Weather Forecast
Discussion
906
FXUS64 KOUN 081135
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
535 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
- Areas of fog with the potential for locally dense fog are
expected this morning, especially across north central into
central Oklahoma.
- Patchy frost is likely across north central into central
Oklahoma this morning.
- Warm, above-normal temperatures return early to mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
A ~1024 mb surface high remains the primary influence on the
weather across Oklahoma and north Texas once again this morning.
With the weak surface pressure gradient, light and variable winds
are creating ideal conditions for radiational cooling. This is
leading to large temperature variations over short distances with
temperatures in the 30s and 40s deg F. Patchy frost is likely
across north central, central, and east central Oklahoma, where
the lowest temperatures are forecast (mid 30s deg F). A Frost
Advisory remains in effect for this area.
The light and variable winds, combined with a nearly saturated
boundary layer, may also lead to the development of fog this
morning. The most likely area to see fog is central, north
central, and east central Oklahoma (where relative humidity is the
highest/closest to saturation). Any fog should dissipate by
around mid morning.
For this afternoon, the coverage of high clouds will be less than
yesterday and more confined across southern Oklahoma and north
Texas with overall more solar insolation/sunshine. This will
result in a warmer afternoon with high temperatures ranging from
the upper 60s to the low 70s deg F.
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
With light winds, patchy fog is possible once again Sunday night
into Monday morning. Monday afternoon will be slightly warmer
weather as southerly winds increase across Oklahoma and north
Texas. The warmer weather will especially be noticeable Monday
night into Tuesday morning, with low temperatures in the upper 40s
and 50s deg F as southerly winds advect higher dew
points/moisture northward.
An upper-level low will eventually lift into the Southern Plains
late Monday into Tuesday. Moisture is limited, so the chance for
rain is ~10% or lower across western north Texas into southern
Oklahoma. Otherwise, the warming trend continues Tuesday afternoon
with highs in the 70s to near 80 deg F.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
The synoptic-scale pattern will change across the continental
United States as a longwave trough develops across the eastern
half of the country. This pattern will allow a cold front to
advance southward as the trough amplifies to the east. Currently,
the cold front is most likely to move through on Wednesday.
However, the cold air may lag behind the initial wind shift with
the coolest air arriving for Thursday and Friday. Rain chances
also look to be near zero/limited with the front with the more
appreciable synoptic-scale forcing remaining to the northeast.
How cold will the air mass be behind the front? The Southern
Plains will be to the southwest of the strongest cold air
advection, which means the chance of a significant cool-down (for
November) is very low. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance
indicates a ~20 deg F spread between the 10th and 90th
percentiles, with the cooler end of ensemble guidance only
lowering high temperatures into the 50s deg F (which is slightly
below normal for mid-November). Currently, The most likely
scenario is highs in the low 60s (northeast) to the low 70s deg F
(southwest).
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Patchy/areas of fog remain possible across northern and central
Oklahoma through ~14-15 UTC this morning. While likely limited in
time/space, IFR to LIFR vis may occur at KPNC and KSWO during
this time. Additional chances for fog/lowered vis are also
apparent towards the end of the period (early Monday morning).
Otherwise, a light-variable surface wind and mostly clear
skies/passing high clouds will be common during the valid period.
Safe travels!
Ungar
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 69 46 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 69 45 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 69 48 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 71 43 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 69 43 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 72 47 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ007-008-012-
013-018>020-026-030>032.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
