Forecast Discussion
753 FXUS65 KTWC 030750 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1250 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend, with high temperature 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Strong and gusty easterly winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...The models are in good agreement through Thursday, as high pressure aloft builds across central California today, moving east across the Great Basin through Thursday. This will result in continued dry conditions, with high temperatures warming to 4-8 degrees above normal. On Wednesday and Thursday, strong surface high pressure builds down the front range of the Rockies into west Texas, resulting in strong and gusty easterly winds across southeast Arizona. Sustained wind speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts to 35-45 mph are expected in locations exposed to easterly winds. Forecasted wind speeds continue to remain below advisory criteria. High temperatures will cool 2-4 degrees across eastern areas on Wednesday as the east winds begin to kick in, with highs lowering an additional 3-5 degrees areawide on Thursday. Late Thursday into Saturday, the models continue to show a cut off low moving into the Baja Peninsula. Although model solutions diverge in regards to the amount of mid-level moisture this feature spreads across the forecast area, any precipitation looks to be very light. Our current forecast reflects PoPs of 10 percent or less. High temperatures continue to be 4-8 degrees above normal, with Thursday being the `coolest` day. Sunday into the middle of next week, the models point to a more progressive pattern developing across the western United States. The models differ on the exact evolution of this pattern and track of the synoptic scale features, which is expected this far out. Outside of cooler temperatures over this period, the exact timing of the precipitation chances remain uncertain until the models come into better consensus. Right now, the forecast for Sunday afternoon through Tuesday reflects a slight chance/chance of precipitation (PoPs of 15-30 percent) across mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. && .AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL, becoming FEW-SCT AOA 20k ft AGL aft 03/18Z. SFC wind 12 kts or less thru the forecast period. SFC wind variable in direction thru 03/18Z, NWLY thru NELY direction between 03/18Z and 04/06Z and ELY/SELY direction aft 04/06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal into the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph and terrain driven today. A strong easterly wind episode is expected Wednesday into Thursday, with sustained wind speeds of 20- 25 mph and gusts to 35-45 mph in locations exposed to east winds. Min RH levels at all elevation will be in the 12-22 percent range through Wednesday, increasing into the 18-30 percent range (higher in the Sky Islands) Thursday through the weekend. A change in the weather pattern is expected Sunday into next week, with cooler temperatures and a slight chance of precipitation. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion