Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 050916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
216 AM MST Sun Jul 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are expected to prevail through Monday,
then enough moisture for a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms south and east of Tucson Tuesday and Wednesday and
then again by Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will generally be
slightly above normal through the forecast period.


.DISCUSSION...A clear down period for the monsoon is expected the
next couple of days as the atmosphere just remains a bit too dry
with lower level west to northwest continuing to advect in drier
air. This will keep build-ups limited mainly to areas along the
International border and along the White Mountains. With the drier
air and mid/upper high near the AZ/NM border through Monday,
temperatures will continue to be several degrees above normal.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, a modest increase in moisture is expected
due to a Gulf surge, however the surge will remain fairly shallow.
While PWAT values increase to around 1 to 1.4 inches from Tucson
westward and that is typically enough for a decent amount of
convection, given the depth of mid/upper level drier air and
subsidence with the high pressure aloft nearby, it will tough to get
much more than isolated shower and thunderstorm activity and that
will occur primarily to the south and east of Tucson. With the
uptick in moisture, temperatures may briefly drop to near normal
levels during this period.

Starting on Thursday, confidence is increasing that the mid/upper
level high will be intensifying with increasing heights heading into
next weekend. However, there are still some differences in the
guidance regarding the position of the high and whether it is closer
to us or placed a little bit further east in New Mexico. Regardless,
still a fairly quiet period with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms returning mainly south of Tucson Friday and Saturday
as temperatures warm back up by a few degrees.


.AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA may occur this afternoon mostly near the
International border SE-S of KTUS, and also across the White Mtns
northeast of KSAD. Brief outflow gusts to near 40 kts may be
observed. Otherwise, FEW clouds 10k-15k ft MSL this afternoon
northwest of KTUS and SKC at other times. KTUS vicinity ewd/swd,
FEW-BKN clouds 10k-15k ft MSL this afternoon and evening, and SKC-
FEW clouds above 15k ft MSL at other times. Surface wind variable in
direction generally under 12 kts, though favoring a wly/nwly
afternoon component. Surface wind vicinity KSAD this afternoon
wly/nwly with gusts near 25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated thunderstorms southeast-to-south of
Tucson Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Friday and Saturday during the
afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail
during this forecast period. Daytime minimum humidity mostly ranging
from 15-30 percent with good overnight recoveries. Aside from brief
gusty thunderstorm outflows, 20-foot will be mainly terrain driven
at less than 15 mph.






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