Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 252100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Sat May 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Another weather system will pass through the region
bringing gusty winds and cooler temperatures to start the new week.
Thereafter, high pressure will result in a warming trend the rest of
the week. Daytime temperatures will climb back into the normal range.


.DISCUSSION...Models showed another system approaching the region
tomorrow and tracking through the area Sunday night into Monday. The
best chance of precipitation will remain north of the area, so just
looking at more wind Sunday afternoon and again Monday. The main
concern will be critical fire weather conditions developing tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the system will usher in a cooler
air mass with high temperature readings remaining below normal.
Thereafter, models showed a few more systems brushing the region
this week but overall daytime temperatures will warm back to near
seasonable readings by the end of the week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
SKC conditions through the forecast period. SWLY SFC wind 12-18 kts
this afternoon with gusts of 20-28 kts with the highest winds east
and south of KTUS. Winds will diminish to mainly less than 12 kts
this evening into early Sunday morning. SWLY SFC winds then increase
to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts after 26/18Z with the highest
winds again south and east of KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue through the upcoming
week. Elevated winds will continue Sunday as a system passes north
of the area with 20-ft south to southwest of 15-30 mph and gusts of
35-40 mph. These wind speeds will combine with relative humidity
values of 8 to 15 percent, creating critical fire weather conditions
across southern portions of Fire Zone 151 and southern and eastern
portions of Fire Zone 152, mainly below 5500 feet. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for these areas Sunday. Wind speeds will
decrease slightly on Monday, but will still be breezy to locally
windy especially across eastern areas with brief/spotty red flag
conditions possible. Typical diurnal wind trends then return on
Tuesday through Friday. Below normal temperatures will prevail
through the forecast period, although temperatures will be closer to
normal late in the week.


   Red Flag Warning Sunday afternoon for AZZ151-152.



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