000 FXUS65 KTWC 101028 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 328 AM MST Fri Apr 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS...A weather system will bring cooler temperatures and a chance of showers late tonight through Saturday. A few thunderstorms may also occur with this system. A warming trend will follow early next week. However, a chance of showers returns Monday, especially northeast of Tucson. && .DISCUSSION...We patiently wait for that cut-off low near San Diego to finally eject east across the area. At this time, per good model consensus, it should occur on Saturday into early Sunday morning. For today, another sunny and breezy day with high temperatures at or a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Tonight: Clouds will be west of Tucson with a chance of showers after midnight as the center of the closed low is near Yuma. Saturday: The closed low opens up with showers moving east across the area. A few thunderstorms are possible associated with cold pool aloft. Snow levels mainly in the 6500-7500 foot range with a few inches possible at the highest elevations. QPF totals in the valleys mainly less than a quarter of an inch. Highs 5-12 degrees cooler than today. Saturday night: Showers ending from west to east by midnight as the open wave moves into New Mexico. Sunday: A few rain/snow showers in the Whites otherwise dry and warmer. Sunday night: A few rain/snow showers in the Whites continue. Dry elsewhere. Monday and Monday night: An upper level trof moving in from the north will bring a chance of valley rain and mountain snow to mainly northeast of Tucson Monday afternoon and evening. Tuesday through Thursday: Dry with warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z. SKC through 11/00z then clouds increase and thicken west of KTUS thru the end of the valid period. A few -SHRA well west of KTUS after 11/06z. SFC winds less than 10 kts this morning becoming S-SW 10-18 kts with ocnl gusts 15-25 kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry today then a weather system will bring a chance of showers spreading in from the west late tonight into Saturday. A few thunderstorms may also occur at times. Sunday will see a slight chance of showers in the White Mountains. On Monday shower chances increase again mainly north and east of Tucson. Expect dry conditions thereafter. 20-foot winds will have their normal April gustiness over the next week with the exception of Monday afternoon which could see some elevated wind speeds. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
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