Forecast Discussion
644 FXUS65 KTWC 210900 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 200 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area through the weekend then temperatures gradually cool next week leading up to Thanksgiving Day. && .DISCUSSION...Upper ridge will continue to amplify over the area today bringing another 4 to 9 degrees of warming today. Slightly warmer tomorrow and Saturday, with highs running 5 to 12 degrees above normal, depending on location. The upper ridge flattens over the weekend which will start a gradual cooling trend on Sunday that will continue into Thanksgiving Day. This cooling trend is associated with an increase moister mid-high level zonal flow over the area, which will lead to periods of partly to mostly cloudy conditions and some daytime breeziness. Low levels remain dry and any dynamics will remain north of the area. Can`t rule out very slight chance, less than 20%, of light precipitation across the White mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 22/12Z. Clear skies to SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind 10 kts or less, favoring a NLY/NELY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend. There will then be a slight chance of showers mainly across the northeast portions of the forecast area Tuesday into Thursday of next week. High temperatures will be 8-12 degrees above normal through Saturday, lowering back to 3-5 degrees above normal early next week. Min RH values will be 8-15 percent in the valleys and 10- 20 percent in the mountains through the weekend. Min RH values will then increase 8-15 percent early next week. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less and terrain driven at most locations through early next week, with the potential for elevated southwest winds Sunday through Tuesday mainly across Cochise County. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion