Forecast Discussion
533 FXUS65 KTWC 301007 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 307 AM MST Tue Jun 30 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy southwest winds continue today and tomorrow which will result in areas of critical fire weather conditions. A dry forecast is in place for this week. High temperatures right around around normal today then warm up to several degrees above normal for the July 4th holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Elevated fire weather conditions will continue today and tomorrow as upper level trof over the western CONUS keeps breezy to locally windy southwest winds across the area. Less gradient type winds after Wednesday into the 4th of July holiday weekend as upper level high builds and expands across the area from the east and south. Highs today, the last day of June, will be right around normal then will slowly warm up as the week progresses. Mid-level moisture creeps back into the eastern areas late in the weekend for low end chance (10%-30%) of storms on Monday. The 8-14 day precipitation outlook for Tue Jul 7 to Mon Jul 13 is leaning above normal (34% north to 42% south) with the upper high potentially near the 4-corners, which brings a favorable monsoon flow pattern. Both the GFS/ECWMF deterministic models are showing an inverted trof moving west across northern Mexico next Tuesday and Wednesday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z. SKC to few clouds AOA 12k ft AGL thru much of valid pd. SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 kts thru 30/16z, then W-SW 12-22 kts with ocnl gusts up to 30 kts, slowly diminishing after 01/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy conditions will continue across the area today and Wednesday with elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the area today. Expect 20-foot winds from the southwest 12-22 mph and gusts up to 30 mph each afternoon. Dry conditions through much of the upcoming week with minimum relative humidity levels in the 10-20 percent range with the more elevated RHs along the international border. Winds will be lower Thursday into this weekend. Moisture may begin to creep back into the south late in the week however current forecast minimum relative humidities stay mainly below 15 percent for now. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion