048 FXUS65 KTWC 232247 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 345 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions through Sunday. A couple of weather systems will bring a slight chance of showers across higher terrain northeast of Tucson on Monday, and a chance of showers mainly east of Tucson on Wednesday. Dry conditions to return next Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...The upper pattern over the western states into this weekend will generally be characterized with a ridge, although a series of progressive shortwave troughs will remain north of this forecast area. The upshot is for dry conditions through Sunday with some cirriform clouds at times. Various 23/12Z models depict a shortwave trough that is progged to move closer to the area Sunday night into Monday. For this forecast issuance, have maintained precip-free conditions Sunday night followed by a slight chance of showers northeast of Tucson on Monday. Snow levels at this time are projected to range from 6500- 7000 feet. However, any rainfall amounts should be under 0.10 inch, and snow accumulations should be less than one inch across highest peaks. The models suggest dry conditions will then prevail Monday night into Tuesday under northwesterly flow aloft. Per coordination with neighboring WFO`s, have maintained a slight chance of showers mainly across the White Mountains. Forecast confidence is quite low with this precip scenario. The potential for perhaps more-widespread precip may occur next Wednesday, especially if the 23/12Z GFS/GEFS become reality. These solutions generally depict a closed upper low will move southeastward across the area next Wednesday. However, the 23/12Z ECMWF/ECENS depict a positive-tilted open wave trough will move southeastward across the area instead. These solutions suggest precip-free conditions would prevail. For this forecast issuance, have opted for a slight chance of showers east of Tucson with dry conditions elsewhere. Given the disparity amongst the models, forecast confidence remains quite low regarding precip potential for the middle of next week. Dry conditions are forecast to occur next Thursday, although this scenario is subject to change based on subsequent model solutions. High temperatures at least through Sunday, and quite possibly into Monday and Tuesday, will be at least a few degrees above normal. High temperatures will then trend closer to seasonal normals around the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z. Patchy fog with vsbys as low as 1SM may develop in valleys SE-S of KTUS to international border 07Z-16Z Friday. Forecast confidence is low in this scenario however. Otherwise, clear skies tonight then FEW-SCT clouds above 25k ft MSL on Friday. Surface wind variable in direction under 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through Sunday. A couple of disturbances will bring a slight chance of showers mainly across higher terrain northeast of Tucson on Monday, and another chance of showers mainly east of Tucson on Wednesday. Dry conditions to return next Thursday. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and mostly under 15 mph during much of the next 7 days. The exception is next Monday when some gusty northwest afternoon winds are expected. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Francis AVIATION...Howlett FIRE WEATHER...Howlett Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
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