028 FXUS65 KTWC 221040 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 340 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers ending northeast of Tucson this morning. Dry conditions today through Tuesday with daytime temperatures warming this weekend into early next week. Expect valley rain and mountain snow to return Wednesday through the Thanksgiving 4 day holiday period. && .DISCUSSION...Radar this morning was still showing isolated light showers/high elevations snow showers mainly north and northeast of Tucson. Activity will be ending northeast of Tucson by mid morning. Current partly to mostly cloudy conditions will be improving as the day progresses as weather system to our north moves on east. Can`t rule out isolated pockets of fog this morning. Highs today will be similar to what occurred yesterday. Short wave ridging this weekend will provide dry conditions along with warmer temperatures with highs on Sunday at or a few degrees above normal. Water vapor imagery this morning shower a closed low around 750 west of LA. This system will continue to dive south-southeast over the next 60 hours and be west of Baja Monday morning. This system will tap into sub-tropical moisture early next week. Some of this moisture will be transported north toward southern Arizona next week in advance of a strong upper level trof that will be impacted the wrn CONUS next week. For our area, it`ll be another multi-day precipitation event starting late Tuesday and continuing into much of the Thanksgiving 4-day holiday. This system is colder than the most recent system, thus expect lower snow levels next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z. Isolated -SHRA and mountain SHSN NE of KTUS until 22/15z. SCT-BKN cloud decks generally 6k-10k ft MSL clearing as the day progresses. Surface wind variable in direction mainly under 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated valley rain and mountain snow northeast of Tucson ending this morning. Dry conditions resume Friday into early next week before another weather system impacts the region from the middle to end of next week with valley rain and mountain snow. Once gusty winds diminish this evening, 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph through the weekend. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
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