Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 282103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Tue Nov 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS... A cooling trend begins on Thursday due to an active
pattern brings valley rain and mountain snow Thursday into


.DISCUSSION...The ridge that is currently keeping us warm and dry
will continue to linger through tomorrow before giving way to the
incoming system that is currently spinning in the Pacific Ocean
off the coast of California.

The upper level low will work its way to the area late Wednesday
to early Thursday bringing the first round of chances for mountain
snow and valley rain. A second round of precipitation chances
begins Thursday night into Friday night as an inland shortwave
comes in. This second system continues to have the higher amounts
of precipitation, however the NBM has backed off in terms of storm
rain and snow totals, which is consistent with this drier
pattern. Timing has remained fairly the same with these two rounds
as well. Overall, both rounds remain below any Winter Weather
Advisory criteria with the main impacts of the systems being
breezy west to northwest winds, fairly light (up to 5 inches in
the White Mountains and up to 3 inches on Mt. Lemon) accumulation
of snow in elevations higher than 6500 feet, and slick roadways
in the valleys. This second system brings cooler minimum
temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings.

The troughiness begins to trek eastward out of the area on
Saturday and leaves a building ridge helping to rebound the high
temperatures to near to above normal for the begining of next


.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 8-12K ft MSL, SCT clouds AOA 20k ft MSL. SFC winds
will be generally southeasterly and less than 12 kts through
Wednesday morning then becoming west to southwest 8-14 kts AFT
29/19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry with temperatures a few degrees above average
again Wednesday with light 20ft winds.  A two-part storm system will
bring cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance of valley
showers and mountain snow showers at times Wednesday night through
Friday night. Some light snow accumulations are expected above about
6,500 ft over the Sky Islands north and east of Tucson and the White
Mountains Wednesday night into early Thursday morning and again
Thursday night through Friday night. Clearing and colder than normal
Saturday through Monday.





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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion