Weather Forecast Discussion


000
FXUS64 KOUN 211712
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

The mild air mass will be over Oklahoma today with light winds
continuing. Mid and high level clouds will arrive on westerly
flow aloft. Clouds overnight will keep temperatures higher while
south winds begin over western OK on the western edge of the
surface high.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

As the cool-for-April airmass drifts off to the east on Thursday,
southerly winds will begin the return of warmer and more humid
air into north Texas and Oklahoma. Some light rain or drizzle will
likely accompany the returning moisture Thursday night or Friday
early Friday morning.

On Friday, with moisture in place, an approaching shortwave trough
aloft and surface low will provide a setup for rain, which may be
rather heavy in parts of eastern Oklahoma, and thunderstorms.
There will be two main opportunities for thunderstorm
development. The first will be with daytime heating and the
approaching storm system. A capping inversion will probably limit
the ability of storms to form in this environment, but if storms
are able to find a hole in the "cap," they would develop quickly
and severe storms would be likely. The second opportunity will be
with the cold front as it advances southeast across the region in
the late evening.

Warm and dry (mainly in the sense of "no rain") weather will fill
in between the Friday events and those of Tuesday of next week.
The ECMWF has been consistently portraying a rather dangerous
situation, while the GFS has been less disturbing in its outlook.
However, the two seem to be converging more into the ECMWF
scenario, so we will need to keep a close eye on Tuesday`s storm
potential, as details gradually become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

VFR conditions this TAF period with some mid and high clouds.
Winds will gradually shift towards the SE by Thursday morning. A
few rain showers may develop and move across parts of the area
tomorrow morning but chances too low for mention in TAF at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  41  57  50 /   0   0  30  10
Hobart OK         59  41  57  50 /   0   0  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  61  42  61  54 /   0   0  20  10
Gage OK           57  37  57  44 /   0  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     58  37  56  47 /   0   0  40  30
Durant OK         62  44  64  54 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...25

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion