Forecast Discussion
361 FXUS64 KOUN 241827 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 127 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 125 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 - Above normal temperatures through the upcoming week. - Higher rain chances return to northwestern areas early this week. Little to no rain expected in the southeast. - Rain chances increase again towards the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Upper ridge that has been in control of our pleasant weather the last several days will remain entrenched across Oklahoma and eastern Texas northward through the Mississippi River Valley and the Great Lakes region today and tonight. Only the slow approach of a closed low over the southwest will bring a few more high clouds this afternoon and tonight. Any precip will remain well west of the forecast area through tonight. This increase in cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler across the west(mid/upper 70s), elsewhere afternoon high temperatures will climb into the 80 to 85 degree range once again. Winds will remain relatively light (at least by Oklahoma standards) at 5 to 15 mph from the south. A few higher gusts will be possible across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Tonight will also be similar to the last couple as winds go light from the south and southeast, but an increase in cloud cover will keep overnight lows up a few degrees. By Sunday morning most locations will be in the mid/upper 50s and a few low 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 As we go through the day Sunday we will see the ridge retreat eastward ever so slightly as a jet streak comes around the base of the closed low over the four corners area. As this occurs the upper low then begins to lift northeast and become an open wave. With the ridge continuing to be the dominate feature across much of the lower/mid Mississippi River Valley into Texas and Oklahoma, much of the forcing and associated precip remains to the west and northwest of the area Sunday and Sunday night. Low precip chances will enter northwest Oklahoma as we go through the night. Models do show a minor shortwave trough that does lift north out of northern Mexico as we go the day Monday through west Texas into western Oklahoma. This may bring low probabilities of another light round of rainfall to western Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday. Although no real change in airmass occurring, but mostly cloudy conditions will allow some limitations to daytime temperatures, with mainly 70s across the area for highs Monday afternoon. The main part of the shortwave then translates northward Monday night into Tuesday. Highest precip chances will occur at this time, again mainly across western into northern Oklahoma, but low chances may spread a bit farther south and east to include central sections of the state. However, if precip does occur that far east, amounts will be light. Temperatures Tuesday will be similar to Monday with light to moderate south winds. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 If we do see this secondary wave Monday Night/Tuesday, it is projected to move east of the area late Tuesday pushing the precipitation chances northeast of the area. There is now more consistent signal between the operational GFS and ECMWF of a large-scale trough developing across the western United States late this week, and ensemble cluster analysis only shows roughly a 13 percent chance of upper-level ridging from southwest Texas to the Intermountain West that yesterday`s 00Z operational ECMWF run showed. So it is much more likely that we will be in a pattern with southwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation chances increase late this week with the arrival of low-level moisture from the Gulf and any shortwaves in the southwesterly flow aloft, however the timing of the best chances of showers and storms will be a little uncertain as it will depend on timing of individual shortwaves which are difficult to resolve this far in advance. Afternoon highs will remain above average for this time of year as autumn-like air remains locked in the northwestern United States and western Canada through the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Light south to southeast winds (with some afternoon breeziness in northwest Oklahoma) will continue with VFR conditions through the TAF period. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 59 79 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 60 79 58 75 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 61 81 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 56 77 56 74 / 0 10 30 30 Ponca City OK 56 79 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 57 82 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...14
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion