Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS65 KTWC 082057 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 157 PM MST Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Generally dry with breezy afternoons. Temperatures running several degrees below average for early June through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Dry west southwest flow aloft with some a few clouds this afternoon between a mid/upper low over Nevada and subtropical high well to the south of Baja. With below normal heights for early June, highs this afternoon are running about 6 to 9 degrees below normal. Periods of cirroform clouds will continue into Friday ahead of a weak disturbance aloft with highs on Friday similar to today. For this weekend, brief shortwave ridging on Saturday, transitioning to southwest flow ahead of an upper low off the California coast will allow temperatures to rebound to within a few degrees of normal which is now 100 in Tucson. That brief warming will be short lived though as the mid/upper low moves east into southern California Sunday, then into Utah/northern AZ on Monday. This system will bring breezy conditions area-wide on Sunday, then mainly to areas east of Tucson Monday. Meanwhile, temperatures Sunday and Monday will be about 7 to 10 degrees below normal. A gradual warming trend will commence the middle of next week due to ridging building aloft. By late next week, chances of triple digit heat returning for Tucson and the lower deserts increase. && .AVIATION...valid through 10/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft MSL. Sfc winds WLY-SWLY 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, decreasing aft 09/03Z to less than 10 kts. SWLY winds around 10 kts resume aft 09/18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with min RH values generally 5-15% in the valleys and 10-20% in the mountains. A few afternoon breezes through Friday then increasing west to southwest winds this weekend as a weather system passes to our north and west. Critical fire weather conditions are possible for much of the area on Sunday, then areas east of Tucson on Monday. Thereafter, afternoon breezes continue but remain below critical levels. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion