Forecast Discussion
778 FXUS64 KOUN 011324 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 824 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 822 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 - Cool, temperatures are expected through Saturday, then a warming trend to above normal temperatures into next week. - Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Sunday afternoon across portions of northwest Oklahoma with breezy, warm and dry conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 822 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Lowered rain chances today based on latest observations and model trends. Very low probabilities (15 to 20%) exist over far southern portions of our western north Texas counties. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Weather will continue on the cool (highs in the 60s / lows in the 40s) and cloudy side with some light rain chances on the fringes. As an upper wave approaches from the west, we may see some scattered light showers over north Texas through the night and into the morning hours. Overall accumulations will range from a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch. With little to no instability, lightning is unlikely. Another wave will approach from the north, yielding even lower rain chances across northern Oklahoma Friday evening / overnight -- again, no lightning or significant accumulations expected. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Saturday and Sunday will be dry with a warming trend as the upper waves depart and ridging starts to move in. Maximum temperatures will be in the 70s (Saturday) and 80s (Sunday). Sunday will also present some elevated fire weather as breezy south southwest winds develop over RH values in the mid to upper teens over northwest Oklahoma. Excellent overnight RH recoveries have helped ERCs to come down even in the northwest, leaving us with fuels in the 50th to 69th percentile range predicted for Sunday. Day && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 Next week will be marked by mild to warm temperatures (70s and 80s). A few waves moving through the northern stream aloft will bring low chances for precipitation late Monday through Wednesday, with the highest chances being in the north. Models continue to show a front moving through sometime on Tuesday (with the latest runs showing a faster progression), though timing remains uncertain as ensemble and run-to-run consistency are both low. Day && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026 VFR conditions continue this morning although ceilings have lowered just south and west of the area. Don`t expect any terminals to see rain today though it isn`t out of the question at SPS or DUA. Cloud bases will drop to 5,000 or so feet across the western/southern fringes of the CWA this afternoon before clearing tonight. Winds remain from the northeast through sunset, then become variable. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 45 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 69 44 77 47 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 67 45 77 49 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 67 39 76 45 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 69 45 71 46 / 0 20 0 0 Durant OK 67 47 73 48 / 20 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...04
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion