Weather Forecast Discussion

328
FXUS64 KOUN 041840
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
140 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon
  across the western third of Oklahoma and adjacent portions of
  western north Texas.

- Low shower and storm chances late Tuesday through Thursday,
  mostly across portions of northern Oklahoma.

- Hot temperatures continue through the week with triple digit
  heat and at least a moderate heat risk.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The surface low is spinning over southwest Kansas this morning with
the front draped across Kansas and down into the western OK/TX
Panhandles. Scattered showers and storms are developing along the
front and in the vicinity of the surface low. This activity is
pushing southeast with weak northwesterly flow aloft as the upper
ridge continues to spin over the Desert Southwest and is extending
eastward over Oklahoma with a shortwave translating eastward north
of the ridge across the Northern Rockies and Plains. There is a low
chance for virga and light rain showers to move into northwest
Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. With a very dry and well mixed
boundary layer, cloud bases will be at least above 1500 meters and
therefore the primary hazard would be gusty to strong winds/dry
downbursts.

South southwest surface winds will persist through most of the day
with some low end breezes of up to 20 to 25 mph. Temperatures
areawide are likely to breach triple digits today and thankfully
with dry air mixing will keep humidity values and the heat risk
lower. Temperatures are borderline Heat Advisory but no headline has
been issued given the fact that humidity is helping to lower the
heat risk and the pattern has been consistently promoting summertime
heat.

Elevated fire weather conditions have returned again today across
the western third of Oklahoma and portions of adjacent western north
Texas with the very hot temperatures, drier air and lack of
substantial rainfall in the last week or more. Fuels and soil
moistures continue to show drying with a concern for initial attack
fires. Thus, any storms that develop could produce cloud-to-ground
lightning and pose an additional risk for fire starts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The surface low will push southeastward across Oklahoma Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning and bring the front farther into
northwest and northern Oklahoma. The front is likely to stall
Wednesday morning somewhere across the northern half to one-third of
Oklahoma. Low chances for light rain showers and isolated storms
will continue Wednesday into Wednesday night along the frontal
boundary with the highest chances across north central Oklahoma and
into Kansas, closer to the stronger shortwave aloft. Once again any
showers and storms that develop could produce gusty winds and
lightning. Temperatures will once again be very hot in the triple
digits and with some moisture return, heat indices will rise to 100
to 110 degrees with the highest values across portions of central
into southeast Oklahoma where a Heat Advisory is in effect from noon
to 8 PM. There is some uncertainty in temperatures and heat indices
across north central Oklahoma and into central Oklahoma given the
potential for some cloud cover with any shower/storm activity along
the frontal boundary. Additionally, NBM continues to come in too
aggressive with moisture return, which is why areas along the Red
River into western north Texas were left out of the Heat Advisory
for now.

Thursday will feature another hot day, but may be a bit cooler
across portions of northern Oklahoma due to increased cloud cover
and low chances for showers and storms. The best moisture return
will be along the Red River and into western north Texas with the
greatest chances for needing a Heat Advisory, but there is some
uncertainty due to cloud cover and the fact that dry air mixing has
been a bit more aggressive than the model blends are forecasting.
Another shortwave along the Rockies will allow the ridge to retreat
a bit and open the door to a bit stronger northwesterly flow aloft.
Evening convection will push southeastward towards northern Oklahoma
with a chance for storms capable of gusty to strong winds during the
evening and overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Rain chances (20-40%) continue into Friday as the upper wave moves
through and the ridge is briefly shoved to the west. With the higher
chances of rain, uncertainty in max temperatures is higher for the
late week period, particularly across northern Oklahoma. As we move
into early next week, it does appear the ridge starts to shift back
east, bringing back a hot and dry pattern.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. A few
mid to high clouds are possible across northern OK, otherwise
expect mainly clear skies across the remainder of the area.
South-southeast winds will veer to more southwesterly Wednesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77 101  77 100 /  10  10   0  10
Hobart OK         76 103  76 102 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76 103  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           70 100  69  99 /  10  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     77  98  73  96 /  10  20  20  10
Durant OK         77 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ026-030>032-
     042-043-047-048.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion