Weather Forecast Discussion

248
FXUS64 KOUN 050400
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1056 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Scattered storms this afternoon with a few becoming strong to
  locally severe. Main hazards will include large hail and
  damaging wind gusts.

- Increasing rain and storm chances Friday and into the weekend.
  A few storms could become strong to severe.

- Near to above normal temperatures heading into next week with a
  potential for triple digit heat.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A MCV is spinning across central Kansas and will continue to lift
northeast with storms associated with the circulation keeping
north of the forecast area. Cumulus clouds across norther into
western Oklahoma and western north Texas have developed late this
morning with a few isolated to scattered storms developing. Storms
are developing on the eastern side of a weak surface trough
draped north to south across West Texas. Bulk shear is expected to
be less than 20 knots with short-lived updrafts. Sufficient
MLCAPE will support a few strong to locally severe storms with
hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Area of greatest
potential for storms will be across southwest Oklahoma and into
north central Oklahoma through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

In the wake of the shortwave that moved through the Central Plains
Thursday, an upper closed low will develop pin northwest Mexico
Friday. This will help feed subtropical moisture into the Southern
Plains, but overall the forcing aloft will remain weak over
Oklahoma. Thus, any storms that develop will rely on diurnal heating
Friday afternoon as a weak trough sets up closer to the NM/TX state
line. If a storm or two can develop, hail and winds will remain the
primary hazards.

The upper low will shift northward into the Permian Basin Friday
night and then West Texas by Saturday. Rain and storm chances will
increase from south to north into Saturday as the upper low brings
lift and moisture into the forecast area. Strong to locally severe
storms cannot be ruled out, especially Saturday as the upper low is
over the Texas Panhandle and flow aloft increases. Several rounds of
rain and storms Friday into Saturday could give way to localized
flooding in some areas as heavy rainfall is likely to accompany any
storms that develop.

Temperatures will be near or above normal Friday before cooling
slightly towards normal or slightly below Saturday with increased
cloud cover and rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Storm chances will likely continue Saturday night into much of the
day on Sunday as the upper low lifts into OK, though we will likely
see a gradual transition of rain chances eastward over time as the
trough axis translates to our east by Monday. Uncertainty increases
for the middle of next week as models which had previously shown
continued storm chances associated with another trough over the
western/central US are now showing this trough remaining further north
and west with ridging building over the southern Plains instead.
If this were to occur, decreasing precipitation chances and hotter
temperatures would be expected for the middle to latter portion
of next week.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Latest observations indicate IFR ceilings have already developed
south of the Red River. MVFR conditions are expected to develop
at KDUA within the next few hours and potentially deteriorate to
IFR towards dawn. MVFR conditions are forecast to spread towards
parts of central and northern Oklahoma as well this morning.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return tomorrow morning near KDUA
and to the rest of the area by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  20
Hobart OK         91  69  92  68 /  20  10  10  40
Wichita Falls TX  91  69  90  68 /  10  10  30  50
Gage OK           89  70  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     87  71  90  72 /  30  10   0   0
Durant OK         86  72  85  72 /  30  10  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion