Weather Forecast Discussion

119
FXUS64 KOUN 151716
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday. Some of the
  storms may become strong.

- Slightly below normal temperatures expected through the end of
  the week before triple digit heat returns over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

There is a very low chance for an isolated shower or two to develop
but most, if not all of the fa, is expected to remain dry overnight
into early Wednesday. With light winds and low temp/dewpoint spreads
expected, patchy fog development will be possible once again early
Wednesday morning with the best chance in parts of north TX and
southern OK although patchy fog could extend northward into parts of
central OK. If this fog develops, it is expected to dissipate by mid-
morning.

Models show a mid-lvl shortwave/disturbance moving east to west
across the area Wednesday bringing a chance for isolated to
scattered showers and storms to parts of the fa. The highest chances
will be in eastern portions of the fa, generally along and east of I-
35, mostly during the afternoon hours. With MLCAPE expected to be in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range, some of the storms could become strong
Wednesday afternoon with gusty winds and small hail. The showers and
storms are expected to decrease Wednesday evening with the loss of
heating.

The near to below average temperatures are expected to continue
Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Models show the upper high continuing to shift into the Mid-Atlantic
states Wednesday which will shift the upper flow to more southerly
for the end of the work week. Models show a couple of mid-lvl
disturbances moving south to north across the Southern Plains which
will bring rain chances to parts of the fa both Thursday and Friday.

With southerly flow returning to the area, temperatures may be a
degree or two warmer at the end of the week although cloud cover and
rain is expected to still keep them near or just below average for
mid July with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Models show the upper high building across the western U.S. possibly
into the Southern Plains over the weekend into early next week with
NW flow possibly setting up over the Northern/Central Plains next
week. At the sfc, south to southwesterly winds are expected over the
weekend. Models are now showing the potential for a frontal boundary
to move into at least parts of the fa early to middle of next week.

With the upper ridge potentially influencing the area and south to
southwesterly flow at the sfc, temperatures are expected to warm
over the weekend into early next week with a return to above normal
temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 90s and low 100s. However,
temperatures may be knocked down a few degrees next week if the
previously mentioned frontal boundary moves into the area.

A drier forecast is also expected over the weekend into early next
week with the upper ridge providing less of an opportunity for storm
development. One chance for some more rain may also be with the
frontal boundary next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions across pretty much the whole CWA despite cloud
bases in the 3,000-4,000 foot range. Those will slowly rise this
afternoon, except for areas where showers and thunderstorms
develop. Skies will clear tonight before another round of cumulus
develops by mid-morning tomorrow. Winds remain rather light.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  90  71  91 /  20  10  10  20
Hobart OK         68  90  69  90 /  20  10  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  69  91  70  92 /  10  30  20  30
Gage OK           67  92  68  92 /  10   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     71  90  73  92 /  10  10   0  10
Durant OK         72  90  73  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...04

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion