Weather Forecast Discussion

686
FXUS64 KOUN 250658
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
158 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Conditional but potentially high-impact storm chances across
  northern Oklahoma this evening with severe/flooding possible.

- Hotter and drier into the weekend and the week beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The primary forecast concern in the near term is the potential for
both severe weather and flash flooding primarily across northern
Oklahoma this evening. Although significant uncertainty exists, the
conditional ceiling for severe/flood risk is higher than we have
seen in several weeks.

Starting at the beginning: a complex of thunderstorms is currently
trundling eastward across the Llano Estacado as of early this
morning. Guidance suggests that this complex will weaken as it comes
off of the Caprock. At first glance, it is a little hard to
understand why that would happen. The storms are moving through a
well of 2,000-3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE and the LLJ is expected to ramp
up over the second half of the night, but outflow has recently begun
to accelerate, which could spell the death knell of those storms.
Either way, the presence and veering of the LLJ should lead to at
least sporadic convective development late tonight across
western/northern Oklahoma within a warm advection regime.

After that, attention turns to later in the day. Pressure falls
across southeast Colorado will work to veer winds from easterly to
southeasterly and surge a theta-E tongue toward the Oklahoma/Kansas
border. It remains to be seen how much convection exists during the
day to stanch the forward progress of the theta-E tongue, but it is
quite likely that there will be an east-west oriented warm
front/outflow boundary feature to act as a focus for convection
initiation.

The real key to the ceiling for the severe/flood risk this evening
will be the existence and nature of the LLJ. This has been a
difficult thing for mesoscale models to try and pinpoint so far,
with run-to-run consistency on the HRRR and NSSL WRF falling into a
bin that could best be described as "comical". However, a broad-
brush average of CAM/global guidance would suggest that a reasonably
backed 850 mb low-level jet will develop by early evening,
particularly near I-35. If convection initiation occurs in the
frontal zone/LLJ region overlap, discrete supercells would be
explicitly favored. Those supercells (were they to exist) would be
favored for large hail - though not giant hail, given PWATS in
excess of 2 inches, as well a conditional risk of significant
tornadoes. If convection initiation occurs west of the LLJ axis,
supercells or clusters would be favored with a damaging wind aspect
displacing the significant tornado threat.

It must also be said that regardless of convection evolution (and
even if no storms occur this evening, which is a possibility - this
would most likely open the window for an MCS to enter northern
Oklahoma from Kansas late tonight), there will be a risk of very
serious flash flooding. PWATS over 2 inches will lead to efficient
rainfall processes, particularly in any supercells, where 2-3 inch
per hour rates could be realized. Parts of northern Oklahoma have
seen very heavy over the last week, which will exacerbate flooding
issues.

Most of this near-term AFD has focused on northern Oklahoma due to
the increased impact potential in the forecast in the region.
However, from central Oklahoma southward, storms will also be in the
forecast - especially overnight as a complex of storms moves in from
the Texas panhandles. Further from the frontal boundary, shear
profiles may not favor such an organized severe/flood risk. But we
should not conflate "lesser" risk with "no" risk.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Fortunately, the short term forecast looks a little bit less
rambunctious than much of the previous week. In large part, this is
a product of the subtropical ridge deamplifying and sliding eastward
to our south. This will move us out of the northwest flow regime and
more into a "western ridge periphery" regime, which favors steady
warming and decreased precipitation chances. It wouldn`t be a
surprise to get a few showers or thunderstorms on Friday
afternoon/evening along any remnant boundaries, but coverage should
be sporadic and the environment muted enough to prevent widespread
severe/flooding issues.

On Saturday, we may even begin to see a southwesterly component to
the surface wind as a potent-for-late-June trough swings by to our
north. This will bring air temperatures soaring toward 100 in places
that didn`t see much rain recently, and heat indices soaring toward
105 elsewhere.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The main long-term story continues to be the potential for a
consistent and possibly long-duration heatwave across our area.
Global, ensemble, and AI-based guidance all indicate an
amplification of the ridge to our east beginning on Sunday and
lasting through (beyond) the end of the long-term period. Because of
that, precipitation chances are going to be slim to nil during that
timeframe. Not only will air temperatures and heat indices approach
Heat Advisory criteria most days, but overnight lows will be little
relief, sitting near 80 in most spots.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Continue to see mainly VFR conditions outside a brief period
around sunrise in the north when there will be a chance of some
thunderstorms moving through the area. This activity will mainly
impact sites along and north of I-40 late tonight through mid-
morning hours Thursday. Much of the day should be dry with a east
wind becoming southerly and increasing. Some gusts of 25-30kts
possible by afternoon. There will be another chance of convection
Thursday evening, again mainly impacting sites along and north of
I-40.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  74  92  78 /  30  50  10  10
Hobart OK         94  74  96  77 /  20  50  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  76  97  78 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           94  67  91  73 /  70  70   0  30
Ponca City OK     85  70  88  74 /  70  60  10  30
Durant OK         92  77  92  78 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ004>013-019-020-026.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion