Forecast Discussion
140 FXUS65 KTWC 010929 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 229 AM MST Fri May 1 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy winds with a modest warming trend is expected this weekend. A Pacific weather system will likely cross the region in the early to middle portions of next week, however currently the track of this system favors keeping chances for showers to the central and northern portions of Arizona. && .DISCUSSION... Northwest flow aloft will keep high temperatures today sitting at or just below normal across southeastern Arizona. Lingering mid-level moisture and a shortwave dropping into the region through tonight will bring a chance of showers to high elevation areas of Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee counties, with greatest chances for wetting rain in the White Mountains of northern Greenlee. With the late arriving shortwave, isolated showers should linger late through the evening tonight. Another batch of isolated light showers (mainly tied to eastern mountain areas again) on Saturday is possible with the slow to exit shortwave still overhead. Additionally an associated tightened pressure gradient will bring increased southeasterly winds mainly to the Gila River valley from early Saturday morning into Sunday. The forecast through much of the next week will depend on a deepening then temporarily closed east Pacific low, likely setting up over the California coast this weekend. As southeastern Arizona sits upstream of this low to start out, highs for the area will rise a few degrees from today. As a jet max begins to extend out of the base of this low by late this weekend, surface winds will turn to the southwest to west and increase each afternoon Sunday through early next week. Ensemble models are in improving agreement with the trough passage occurring Tuesday into Wednesday, however precipitation chances look less clear. Most guidance keeps the trough positively tilted (a weaker orientation for precipitation chances) and just a bit too far to the north. Current forecast shower chances sit around 5-20 percent (highest in the White Mountains) on Tuesday but there remains time for things to shift. Temperatures likely fall below normal with the trough passage, rising again through the second half of the work week. && .AVIATION Valid through 02/12Z... Clearing skies this morning with lingering 5k-8k ft ceilings at KDUG through 01/14Z. Redevelopment of FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-13k ft AGL east of KTUS-KOLS after 01/18Z, with a very slight chance of an isolated shower near the New Mexico border. Surface winds light and terrain driven then west- northwest 8-13 kts after 01/17Z. Winds become east-southeast after 02/05Z, especially in eastern locations including KSAD-KDUG. Strongest winds through Saturday likely at KSAD with 15-20 kt winds and gusts to 28 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Minimum relative humidity mainly above 15-20 percent through early next week (lower through this weekend west of Tucson). An approaching system will increase winds this weekend into early next week as well. Winds will become southeasterly early Saturday morning, especially in eastern areas open to east- southeast flow. Winds of 18-23 mph with gusts to 35 mph forecast Saturday through the Gila River valley, with breezy but not as strong winds elsewhere. Winds then turn south to southwesterly Sunday and southwesterly Monday and Tuesday with 15 to 20 mph winds and gusts to 35 mph in the windier spots possible each afternoon. The crossing system Tuesday into Wednesday may bring a chance of showers, however the probability of wetting rain is on the low side and mainly contained to mountain areas. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Edwards FIRE WEATHER...Edwards Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion