Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 050913

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
213 AM MST Sat Dec 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...After another cool morning, temperatures will climb
back above normal to start the new week. A storm system is
expected to bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds and a chance
of showers the latter half of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Clear and cool over southeast arizona this morning.
Our last weather maker is the low now shifting slowly through
Chihuahua. It should pick up higher latitude support and quickly
shear through the southern plains toward the Mississippi Valley
over the next 36 hours. Meanwhile a broad high amplitude regional
ridge will clean up enough to bring another strong warming trend
that pushes temperatures back to 8 or 9 degrees above average by

Another deep split will inject a significant weakness in the flow
upstream, with a cut-off low forming near the southern California
and northern Baja coast early in the new week. Ensembles are
consistent with this general feature, even with a bit of
cyclogenesis enhancing the low Tuesday. Tough call on when to open
things back up enough to drop a kicker far enough south to regain
higher latitude support. It will certainly happen the second half
of the week with a relatively high energy pattern. It probably
won`t be clean though with the bulk of the system shearing through
the state Thursday and some residual energy sagging back to keep
things unsettled through at least Friday. It should have plenty of
time to set up a decent fetch of moisture as it pushes through,
weakening as it does. Our current precip forecast may be a little
underdone, but don`t expect significant valley rain and mountain
snow amounts.


.AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z.
SKC conditions expected the next 24 hours. Surface winds will
predominately be easterly and less than 12 kt the next 24 hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue into the middle of next
week. A chance of precipitation arrives late next week. Warmer than
normal temperatures are expected this weekend into the middle of
next week. Generally light easterly winds are expected this weekend,
becoming gusty on Monday and possibly Tuesday mainly from Tucson




Fire Weather....Dang

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