Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS65 KTWC 280950 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 249 AM MST Tue Sep 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A few showers will linger across the area today as a result of the slow departure of the weekend storm system. Another storm will develop over the region late Wednesday through Thursday for another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon temperatures will remain cooler than average this week thanks to these storm systems. && .DISCUSSION...The upper low that brought rain to the area over the weekend and yesterday was moving slowly east of the region. Light showers continued on the backside of this low across parts of AZ early this morning. Latest guidance supported some lingering showers and thunderstorms again today, mainly east of Tucson. The next system will start to impact the region on Wednesday with rain chances increasing again Wednesday evening into Thursday. The latest ensemble means indicated that this system will track a little farther east than previous solutions. Therefore, the best chance of rain will generally be across the eastern CWA late Wednesday and Thursday. Improving weather can be anticipated Friday into the weekend. High temperatures will remain below normal with slightly warmer readings over the weekend. && .AVIATION...Valid through 29/12Z. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA primarily NE of KTUS, decreasing this evening. SCT-BKN cloud bases at 10k-15k ft MSL, which also decrease in coverage later in the period. SFC wind generally less than 12 kts favoring a SWLY/WLY direction in the afternoon/evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop each day through Thursday, with the best chances mainly east of Tucson. Rainfall chances decrease temporarily heading into the weekend before returning early next week. High temperatures remain below normal until warming to near seasonal levels toward Sunday. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion