Weather Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KOUN 160354
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

As a weak mid-level ridge approaches from the west, a broad
surface high pressure system exits the Rockies. Gusty north winds
diminish around sunset and light winds back westerly by early
Saturday morning as the center of the high develops over west
Texas. Dewpoint temperatures decrease across western Oklahoma
tonight with the advancement of the cooler/drier airmass. While
clear skies, light winds, and lows in the mid-30s will promote
perhaps some patchy frost growth over parts of northwest Oklahoma
Saturday morning, the low dewpoints and westerly downslope flow
should prevent significant frost coverage.

Tomorrow, enjoy the abundant sunshine and mild temperatures - a
well-deserved break from the recent stormy pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Temperatures will be slightly warmer Saturday night as the surface
high settles to our south and winds become light from the southwest.
This trend will continue into Sunday as upper ridging builds in and
highs will climb about 5 degrees over Saturday`s values (low to mid
70s).

The warming trend should continue into early next week as ridging
slowly moves off to our east and a trough approaches from the west
by next Tuesday. Moisture return ahead of this trough is currently
looking more limited than we saw this past week, which will limit
our precipitation chances as a cold front crosses the area on
Wednesday. Models do show some signal for showers and thunderstorms
across our south and eastern counties where moisture will be a bit
better Wednesday afternoon and overnight and low PoPs were
maintained this forecast package. A slightly slower frontal
progression or faster moisture return (within the realm of
possibilities at this range) would allow for a broader portion of
our area to see a chance for rain with this system. The temperature
decrease will not be that significant behind the front, with highs
dropping back down near average for the end of the week.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

VFR conditions continue.

Light northwest winds and clear skies will continue tonight and
through the day Saturday. Winds will shift back to the south
around 00Z tomorrow evening.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

No Upper Air flights are planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  42  68  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         39  71  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  42  71  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           36  70  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     38  68  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         45  71  44  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion