Forecast Discussion
163
FXUS65 KTWC 210953
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
253 AM MST Sat Dec 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with above normal temperatures will persist
through early next week. Near record high temperatures will be
possible into this weekend. A passing weather disturbance will then
cool afternoon temperatures begining Christmas Day of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure that has brought record or near
record high temperatures over the past several days flattens this
weekend with upper heights lowering a bit. However the low levels
remain rather warm for record or near record highs continuing this
weekend.
The holiday work week starts off slightly cooler on Monday as a
weak trof passing through the 4-corners. Similar highs on
Christmas Eve then much more cooling expected Christmas Day as a
strong system moves through the Great Basin/4 corners. This system
will bring a slight chance of snow showers to the White mountain
with highs forecast to run 3 to 9 degrees cooler, depending on
location, with the whole area seeing an uptick in breezes. A
follow-up quick hitting system moves across the area Thursday
night/Friday morning. Some uncertainty on the timing of this
system and chances of precipitation. Confidence low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 22/12Z.
SKC first half of valid pd, then FEW-SCT thin cirrus AOA 20k ft
moving thru during second half of valid pd. SFC winds mostly NE
to SE direction less than 10 kts this morning, then W/NW this
afternoon less than 10 kts. Light terrain driven SFC winds after
22/02z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with above normal temperatures
through the first half of next week. A passing disturbance the
middle of next week will bring cooler temperatures and a chance of
showers to the White Mountains Christmas Day and Friday. Minimum
relative humidity values 10 to 15 percent in the valleys into the
middle of next week, with 15 to 25 percent expected in the higher
terrain. 20-foot winds will mainly be less than 15 mph through
the next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures next 3 days
Date Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec 23
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport 81 80/1917 81 82/1917 77 80/2021
Ajo 79 80/1981 79 80/2016 77 81/2005
Kitt Peak 66 67/2003 64 64/1962 61 65/2005
Organ Pipe Cactus 81 81/1969 80 82/1955 79 82/1950
Picacho Peak 75 79/2005 73 79/2005 72 78/2021
Safford Ag Station 71 71/1979 72 73/2021 72 72/2005
Sierra Vista FD 75 77/1969 76 75/2000 72 75/1917
Tombstone 74 75/1955 75 81/1950 72 77/1955
Willcox 71 73/2003 73 72/1955 71 73/2021
Douglas 74 76/1955 75 73/2018 72 76/1955
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion