Forecast Discussion
223
FXUS65 KTWC 252023
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
123 PM MST Tue Mar 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Warmest temperatures so far for 2025 will continue
through midweek. After Thursday temperatures cool down to 4-8
degrees above normal. Winds will also be breezy Friday and Saturday
afternoons.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A strong mid/upper level ridge remains in control of
our weather today, with this afternoon featuring the hottest
temperatures so far of 2025. Skies are mostly sunny across southeast
Arizona, though some cirroform cloudiness is being observed along
the Int`l border in Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties.
The ridging aloft will breakdown and shift eastward as broad
troughing continues to undercut it from the south and west. The mid
level southerly flow on the eastern flank of the trough will
transport some increased mid level moisture into western New Mexico
and far eastern Arizona on Wednesday. This increased moisture will
result in a few cloud build-ups, especially in the White Mountains
and Chiricahua Mountains along with a slight chance of dry
lightning. Any storms near the AZ/NM border may also result in some
gusty outflow winds Wednesday afternoon into early evening.
Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for the rest of
southeast Arizona with considerable mid and high level cloudiness.
While temperatures will remain well above normal Wednesday, highs
will be about 3 to 6 degrees cooler compared to today.
Brief shortwave ridging for Thursday with sunny skies and highs
similar to Wednesday.
For Friday and Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten
resulting in increased afternoon winds as a weather system passes to
our north. These increased afternoon breezes will bring elevated
fire weather conditions east of Tucson. Meanwhile, daytime
temperatures will continue to cool off with highs back down to
seasonable levels on Sunday. Thereafter, dry westerly zonal flow
early next week with seasonable to slightly above
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL along the international border through
26/00Z then spreading further north and becoming BKN thereafter AOA
14k ft AGL. SFC winds southwest to northwest 8-12 kts (except SE at
KDUG terminal), becoming light and variable aft 26/03Z. Sfc winds
aft 26/16Z become southerly to southwesterly, then transition to
more southwesterly to westerly Wednesday afternoon with gusts 15-20
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions expected over the new few
days. Afternoon temperatures across Southeast Arizona 12 to 20
degrees above climatological normals through Thursday with today
being the warmest day. Humidities will remain at critical levels
throughout the next 7 days with lower locations in the single
digits and mountains bottoming out in the lower teens.
Wednesday, a weak weather system will move across the region
bringing a slight chance (10-20 percent) of isolated dry
thunderstorms over the Chiricahua and White Mountains. Friday and
Saturday another weather system moves through to the north bringing
breezy conditions each afternoon. This will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions mainly east of Tucson both days.
&&
.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures today.
DATE Mar 25
FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 96 94/1896
AJO 97 96/2022
KITT PEAK 78 72/1990
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 98 96/2022
PICACHO PEAK 93 92/2022
SAFFORD AG STATION 91 88/1956
SIERRA VISTA FD 86 87/1988
TOMBSTONE 86 88/1988
WILLCOX 87 86/2012
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
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