Forecast Discussion
358 FXUS64 KOUN 041135 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 635 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 557 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 - Showers are ongoing across south central/southeastern Oklahoma into parts of western north Texas early this morning. - Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected for the week ahead. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 Numerous showers have persisted across south central/southeast Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas due to a persistent upper-level trough axis/weakness aloft. As this feature gradually shifts to the southeast through the morning hours, shower coverage is expected to diminish. Some patchy fog is also occurring this morning with light winds and a saturated boundary layer. Cloud cover will also clear from north to south, leaving mostly sunny skies for the most locations this afternoon. However, western north Texas could see some cloud cover linger a bit longer. With more sunshine area wide, high temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s deg F for all locations. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 With a relatively dry air mass and northerly winds, Monday morning low temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s deg F across most locations. Some localized areas in northern Oklahoma could see temperatures dropping into the upper 40s deg F. No significant change in air mass is expected on Monday, so afternoon temperatures will be once again in the 70s and 80s deg F (which is slightly above normal for early October). By Tuesday, a strengthening low-level thermal ridge and the return to southerly winds will result in warmer weather with high temperatures in the low to upper 80s deg F. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue for the week ahead. The temperature spread in bias-corrected probabilistic guidance is low, which indicates high confidence of no appreciable cool down next week. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s deg F with some locations potentially around 90 deg F (most likely across southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas). An upper-level low is forecast to pass by across Texas late Friday into Saturday; however, the current forecast track would keep any chance for rain to our southeast. Therefore, the forecast remains dry for now. Mahale && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 Areas of broken stratus although not widespread with a few areas of localized fog will persist through much of the morning hours with some impact on our terminals. Not expecting any ceilings across northern Oklahoma although should fog develop terminals KPNC, KSWO, and KWWR could briefly reduce to a MVFR category through 15Z. Lowering ceilings across central through southwest Oklahoma could reduce terminals KOKC, KOUN, and KLAW to a MVFR category through 15Z. Localized dense fog in the vicinity of terminal KCSM in west-central Oklahoma could reduce that terminal down to a LIFR category at least through 15Z. Rain showers with very low ceilings along the Red River may also reduce terminals KSPS & KDUA to periods of IFR to LIFR categories at least through 16Z. Although expecting terminal KSPS to improve to a VFR category by 18Z but expecting terminal KDUA to vary between a MVFR to as low as a LIFR category up through 23Z. All terminals will be in a VFR category after 00Z (with many before) under clear skies. Although not in the forecast due to uncertainty this far out in time, there is another potential for radiational fog developing toward the end of this forecast period. Surface winds will stay northerly at 10-15 kts before going light & variable after 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 82 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 84 56 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 84 58 84 56 / 40 0 0 0 Gage OK 80 52 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 79 53 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 85 60 86 55 / 60 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...68
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion