Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 280950
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
249 AM MST Tue Sep 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS...A few showers will linger across the area today
as a result of the slow departure of the weekend storm system.
Another storm will develop over the region late Wednesday through
Thursday for another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon
temperatures will remain cooler than average this week thanks to
these storm systems.
.DISCUSSION...The upper low that brought rain to the area over the
weekend and yesterday was moving slowly east of the region. Light
showers continued on the backside of this low across parts of AZ
early this morning. Latest guidance supported some lingering showers
and thunderstorms again today, mainly east of Tucson. The next
system will start to impact the region on Wednesday with rain
chances increasing again Wednesday evening into Thursday. The latest
ensemble means indicated that this system will track a little
farther east than previous solutions. Therefore, the best chance of
rain will generally be across the eastern CWA late Wednesday and
Thursday. Improving weather can be anticipated Friday into the
weekend. High temperatures will remain below normal with slightly
warmer readings over the weekend.
.AVIATION...Valid through 29/12Z. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA primarily NE
of KTUS, decreasing this evening. SCT-BKN cloud bases at 10k-15k ft
MSL, which also decrease in coverage later in the period. SFC wind
generally less than 12 kts favoring a SWLY/WLY direction in the
afternoon/evening hours and variable in direction at other times.
Aviation not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop each day through Thursday, with the best chances
mainly east of Tucson. Rainfall chances decrease temporarily heading
into the weekend before returning early next week. High temperatures
remain below normal until warming to near seasonal levels toward
Sunday. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph.
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion