Forecast Discussion
603
FXUS64 KOUN 161046
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
546 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
- There is risk for severe thunderstorm across parts of our area
through at least Tuesday of next week.
- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible most
afternoons across far western Oklahoma into western north
Texas.
- Very warm to hot temperatures are expected through this weekend
with a cooler weather by Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning in
association with two mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) from the
remnants of last night`s convection. A strong low-level jet (40
to 50 knots) will result in a continued risk of strong, southerly
wind gusts from momentum transfer with any downdrafts. Showers may
persist through mid-morning across far east-central/southeast
Oklahoma as this activity gradually shifts to the east.
Another hot afternoon is expected across western Oklahoma into
western north Texas on the eastern edge of the low-level thermal
ridge with afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s to mid 100s deg
F. To the east, temperatures will range from the mid 80s to low
90s deg F.
The anomalous heat, gusty southerly winds, and low humidity will
result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions in
close proximity to the 100th meridian. One feature that will have
to monitored this afternoon for the fire weather risk is the
exact location of the dryline. There has been a signal/trend that
the dryline may stay farther to the west than originally
anticipated, which would keep the worst fire weather conditions
to the west of the 100th meridian. A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for far western Oklahoma into western north Texas for this
afternoon.
With respect to severe weather, the probability for convection
initiation (CI) at a given location along the dryline is low (10%)
with no wave to provide synoptic-scale ascent/appreciable height
falls across the Southern Plains. A warm elevated mixed layer
(EML) will be a deterrent to convection (e.g., 700 mb temperatures
~13 deg C). Currently, the most likely areas to see CI are across
western north Texas and northwest Oklahoma. Western north Texas
will likely experience the hottest surface temperatures east of
the dryline and northwest Oklahoma will be in close proximity to a
surface low (i.e., more surface convergence). If thunderstorms
develop, supercells are possible with a threat for damaging wind
gusts and large hail.
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
For Sunday, the probability for CI along the dryline is a only a
little higher as stronger mid-level flow and subtle synoptic-
scale ascent approaches from the west. Even so, with a warm
elevated mixed layer remaining in place, thunderstorms are not a
guarantee along the dryline. Currently, the most likely area for
CI is across northwest Oklahoma, which will be closer to the
strongest synopic-scale ascent. If thunderstorms develop,
supercells are possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and
large hail. The chance of showers/storms may increase Sunday night
with an attendant increase in isentropic ascent/warm air
advection. Currently, the highest chance for this is across
southeast Oklahoma.
For Monday, the primary shortwave trough is forecast to lift into
the Central Plains. A highly unstable air mass is forecast to the
east of the dryline with deep, low-level moisture and vertical
wind shear sufficient for supercells. However, a couple synoptic-
scale details currently temper the risk. First, the stronger
forcing is to the north. Therefore, convective coverage along the
dryline in Oklahoma and western north Texas remains uncertain with
southern extent. The highest chance of storms and severe weather
will be across northwestern into north central Oklahoma (i.e., in
closer proximity to the wave). Farther to the south, low-level
convergence along the dryline may still be sufficient for CI
given a weaker cap than previous days. Second, weaker winds in the
upper-levels (e.g., 300 to 200 mb) may result in more high-
precipitation (HP) supercells and poor ventilation aloft. This
may result in messier storm structures. However, given the
magnitude of instability and low-level moisture, any supercells
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
tornadoes. By Monday night, a cold front will approach northwest
Oklahoma with the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms along
the boundary.
Depending on the location of the dryline, fire weather conditions
may also be a concern Monday afternoon. Currently, it appears the
dryline will be near or just east of the 100th meridian. Critical
fire weather conditions are possible to the west of the dryline
with gusty south-southwest winds and very low humidity.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
For Tuesday, the risk of severe weather will be dependent on how
far south the cold front advances to the southeast Monday night.
Strong to severe thunderstorms may redevelop Tuesday afternoon
along the cold front as it advances to the southeast. The latest
trend is a slower frontal passage, so a larger part of our area
has a risk of storms on Tuesday.
While cooler weather is expected in the front`s wake for
Wednesday, another wave will approach with the potential for
widespread showers/storms to the north of the front Wednesday into
Thursday. Given these storms should be elevated (i.e., north of
the front), the risk of any strong to severe thunderstorms would
be limited to hail (modulated by the magnitude of elevated
instability).
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Scattered thunderstorms, currently crossing southwest Oklahoma,
may continue on its eastward track through the morning and
potentially affect KOUN briefly after dawn. Today, gusty southerly
winds are expected with LLWS forecast tonight. While there is a
marginal risk of severe storms across western Oklahoma, chances
are very low (less than 15%). Stratus is then forecast to advect
into southern Oklahoma towards the end of the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 89 71 88 71 / 10 10 10 20
Hobart OK 98 70 94 69 / 10 10 10 20
Wichita Falls TX 94 71 92 71 / 10 10 10 20
Gage OK 99 69 96 67 / 10 10 20 10
Ponca City OK 92 71 91 72 / 10 10 10 30
Durant OK 89 73 89 75 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
evening for OKZ004-009-010-014-021-022-033>036.
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ083.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion