.

With the front moving through, temperatures are expected to remain
below average. Highs are expected to climb into the 80s to around 90
across the fa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Rain chances are expected to end early this evening with most of the
night remaining dry. Lows are expected to fall into the mid 50s to
mid 60s.

South to southwest winds are expected to return to the area
Wednesday with a low level thermal ridge expanding into the area.
The southwesterly winds and thermal ridge will likely lead to the
warmest day of the week for many locations with highs in the 90s in
western parts of the area to the mid 80s in eastern parts of the fa.

Models show NW flow aloft continuing over the region with a
shortwave moving through the long wave trough over the eastern U.S.
This shortwave will cause another cold front to move across the area
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Shower/storm development
will be possible along the front Wednesday evening. Instability of
1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE and decent shear is expected to develop
Wednesday which means some strong to severe storms could be possible
Wednesday evening with damaging winds and hail possible. The
intensity and amount of showers/storms is expected to diminish late
Wednesday evening/overnight.

Right now, Thursday appears to be dry. The cooler and drier airmass
that moves into the area behind the front will result in cooler
temperatures during the day Thursday except for southwest parts of
the fa. Highs are expected to range from around 80 in north central
OK to the low/mid 90s in southwest OK and western north TX.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Another cold front is expected to move across the area Friday as a
stronger shortwave rotates across the northern Plains into the Great
Lakes region. Showers/storms will be possible with this front Friday
into Saturday. Models differ over the weekend into early next week
so a lot of uncertainty but it looks like rain chances could
continue across the area over the weekend into early next week.

With the front moving across the area Friday, a fairly decent
temperature gradient is forecast across the area with highs in the
mid 70s across northern OK and in the upper 80s/low 90s along the
Red River. Temperatures over the weekend into early next week will
once again be well below average with highs back into the 70s and
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Have included a period of fog across all sites this morning along
with some MVFR and possibly IFR conditions across the north before
north winds increase a bit later this morning. By mid/late
morning should see most sites rise back into VFR category with
some increase in north winds. Skies should clear after sunset this
evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  62  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
Hobart OK         86  61  93  63 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  87  64  89  66 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           81  58  92  57 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     80  60  87  58 /  10   0  10  30
Durant OK         85  65  88  65 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion