000 FXUS65 KTWC 050913 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 213 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS...After another cool morning, temperatures will climb back above normal to start the new week. A storm system is expected to bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds and a chance of showers the latter half of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Clear and cool over southeast arizona this morning. Our last weather maker is the low now shifting slowly through Chihuahua. It should pick up higher latitude support and quickly shear through the southern plains toward the Mississippi Valley over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile a broad high amplitude regional ridge will clean up enough to bring another strong warming trend that pushes temperatures back to 8 or 9 degrees above average by Monday. Another deep split will inject a significant weakness in the flow upstream, with a cut-off low forming near the southern California and northern Baja coast early in the new week. Ensembles are consistent with this general feature, even with a bit of cyclogenesis enhancing the low Tuesday. Tough call on when to open things back up enough to drop a kicker far enough south to regain higher latitude support. It will certainly happen the second half of the week with a relatively high energy pattern. It probably won`t be clean though with the bulk of the system shearing through the state Thursday and some residual energy sagging back to keep things unsettled through at least Friday. It should have plenty of time to set up a decent fetch of moisture as it pushes through, weakening as it does. Our current precip forecast may be a little underdone, but don`t expect significant valley rain and mountain snow amounts. && .AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z. SKC conditions expected the next 24 hours. Surface winds will predominately be easterly and less than 12 kt the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue into the middle of next week. A chance of precipitation arrives late next week. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected this weekend into the middle of next week. Generally light easterly winds are expected this weekend, becoming gusty on Monday and possibly Tuesday mainly from Tucson eastward. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Meyer Aviation...Dang Fire Weather....Dang Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
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