000 FXUS65 KTWC 050916 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 216 AM MST Sun Jul 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are expected to prevail through Monday, then enough moisture for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms south and east of Tucson Tuesday and Wednesday and then again by Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will generally be slightly above normal through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION...A clear down period for the monsoon is expected the next couple of days as the atmosphere just remains a bit too dry with lower level west to northwest continuing to advect in drier air. This will keep build-ups limited mainly to areas along the International border and along the White Mountains. With the drier air and mid/upper high near the AZ/NM border through Monday, temperatures will continue to be several degrees above normal. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a modest increase in moisture is expected due to a Gulf surge, however the surge will remain fairly shallow. While PWAT values increase to around 1 to 1.4 inches from Tucson westward and that is typically enough for a decent amount of convection, given the depth of mid/upper level drier air and subsidence with the high pressure aloft nearby, it will tough to get much more than isolated shower and thunderstorm activity and that will occur primarily to the south and east of Tucson. With the uptick in moisture, temperatures may briefly drop to near normal levels during this period. Starting on Thursday, confidence is increasing that the mid/upper level high will be intensifying with increasing heights heading into next weekend. However, there are still some differences in the guidance regarding the position of the high and whether it is closer to us or placed a little bit further east in New Mexico. Regardless, still a fairly quiet period with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms returning mainly south of Tucson Friday and Saturday as temperatures warm back up by a few degrees. && .AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA may occur this afternoon mostly near the International border SE-S of KTUS, and also across the White Mtns northeast of KSAD. Brief outflow gusts to near 40 kts may be observed. Otherwise, FEW clouds 10k-15k ft MSL this afternoon northwest of KTUS and SKC at other times. KTUS vicinity ewd/swd, FEW-BKN clouds 10k-15k ft MSL this afternoon and evening, and SKC- FEW clouds above 15k ft MSL at other times. Surface wind variable in direction generally under 12 kts, though favoring a wly/nwly afternoon component. Surface wind vicinity KSAD this afternoon wly/nwly with gusts near 25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated thunderstorms southeast-to-south of Tucson Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Friday and Saturday during the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail during this forecast period. Daytime minimum humidity mostly ranging from 15-30 percent with good overnight recoveries. Aside from brief gusty thunderstorm outflows, 20-foot will be mainly terrain driven at less than 15 mph. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lader AVIATION...Francis FIRE WEATHER...Francis Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
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