Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 222140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
240 PM MST Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a warming trend over the weekend and into next
week. High temperatures peak next Tuesday, with readings across
southeast Arizona topping out 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Dry
conditions persist throughout the forecast.


.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery reveals an upper low tracking
over the Rocky Mountains, with dry air pushing into southeast
Arizona on the back side of the trough. Under this feature,
temperatures are several degrees below normal for this time of year.
Strong upper ridging begins to build in this weekend, continuing
into the start of next week. This maintains fair weather with
passing cirroform clouds, and temperatures progressively ramp up
into the start of next week. By Tuesday, temperatures approach 90
degrees across some of the lower deserts.

The ridge flattens out a bit later in the week as troughing shoves
into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern taps into modest mid to
upper-level moisture allowing clouds to thicken at times. This
provides some relief from the warmer temperatures seen earlier in
the week and additional height falls bring high temps closer to
normal by Friday. Afternoon winds also become a bit breezy at times
during the period due to the tightening gradient.


.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
SFC wind generally less than 12 kts through the period, except for
WLY/NWLY winds 10-15 kts and some gusts to near 25 knots, primarily
east of KTUS and in the vicinity of KSAD into early this evening.
VFR conditions with SKC to SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend into
next week across southeast Arizona. Breezy west to northwest 20-foot
winds are expected at times each afternoon and evening across
eastern areas through this weekend. Of the three days, the strongest
winds will be this afternoon with sustained speeds 15 to 20 mph and
gusts 25 to 30 mph in a few locations. 20-foot winds will become
easterly Monday into Tuesday, then breezy to locally windy from the
west mid to late next week.





Aviation/Fire Wx...Carpenter

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