Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 152232

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
332 PM MST Thu Nov 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer weather has established across southeast
Arizona as temperatures hover closer to normal for this time of
year. Generally dry conditions persist, although a slight chance for
precipitation develops Tuesday evening over the White Mountains.


.DISCUSSION...After several cool and breezy days, temperatures have
warmed 5-10 degrees from 24 hours ago. Skies are generally clear,
with a few bands of cirrus approaching western Arizona. The strong
easterly winds have also come down as the surface gradient slackens,
allowing a return to typical diurnal flow. This lighter wind regime
looks to continue throughout the forecast period.

A fairly innocuous pattern remains through the coming days as dry
westerly flow dominates. This provides mild weather with passing
high-level clouds that thicken from time to time through the
weekend. On Monday next week, a progressive closed 500mb low
approaches the southern California coastline. However, model
solutions differ slightly as it comes ashore, nearing Arizona on
Tuesday. The 12Z deterministic GFS has the most aggressive scenario
maintaining the closed low, which results in a higher probability of
precipitation across the eastern portion of the forecast area
Tuesday night. Conversely, the ensemble guidance and ECMWF weaken
this feature into an open wave that produces a generally dry
forecast. For now, the forecast is assuming a slight chance of
showers around the White Mountains.

Ridging or westerly flow returns on Wednesday into Thursday allowing
for dry weather area wide. Temperatures show little variation
through the entirety of the forecast, maintaining close to seasonal


.AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z.
SKC until 16/02Z then FEW-SCT clouds above 20k ft AGL spreading in
from the west thru remainder of valid period. Surfaces winds
generally remain below 12 kts through the forecast period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Localized gusty east winds will continue into this
evening. A more typical diurnal wind regime returns on Friday,
although east winds return briefly Monday into Tuesday. Relative
humidities remain low until a modest increase occurs starting
Tuesday. This also brings a slight chance of precipitation to the
mountains and higher terrain for Tuesday night.






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