000 FXUS65 KTWC 152232 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 332 PM MST Thu Nov 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer weather has established across southeast Arizona as temperatures hover closer to normal for this time of year. Generally dry conditions persist, although a slight chance for precipitation develops Tuesday evening over the White Mountains. && .DISCUSSION...After several cool and breezy days, temperatures have warmed 5-10 degrees from 24 hours ago. Skies are generally clear, with a few bands of cirrus approaching western Arizona. The strong easterly winds have also come down as the surface gradient slackens, allowing a return to typical diurnal flow. This lighter wind regime looks to continue throughout the forecast period. A fairly innocuous pattern remains through the coming days as dry westerly flow dominates. This provides mild weather with passing high-level clouds that thicken from time to time through the weekend. On Monday next week, a progressive closed 500mb low approaches the southern California coastline. However, model solutions differ slightly as it comes ashore, nearing Arizona on Tuesday. The 12Z deterministic GFS has the most aggressive scenario maintaining the closed low, which results in a higher probability of precipitation across the eastern portion of the forecast area Tuesday night. Conversely, the ensemble guidance and ECMWF weaken this feature into an open wave that produces a generally dry forecast. For now, the forecast is assuming a slight chance of showers around the White Mountains. Ridging or westerly flow returns on Wednesday into Thursday allowing for dry weather area wide. Temperatures show little variation through the entirety of the forecast, maintaining close to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z. SKC until 16/02Z then FEW-SCT clouds above 20k ft AGL spreading in from the west thru remainder of valid period. Surfaces winds generally remain below 12 kts through the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Localized gusty east winds will continue into this evening. A more typical diurnal wind regime returns on Friday, although east winds return briefly Monday into Tuesday. Relative humidities remain low until a modest increase occurs starting Tuesday. This also brings a slight chance of precipitation to the mountains and higher terrain for Tuesday night. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Howlett Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
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