Forecast Discussion
747 FXUS64 KOUN 291715 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 - Rain chances increase late Thursday through Saturday. Highest rain totals western OK and western north TX. - Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week, low confidence on details. - Near to above normal temperatures persist into early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Water vapor imagery shows increasing clouds across TX early this morning as moisture associated with the remnants of Vance makes its way across Mexico within broad southwest flow aloft. Clouds will continue to build over our area ahead of this system today, with scattered rain showers expected to make their way into our western north TX and southwest OK counties later this afternoon into this evening. Better rain chances will arrive overnight into the day on Friday as the main wave of moisture moves over the area. The best forcing continues to be forecast across western OK and western north TX which is where the steadier precipitation is expected much of tonight, with rain more showery/scattered in nature further north and east. Instability appears quite limited but could be enough for the occasional lightning strike, with overall probabilities for lightning near 10-20% for any one location. Ware && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Steady rain will continue into the day on Friday across western OK, becoming lighter later in the afternoon into the evening as forcing begins to weaken over the area. Chances for scattered showers will continue into Saturday across central/eastern portions of the area, clearing from west to east during the afternoon as the system exits. As far as rainfall amounts, the highest rainfall totals are favored within a swath stretching from western north TX across much of western OK and into north-central OK, where totals of 0.75-1.5" are most likely. Much lighter amounts are expected across southeast/south-central OK where some areas may only see a tenth of an inch or less through Saturday evening. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Drier conditions are expected through Sunday morning but will not last long as troughing over the western US amplifies and moves into the central US. Models continue to struggle with the evolution of the trough as it moves into the Plains, with solutions ranging from a slower, deeper cutoff low to more of an open wave moving across our area. This will have implications for rainfall amounts and severe weather potential, and obviously timing, for our area. For now, the best model consensus would suggest at least low end severe weather potential Monday into Monday night as moisture surges northward ahead of a dryline/pacific front, followed by cooler temperatures and perhaps continued shower activity Tuesday on the backside of the trough. However, given the uncertainty expect the details to continue to evolve as we draw closer. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 All of our terminals should remain in a VFR category at least through 00Z and gradually degrade a bit through the end of the forecast period. A Pacific-based upper level system will be lifting from western Texas into our area starting after 00Z bringing mostly steady rain with low chances for a few embedded thunderstorms. Will see ceilings lower with stratus as this system moves in to at least an MVFR category along with slight reductions in visibility in the rain as this system moves in north and east across our terminals and will persist through the end of the forecast period with rain probabilities likely. The rain will likely reach our terminals in central Oklahoma by 12Z. Surface winds will remain out of the south around 10 kts then go light and southeasterly after 00Z then light & variable overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 61 70 57 70 / 40 100 50 40 Hobart OK 60 68 56 71 / 80 100 60 20 Wichita Falls TX 61 71 57 74 / 80 90 60 40 Gage OK 57 66 51 68 / 20 100 60 10 Ponca City OK 61 74 56 71 / 20 90 50 30 Durant OK 63 76 59 75 / 20 30 30 60 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...68
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion