Weather Forecast Discussion

379
FXUS64 KOUN 201135
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
635 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

- Elevated to near-critical fire conditions expected each
  afternoon through at least early next week, especially across
  western Oklahoma and western- north Texas.

- Generally dry forecast outside of low chance (20-30%) for rain
  across central and eastern Oklahoma Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

A shortwave ridge will build over the central U.S. today,
bringing a mainly clear sky and relatively light winds. Surface
winds will be from the northwest early this morning, but will
gradually shift to the southwest during the afternoon. By mid to
late afternoon, the wind may gusts to around 20 to 25 mph across
far western Oklahoma. This coupled with low afternoon humidity
(15-20%) will elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours. A
Fire Danger Statement will be issued for parts of western
Oklahoma. The wind across parts of south central and southeast
Oklahoma will likely remain light for most of the daylight hours.

High clouds will increase from the west during the late afternoon
and early evening, as a shortwave trough approaches from the
northwest. A decent pressure gradient and strong low-level jet
(45-50 knots) will keep surface winds a little breezy tonight.
So despite a rather dry airmass, overnight lows will only drop
into the 40s most areas. This will also result in only fair to
good humidity recovery by early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

A weak cold front will enter northwestern Oklahoma Friday morning
and will bring a wind shift to central and southern
Oklahoma/northern Texas during the afternoon/early evening.
Afternoon humidity on Friday will generally be around 20 to 25
percent, but fortunately surface wind speeds will be in the 10-20
mph range.  Similar to Thursday, elevated fire weather conditions are
expected for several hours, but will cover most of the area. The
front is expected to stall across central Texas Friday night with
a mainly light wind across Oklahoma and northern Texas.

Surface low pressure will develop over the Panhandles Saturday
afternoon, as another shortwave trough approaches within west to
northwest flow aloft.  This will result in a quick return of
southerly winds which will increase during the day.  A veered low-
level flow will advect very warm temperatures across a large part
of Oklahoma and northern Texas by early evening (15-22 C at 850 mb).
At surface, modest moisture return into the eastern two-thirds of
Oklahoma will keep afternoon humidity higher than the previous
two days. However, far western Oklahoma and adjacent areas of
northern Texas may become very warm and dry by late afternoon.
This will result in at least elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions. Saturday night, elevated thunderstorms will
likely form along and north of a warm front, but most of this
activity should be northeast of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

A cold front will sweep across the northern half of Oklahoma late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning.  This front is expected to
push well into southern Texas before stalling.  The front will cool
temperatures into the 60s and lower 70s for highs Sunday with
rather cool readings by early Monday morning. A southerly wind
will return Monday with much warmer temperatures Tuesday into
Wednesday. Unfortunately, dry conditions are expected to prevail
through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a change in
wind direction through the day as winds become southerly by late
in the afternoon. Expect some low level wind shear later tonight,
especially across northern Oklahoma. Skies will be mainly clear
through the day, with some high level cirrus moving in from the
northwest tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  46  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         64  43  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  65  44  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           65  42  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     60  45  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         63  42  72  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...08

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion