Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 242152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
252 PM MST Thu Sep 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather persists for the foreseeable future with
temperatures that remain 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal.


.DISCUSSION...The current 500mb pattern shows a broad trough over
the northwestern US, directing the ridge south over our area. These
anomalous heights are to blame for our persistent hot and dry
weather. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low 100s across
the lower deserts today. Satellite imagery shows a few puffs of
cumulus over the mountains, but that`s about all we can manage with
this tragic moisture profile. So for those hoping for a glimpse of
rain to end the monsoon season, unfortunately you`ll have to look
elsewhere. Southeast Arizona is dry area-wide throughout the
forecast period.

It`s not all bad news though. 24 hours ago we were looking at a
chance for record breaking heat on Monday and Tuesday, but most
model guidance has trended away from that recently. As the trough
moves east and digs down the central US early next week, the ridge
builds over the western states, but the orientation has shifted
enough to shave off a few degrees from our high temps. There`s still
a decent amount of uncertainty on Tuesday, with about a 4 degree
standard deviation in the NBM high temperature guidance. Bottom
line, it`s going to be above normal throughout the forecast period,
but perhaps not as hot as initially thought.


.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
SKC through forecast period except FEW-SCT clouds at 12-16k ft MSL
through 25/02z. Surface winds are generally variable and less than
10 kts through the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures
will continue through the end of September. 20-ft winds will be
mostly light following typical diurnal trends with the exception of
Monday into Tuesday where easterly winds, at times potentially
gusty, are expected.




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