Forecast Discussion
083
FXUS64 KOUN 211058
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
558 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
- EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY, with highs near 105
degrees and heat indices 105 to 115 degrees.
- Dangerous heat expected to persist most days into at least
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
Today will mark the beginning of what looks to be an extended period
of very hot weather for the area as a large upper ridge parks itself
over the southern Plains. Rising heights and warming mid-level
temps, along with a westerly (downslope) surface wind, will help
push high temperatures well over 100 degrees across the entire
area this afternoon, with many locations forecast to surpass 105
degrees. Perhaps the hottest temperatures today will be across
north-central OK ahead of a weak front where compressional
warming ahead of the front (pre-frontal "torching") could nudge
temperatures close to 110 degrees in a few locations. Mercifully,
the 70+ degree dewpoints we have been experiencing recently are
forecast to mix mostly to our east this afternoon, meaning heat
indices are likely to be within a few degrees of air temperatures
for most of the area, but still expect some areas along/east of
I-35 could see heat indices 110-115. Bottom line, this
afternoon`s heat could prove dangerous for anyone spending
extended periods of time outdoors this afternoon and everyone is
encouraged to take breaks from outside when possible and to stay
hydrated!
A few of the convective allowing models are showing a signal for
isolated showers and storms this afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached. With a dry subcloud layer expect that
anything that develops will struggle to produce much in the way of
rainfall. The best chance for an isolated shower/storm will be
across northern OK close to the weak frontal boundary, but even here
chances are only about ~10%.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
The weak front will backdoor farther into the area from the
northeast Wednesday, eventually stalling out across southwest
portions of the area. "Cooler" air will work into portions of
northern and central OK behind the front, with highs here only in
the 90s Wednesday afternoon, with another day of 100s elsewhere
across southern/western OK and western north TX. Could once again
so some isolated convective development Wednesday afternoon near
the stalling boundary, but chances are only ~10% for any one
location.
The front will dissipate Thursday but winds across eastern OK will
maintain a bit of a southeast component, helping keep temperatures
from soaring too quickly. Expect highs of 100-105 west of I-35, with
mid to upper 90s east.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
A weak shortwave will round the northern portion of the upper ridge
on Friday, helping send a front into the area. Models are still not
in great agreement on precipitation chances with the front, but at
least isolated showers and storms appear probable for at least
portions of the area Friday afternoon and evening. Upper ridging
will then strengthen further over the region this weekend into early
next week, bringing a return of areawide triple digit heat and
lowering precipitation chances to near zero through the remainder
of the long term period.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
VFR conditions to continue.
Light southwest winds will shift to the west this morning and then
to the north and northeast as a weak front moves south across
the area today. Overnight winds will come back around to the east
and southeast. Other than some high-based afternoon cu, skies will
be clear.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 106 78 98 74 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 105 77 102 75 / 0 0 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 105 78 103 77 / 0 0 10 0
Gage OK 104 74 99 74 / 10 10 0 10
Ponca City OK 103 74 92 71 / 10 0 0 20
Durant OK 104 80 100 76 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
OKZ004-005-009-010-014>017-021>023-027-033>039-044-045.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020-024>026-028>032-040>043-
046>048-050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion