Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 221040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
340 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers ending northeast of Tucson this
morning. Dry conditions today through Tuesday with daytime
temperatures warming this weekend into early next week. Expect
valley rain and mountain snow to return Wednesday through the
Thanksgiving 4 day holiday period.


.DISCUSSION...Radar this morning was still showing isolated light
showers/high elevations snow showers mainly north and northeast
of Tucson. Activity will be ending northeast of Tucson by mid
morning. Current partly to mostly cloudy conditions will be
improving as the day progresses as weather system to our north
moves on east. Can`t rule out isolated pockets of fog this
morning. Highs today will be similar to what occurred yesterday.

Short wave ridging this weekend will provide dry conditions along
with warmer temperatures with highs on Sunday at or a few degrees
above normal.

Water vapor imagery this morning shower a closed low around 750
west of LA. This system will continue to dive south-southeast over
the next 60 hours and be west of Baja Monday morning. This system
will tap into sub-tropical moisture early next week. Some of this
moisture will be transported north toward southern Arizona next
week in advance of a strong upper level trof that will be impacted
the wrn CONUS next week. For our area, it`ll be another multi-day
precipitation event starting late Tuesday and continuing into much
of the Thanksgiving 4-day holiday. This system is colder than the
most recent system, thus expect lower snow levels next week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z.
Isolated -SHRA and mountain SHSN NE of KTUS until 22/15z. SCT-BKN
cloud decks generally 6k-10k ft MSL clearing as the day
progresses. Surface wind variable in direction mainly under 12
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated valley rain and mountain snow northeast
of Tucson ending this morning. Dry conditions resume Friday into
early next week before another weather system impacts the region
from the middle to end of next week with valley rain and mountain
snow. Once gusty winds diminish this evening, 20-foot winds will
be less than 15 mph through the weekend.





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