Weather Forecast Discussion

966
FXUS64 KOUN 202317
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
617 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
  across parts of northwest and western Oklahoma today into this
  week.

- Low rain chances Monday night into Tuesday across southern OK
  and western north TX. Amounts likely light.

- Storm chances and potential for severe weather return by
  Thursday and Friday for at least portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are evident on regional
radars to our south associated with a slow moving mid-upper level
wave across TX and NM. Locally, breezy conditions and dry air are
leading to elevated fire conditions across northwest OK while high clouds
are expanding into southern and central OK. As the wave to our
southwest moves eastward overnight, expect shower coverage to
increase across western OK and western north TX, but amounts
appear rather light given overall weak nature to the forcing and
some initial dry air to overcome. In addition to increasing
shower chances, could also see some patchy fog by sunrise Tuesday
morning across western north TX into southern OK once the boundary
layer saturates and moisture advects in from the south. Extensive
cloud cover will keep temperatures from dropping too quickly
overnight, with lows expected to be in the low to mid 50s for most
areas.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms chances will continue into the
day on Tuesday as the mid level wave tracks by to our south. Amounts
again appear generally light but a few spots closer to the Red River
could see around a quarter of an inch of rain. Precipitation will
not likely make it much north of I-40 given dry air to the north.
Highs will be fairly cool across southern portions of the area given
extensive clouds and a rain-cooled airmass, with temperatures nearly
steady in the low to mid 60s through much of the day. Elsewhere,
highs will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees in northwest OK.

The wave will move by the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with
shower chances decreasing by Wednesday morning across southeast OK.
Low level moisture will advect northward through the day with a
dryline expected to sharpen to our west across the panhandles by
Wednesday afternoon. Isolated high-based convection may develop
along the dryline Wednesday afternoon and attempt to move into
our area, but is expected to weaken as it approaches by early
evening. Will have to watch for strong wind gusts with decaying
convection, but otherwise not much impact is expected at this
time. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid 80s west to low to
mid 70s east.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A dryline is expected to mix just east of the 100th meridian
Thursday, with severe weather possible to the east and near
critical fire weather concerns to the west of the boundary. A mid-
level trough will move across the Plains Thursday afternoon,
while a sub tropical jet will move across the Red River and
vicinity. Medium range guidance suggests that there may be low-
level inhibition across much of the area, which may limit surface
based storms. We are still several days out from the exact
details, however, instability and shear will be in place for
severe weather.

A cold front will move through late Thursday into Friday,
bringing afternoon highs through the weekend back into the 70s and
low 80s. Isolated elevated fire weather conditions are possible
through the weekend across western Oklahoma and western north
Texas. Perturbations within the zonal flow aloft will provide the
necessary lift for at least low chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the area through Sunday.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

MVFR ceilings (possibly IFR) are expected to develop from the
southwest overnight and expand eastward. Some light rain and/or
drizzle will also move into north Texas and south central
Oklahoma, potentially reducing visibilities. Winds will remain out
of the south through the TAF period.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  64  55  74 /  10  20   0  10
Hobart OK         52  68  55  81 /  20  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  66  57  81 /  40  30  10   0
Gage OK           51  80  54  84 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     52  72  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         53  64  56  75 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...14

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion