Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 101028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
328 AM MST Fri Apr 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will bring cooler temperatures and a
chance of showers late tonight through Saturday. A few thunderstorms
may also occur with this system. A warming trend will follow early
next week. However, a chance of showers returns Monday, especially
northeast of Tucson.


.DISCUSSION...We patiently wait for that cut-off low near San
Diego to finally eject east across the area. At this time, per
good model consensus, it should occur on Saturday into early
Sunday morning. For today, another sunny and breezy day with high
temperatures at or a few degrees warmer than yesterday.

Tonight: Clouds will be west of Tucson with a chance of showers
after midnight as the center of the closed low is near Yuma.

Saturday: The closed low opens up with showers moving east across
the area. A few thunderstorms are possible associated with cold
pool aloft. Snow levels mainly in the 6500-7500 foot range with a
few inches possible at the highest elevations. QPF totals in the
valleys mainly less than a quarter of an inch. Highs 5-12 degrees
cooler than today.

Saturday night: Showers ending from west to east by midnight as
the open wave moves into New Mexico.

Sunday: A few rain/snow showers in the Whites otherwise dry and

Sunday night: A few rain/snow showers in the Whites continue. Dry

Monday and Monday night: An upper level trof moving in from the
north will bring a chance of valley rain and mountain snow to
mainly northeast of Tucson Monday afternoon and evening.

Tuesday through Thursday: Dry with warmer temperatures.


.AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z.
SKC through 11/00z then clouds increase and thicken west of KTUS
thru the end of the valid period. A few -SHRA well west of KTUS
after 11/06z. SFC winds less than 10 kts this morning becoming
S-SW 10-18 kts with ocnl gusts 15-25 kts this afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry today then a weather system will bring a chance
of showers spreading in from the west late tonight into Saturday.
A few thunderstorms may also occur at times. Sunday will see a
slight chance of showers in the White Mountains. On Monday shower
chances increase again mainly north and east of Tucson. Expect dry
conditions thereafter. 20-foot winds will have their normal April
gustiness over the next week with the exception of Monday afternoon
which could see some elevated wind speeds.





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