Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 082057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
157 PM MST Thu Jun 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Generally dry with breezy afternoons. Temperatures
running several degrees below average for early June through early
next week.


.DISCUSSION...Dry west southwest flow aloft with some a few
clouds this afternoon between a mid/upper low over Nevada and
subtropical high well to the south of Baja. With below normal
heights for early June, highs this afternoon are running about 6 to
9 degrees below normal. Periods of cirroform clouds will continue
into Friday ahead of a weak disturbance aloft with highs on Friday
similar to today.

For this weekend, brief shortwave ridging on Saturday, transitioning
to southwest flow ahead of an upper low off the California coast
will allow temperatures to rebound to within a few degrees of normal
which is now 100 in Tucson. That brief warming will be short lived
though as the mid/upper low moves east into southern California
Sunday, then into Utah/northern AZ on Monday. This system will bring
breezy conditions area-wide on Sunday, then mainly to areas east of
Tucson Monday. Meanwhile, temperatures Sunday and Monday will be
about 7 to 10 degrees below normal.

A gradual warming trend will commence the middle of next week due to
ridging building aloft. By late next week, chances of triple digit
heat returning for Tucson and the lower deserts increase.


.AVIATION...valid through 10/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft MSL. Sfc winds WLY-SWLY 10-15 kts with
gusts up to 20 kts, decreasing aft 09/03Z to less than 10 kts. SWLY
winds around 10 kts resume aft 09/18Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with min RH values generally 5-15% in
the valleys and 10-20% in the mountains. A few afternoon breezes
through Friday then increasing west to southwest winds this weekend
as a weather system passes to our north and west. Critical fire
weather conditions are possible for much of the area on Sunday, then
areas east of Tucson on Monday. Thereafter, afternoon breezes
continue but remain below critical levels.





Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at

NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion