Weather Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KOUN 301127
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
627 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

As northern Rockies upper low progresses southward, increasing flow
across central Rockies will result in lee trough intensification
this morning and afternoon. This will tighten the lower level
pressure gradient and result in moderate south winds across western
Oklahoma. While all locations will have temperatures at least a few
degrees above average and low afternoon humidities, northwest
Oklahoma will have the added ingredient of stronger winds. This is
where elevated fire weather conditions will exist.

Outside of the fire weather concerns, we will likely see some
sprinkles persist into the post-sunrise hours across portions of
north central Oklahoma in region of modest, elevated warm advection.
Enough subcloud dry air should keep any precipitation brief and very
light.

Winds should quickly subside after sunset, and with dry air in
place, temperatures are planned to cool quickly like we have seen
the past several days. Lows tonight will again range from mid/upper
50s across western Oklahoma and northern Texas to a few upper 40s
east of I-35.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

All models indicate the mentioned upper low will open up and get
kicked eastward by Tuesday as high amplitude trough approaches from
western Canada. While there are some differences among models on
whether the entire trough progresses eastward over the Plains (ECM
is outlier in keeping southern end of trough over the southern
Rockies) sensible differences will be minimal for Oklahoma and
western north Texas. The surface reflection of the upper trough
passage to our north will be introduction of a weak frontal boundary
Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Only minor decrease in
temperatures expected with this front.

As higher amplitude Canadian trough progresses eastward across the
northern portions of the country on Wednesday, stronger cold front
is forecast to move over the region on Thursday. Main impacts with
this front will be the potential for gusty northerly winds Thursday
into Friday. Post frontal temperatures are expected to be taken
below average to end the week, with most locations in the 70s for
highs and lows in the 40s and 50s.

It still appears that chances for rain will be quite low this
weekend through next week, with about the only chances for rain
being scattered showers near the Tuesday night frontal boundary
across northern Oklahoma. We will continue a dry forecast for now
until better model agreement is seen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Scattered, light showers that have persisted over north-central
Oklahoma the past few hours are expected to diminish within the
next few hours. Confidence is low that these showers will affect
TAF sites, and therefore, have left out of TAFs. Otherwise, expect
breezy S/SE winds today with gusts to 30 mph possible for KWWR.
Winds will subside quickly after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         85  55  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  86  54  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           87  58  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     82  52  84  49 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         82  50  84  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...01

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion