Forecast Discussion
580 FXUS65 KTWC 252208 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 308 PM MST Fri Apr 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm, and breezy this afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions expected this weekend due to an approaching weather system. Temperatures will trend cooler by the end of the weekend and then warming back up by the middle of the new week. && .DISCUSSION...The main story over the weekend will be an uptick in winds due to an approaching dry weather system along with a brief cooling trend. The main impacts from this system will be increased fire weather concerns (refer to fire weather discussion below) along with dust prone areas to the east of Tucson seeing occasional visibility reductions from patchy blowing dust. A trough moving onto the Pacific coast will continue into the Great Basin over the weekend resulting in a gradual tightening of the pressure gradient aloft along with a strong upper jet with speeds of of 50-70 kts at 500 mb. Breezy winds aloft have begun picking up and have are already translating to a breezy afternoon across southeast portions of Arizona today, and similar conditions can be expected again tomorrow. However, more of these winds will translate down to the surface Sunday when the jet is maximized. Winds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to 45 mph are possible with the strongest winds forecast across Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee counties Sunday afternoon, especially along and near the New Mexico state line. Combined with the preexisting very dry conditions and high to very high fire danger, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Sunday. Sunday and Monday temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across southeast Arizona. Breezy winds may linger through Monday afternoon as the weather system exits the area. A warming trend is forecast at this point, but some ensemble members suggest a trough may be approaching heading into next weekend bringing chances for showers and cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z. SKC through the forecast period. SWLY winds this afternoon at 12-18 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Light winds generally under 12 kts after 26/03Z. Similar wind speeds can be expected tomorrow afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...An approaching weather system will increase winds resulting in near critical to critical fire weather conditions through the weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon areawide due to the uptick in afternoon breezes. Then, near critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow across Cochise county and eastern Santa Cruz county as well as at exposed ridgetops. For Sunday, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from 10 am to 8 pm including eastern portions of zone 151 along with zones 152, 153, and 154. This area includes the Sky Islands of Southeast Arizona, Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Santa Cruz, and eastern portions of Pinal and Pima counties. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast Sunday with southwest winds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 45 mph. Although cooler temperatures are forecast Sunday into Monday, moisture will be lacking and minimum relative humidities should remain in the 6 to 10 percent range. Breezy conditions will linger on Monday but should remain below critical levels. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ151>154. && $$ DVS Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion