Forecast Discussion
002 FXUS65 KTWC 110914 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 214 AM MST Sat Apr 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be 4-8 degrees above normal the next couple of days. Breezy winds each afternoon through Monday. Cooler air leading to high temperatures 4-6 degrees below normal early next week and bring a slight chance for precip north and east of Tucson Monday. && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor shows a closed low off the coast of northern California and Oregon with a ridge downstream extending from the southern Plains to the northern Rockies. The Pacific low will move on shore today, begin to open up Sunday, then split into smaller shortwaves that move through the Great Basin and Arizona. This system looks to be mostly dry with the main sensible weather impact being strong gusty winds. However there is a slight chance (10-15 percent) of buildups today along the AZ/NM border and showers north of Tucson Monday afternoon. Winds will begin to increase today ahead of the Pacific low with speeds 12-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph. Some low-level drying will take place but general RH values will be 15-20 percent. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions for most of southeast Arizona this afternoon. Winds increase further Sunday and Monday with the strongest winds expected Monday. Speeds will be 18-25 mph with gusts 35-40 mph. RH values drop below 15 percent Sunday and this along with strong southwest winds and high fire danger will lead to critical fire weather conditions from central Pima County eastward. Because of this the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Monday winds stay strong, but moisture increases and temperatures cool, which leads to a reduced risk of fire weather conditions. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal this weekend then cool to a few degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday. Tucson will likely see highs in the 70s both days. After Monday brief zonal flow will be in place aloft before models bring another Pacific low into the western U.S. Still some uncertainty with the evolution of this low with the Euro keeping the low closed and having it dig south into the desert Southwest, while the GFS opens the low up and keeps a more eastward progression. && .AVIATION...Valid though 12/12Z. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 18k feet AGL with FEW-SCT 10k-15k AGL through the afternoon, thereafter becoming SKC. Some cloud buildups will be possible along the AZ/NM border this afternoon. Sfc winds light and terrain driven this morning becoming southwesterly 12-18 kts with gusts to 25 kts after 11/18Z. Winds become light and terrain driven after 12/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon winds west/southwest 12-18 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph today as a Pacific system approaches the region. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Winds increase further Sunday and Monday with speeds 15-25 mph and gusts 30 to 40 mph. Dryer conditions will be in place Sunday,which when combined with the strong winds and high fire danger, will lead to critical fire weather conditions. Because of this the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. While winds remain gusty Monday, cooler temperatures and increased moisture should help mitigate widespread fire weather concerns. Thereafter, winds generally 15 mph or less through the middle of next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ150>152. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion