Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
048
FXUS65 KTWC 232247
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
345 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions through Sunday. A couple of weather
systems will bring a slight chance of showers across higher terrain
northeast of Tucson on Monday, and a chance of showers mainly east
of Tucson on Wednesday. Dry conditions to return next Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern over the western states into this
weekend will generally be characterized with a ridge, although a
series of progressive shortwave troughs will remain north of this
forecast area. The upshot is for dry conditions through Sunday with
some cirriform clouds at times.

Various 23/12Z models depict a shortwave trough that is progged to
move closer to the area Sunday night into Monday. For this forecast
issuance, have maintained precip-free conditions Sunday night
followed by a slight chance of showers northeast of Tucson on
Monday. Snow levels at this time are projected to range from 6500-
7000 feet. However, any rainfall amounts should be under 0.10 inch,
and snow accumulations should be less than one inch across highest
peaks.

The models suggest dry conditions will then prevail Monday night
into Tuesday under northwesterly flow aloft. Per coordination with
neighboring WFO`s, have maintained a slight chance of showers mainly
across the White Mountains. Forecast confidence is quite low with
this precip scenario.

The potential for perhaps more-widespread precip may occur next
Wednesday, especially if the 23/12Z GFS/GEFS become reality. These
solutions generally depict a closed upper low will move
southeastward across the area next Wednesday. However, the 23/12Z
ECMWF/ECENS depict a positive-tilted open wave trough will move
southeastward across the area instead. These solutions suggest
precip-free conditions would prevail.

For this forecast issuance, have opted for a slight chance of
showers east of Tucson with dry conditions elsewhere. Given the
disparity amongst the models, forecast confidence remains quite low
regarding precip potential for the middle of next week. Dry
conditions are forecast to occur next Thursday, although this
scenario is subject to change based on subsequent model solutions.

High temperatures at least through Sunday, and quite possibly into
Monday and Tuesday, will be at least a few degrees above normal.
High temperatures will then trend closer to seasonal normals around
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
Patchy fog with vsbys as low as 1SM may develop in valleys SE-S of
KTUS to international border 07Z-16Z Friday. Forecast confidence is
low in this scenario however. Otherwise, clear skies tonight then
FEW-SCT clouds above 25k ft MSL on Friday. Surface wind variable in
direction under 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through Sunday. A couple of
disturbances will bring a slight chance of showers mainly across
higher terrain northeast of Tucson on Monday, and another chance of
showers mainly east of Tucson on Wednesday. Dry conditions to return
next Thursday. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and mostly under
15 mph during much of the next 7 days. The exception is next Monday
when some gusty northwest afternoon winds are expected.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Francis
AVIATION...Howlett
FIRE WEATHER...Howlett

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