Forecast Discussion
137 FXUS65 KTWC 302107 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 207 PM MST Tue Jun 30 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy southwest winds continue today and tomorrow which will result in elevated fire weather conditions. A dry forecast is in place for this week. High temperatures right around around normal today then warm up to several degrees above normal for the July 4th holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor shows an amplified pattern over CONUS with high pressure over the eastern half U.S. and troughing over the west. The troughing has led to breezy afternoon winds which will continue through tomorrow. Temperatures today and tomorrow will also be a couple degrees below normal. By the end of the work week the ridge will begin to expand westward as the trough retreats northward. This will allow temperatures to increase to around normal through July 4 with winds subsiding as well except for normal afternoon gustiness. By Sunday models show mid-level winds becoming southerly and moisture begins to increase. It`s possible by mid next week the ridge sets up around the Four Corners region. This will also increase temperatures to a few degrees above normal. Still a ways off but models are showing signs of the typical monsoon pattern setting up. PWAT values will be around normal to just above normal early next week. This will be enough for a chance (20-40 percent) for storms in the White Mountains and along the AZ/NM border Monday with chances expanding west Tuesday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds near the higher terrain this afternoon, SKC at other times. SFC winds W-SW 12-20 kts with ocnl gusts up to 30 kts, slowly diminishing after 01/03Z. Winds terrain driven less than 10 kts overnight becoming W-SW again Wednesday afternoon 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy conditions will continue across the area today and Wednesday with elevated fire weather conditions expected. 20-foot winds will be out of the southwest 12-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph each afternoon. Dry conditions through much of the upcoming week with minimum relative humidity levels in the 10-20 percent today becoming 5-12 percent Wednesday- Saturday. Winds will be lower Thursday into this weekend. Moisture may begin to creep back into the region Sunday into early next week being RH values up and a chance for showers and thunderstorms along the AZ/NM border Monday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion