000 FXUS65 KTWC 242152 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 252 PM MST Thu Sep 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather persists for the foreseeable future with temperatures that remain 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal. && .DISCUSSION...The current 500mb pattern shows a broad trough over the northwestern US, directing the ridge south over our area. These anomalous heights are to blame for our persistent hot and dry weather. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low 100s across the lower deserts today. Satellite imagery shows a few puffs of cumulus over the mountains, but that`s about all we can manage with this tragic moisture profile. So for those hoping for a glimpse of rain to end the monsoon season, unfortunately you`ll have to look elsewhere. Southeast Arizona is dry area-wide throughout the forecast period. It`s not all bad news though. 24 hours ago we were looking at a chance for record breaking heat on Monday and Tuesday, but most model guidance has trended away from that recently. As the trough moves east and digs down the central US early next week, the ridge builds over the western states, but the orientation has shifted enough to shave off a few degrees from our high temps. There`s still a decent amount of uncertainty on Tuesday, with about a 4 degree standard deviation in the NBM high temperature guidance. Bottom line, it`s going to be above normal throughout the forecast period, but perhaps not as hot as initially thought. && .AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z. SKC through forecast period except FEW-SCT clouds at 12-16k ft MSL through 25/02z. Surface winds are generally variable and less than 10 kts through the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the end of September. 20-ft winds will be mostly light following typical diurnal trends with the exception of Monday into Tuesday where easterly winds, at times potentially gusty, are expected. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
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