000 FXUS65 KTWC 222140 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 240 PM MST Fri Mar 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Expect a warming trend over the weekend and into next week. High temperatures peak next Tuesday, with readings across southeast Arizona topping out 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Dry conditions persist throughout the forecast. && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery reveals an upper low tracking over the Rocky Mountains, with dry air pushing into southeast Arizona on the back side of the trough. Under this feature, temperatures are several degrees below normal for this time of year. Strong upper ridging begins to build in this weekend, continuing into the start of next week. This maintains fair weather with passing cirroform clouds, and temperatures progressively ramp up into the start of next week. By Tuesday, temperatures approach 90 degrees across some of the lower deserts. The ridge flattens out a bit later in the week as troughing shoves into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern taps into modest mid to upper-level moisture allowing clouds to thicken at times. This provides some relief from the warmer temperatures seen earlier in the week and additional height falls bring high temps closer to normal by Friday. Afternoon winds also become a bit breezy at times during the period due to the tightening gradient. && .AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z. SFC wind generally less than 12 kts through the period, except for WLY/NWLY winds 10-15 kts and some gusts to near 25 knots, primarily east of KTUS and in the vicinity of KSAD into early this evening. VFR conditions with SKC to SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail this weekend into next week across southeast Arizona. Breezy west to northwest 20-foot winds are expected at times each afternoon and evening across eastern areas through this weekend. Of the three days, the strongest winds will be this afternoon with sustained speeds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 25 to 30 mph in a few locations. 20-foot winds will become easterly Monday into Tuesday, then breezy to locally windy from the west mid to late next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Discussion...Howlett Aviation/Fire Wx...Carpenter Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
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