Forecast Discussion
015 FXUS65 KTWC 232124 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 224 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Well above normal afternoon temperatures are expected across southeastern Arizona into early next week. Forecast high temperatures will become 15 to 20 degrees above normal through the second half of the week. Tucson could see its first 90 degree high of the year Friday, but more likely this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...This forecast package can be defined by a single word...warm. The upper pattern this afternoon is defined by a broad ridge of high pressure building off of the coast of the Baja Peninsula, and a baggy trough residing to the northwest of this feature in the Eastern Pacific. Models are in good agreement amplifying the ridge in response to the overall pattern as we move into the second half of the week. The upper trough then opens up late this weekend...squishing the ridge but remaining a broad ridge into the first part of next week. The NBM 23/20Z probability for the Tucson International Airport (KTUS) to hit 90 degrees this week are: 12% Friday, 40% Saturday, 45% Sunday, the back down to 27% Monday as the ridge broadens. The record high temperatures for KTUS this week in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with the lowest value 85 degrees on Saturday. Given this, the NBM probability of setting a new record high is 25 percent Friday, then 90 percent Saturday and 70 percent Sunday. As stated in our previous forecast discussion, "daily west-northwest winds are expected from Tuesday afternoon through the remainder of the week. This will be especially true on Wednesday where winds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph are forecast across much of southeastern Arizona. Eastern locations, especially through the Upper Gila, will likely see winds on the higher end or exceeding this range." This will bring about conditions nearing critical fire weather thresholds east of Tucson Wednesday...but at this time we are not anticipating anything other than the possibility of a brief, localized critical wind/RH observation Wednesday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z. SKC-BKN cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC winds SELY 10-12 kts with gusts to 20 kts becoming light and terrain driven after 24/02Z this evening. SFC winds becoming WLY/NWLY 10-12 kts after 24/20Z Tuesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Well above normal temperatures are expected this week. High temperatures transition from 10-15 degrees above normal Tuesday to 15-20 degrees above normal the second half of the week into the weekend. East to southeast 20-foot winds of 10-15 mph into early this evening with gusts up to 20-25 mph, especially in areas exposed to easterly flow. Otherwise, winds turn west to northwest Tuesday and will remain that direction each afternoon/evening this week. Increased winds are expected on Wednesday with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 35 mph, especially across Graham and Greenlee. Minimum relative humidity values 10-20 percent Tuesday, becoming 15-25 percent Wednesday and Thursday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion