Weather Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KOUN 250956
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
456 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 451 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Radar showing showers/storms across Kansas now developing across
northern Oklahoma, but are very isolated. Updated the POP &
weather grids for isolated thunderstorms this through 9 am across
our north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Hot south winds under an upper ridge will maintain a final afternoon
of triple digit high temperatures before some relief from the
heatwave comes in the form of a fairly strong summertime cold front
passage, which will really be felt on Sunday at the start of the
long term of the forecast.  Did go slightly cooler than NBM using
the CONSShort for this afternoons MaxT, with 100-105 degrees in all
areas ahead of the cold front, which is expected to start pushing
into far northwest Oklahoma by early afternoon.  Did have to
increase the wind speeds behind the front using the NBM 90th
percentile in the wind grids.  Our strongest surface moisture of 70-
75 degree dewpoints is already in place across eastern and
eastcentral Oklahoma.  Both NAM & GFS models transport that thick
moisture into the Central Plains of eastern Kansas & Missouri, with
the leading edge of the frontal boundary pushing and returning the
moisture back through the eastern half of Oklahoma.  As a result,
heat indices up to 105 degrees will be expected ahead of the front
this afternoon across northcentral and portions of central and
southeast Oklahoma, where a Heat Advisory will remain in place until
early evening when the front is expected to come through there.
Across our southwest in a drought, fire weather conditions will be
elevated this afternoon with very dry air coming up across western
Texas.

Could start seeing some convection along the frontal boundary by
late afternoon, as the latest CAMs showing storms firing up along
the boundary from the Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma.  The
main upper support for this large system will be a trough digging
across the Northern & Central Plains, although a flattening mid-
level ridge across the southern U.S. producing a shortwave could
provide some upper support as well across the Southern Plains.
Models are not in very good agreement with the amount of instability
and shear available for the convection to develop in, with the NAM
being the most aggressive.  Even with the weaker model solutions,
moderate surface based instability could be sufficient for a few
strong to marginally severe storms producing up to quarter size hail
to develop along the frontal boundary across western and northern
Oklahoma.  DCAPE values may also be sufficient for locally damaging
downburst winds, while a tongue of high PW values could produce some
locally heavy rainfall across northern Oklahoma.  The timing for any
severe storms would be late this afternoon through the early evening
hours.  Could see some post-frontal elevated convection, so will
keep POPs in through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Much cooler air will spread into the area behind the cold front
overnight as a 1030 mb high settles down the Plains. There is a
signal in most of the models showing a vort max moving through
Kansas on Sunday with some shower/storm potential in northern
Oklahoma on Sunday with this. Another vort max approached on
Monday, although mid-level moisture is not as available so
although there is some potential for convection again, the chances
are relatively low.

The cool weather (10 degrees or so below average for highs) will
remain in the forecast Monday as the surface high remains camped
out over the Plains before finally moving east Tuesday.
Temperatures will begin to warm as southerly flow returns and the
cool airmass shifts east, although it will not initially be quite
as hot as we have been experiencing lately. However we could
start seeing some triple digits in the post-harvest wheat belt of
north central/northwest Oklahoma as soon as Thursday, and in the
southwest as soon as Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday evening. Winds will
remain southerly throughout most of Oklahoma and western north
Texas, with gusty winds expected Sunday afternoon. Low level wind
shear will again occur overnight Saturday night through Sunday
morning across the region. A cold front begins to move into
northwestern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and into the evening,
bringing a shift to northerly surface winds as well as a chance
for thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 101  72  80  63 /   0  20  10  10
Hobart OK        103  71  83  61 /  10  20  10  20
Wichita Falls TX 104  74  93  65 /   0  10  10  20
Gage OK           97  63  75  57 /  40  60  30  10
Ponca City OK    101  67  77  61 /  10  60  30  10
Durant OK        102  73  95  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020-024>026-032-043-048-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...03

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion