Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS65 KTWC 262108 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 208 PM MST Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weather system will bring gusty winds today and breezy winds on Saturday. A few showers north of Tucson through the White Mountains can`t be ruled out tonight and Saturday, but most chances should remain further to the north. Temperatures will fall below average through the weekend, before a rapid warming trend arrives early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Another storm system is pushing through the Great Basin mainly north of our area over the next 24 hours, before lifting into the front range and plains states Sunday. Another round of cooler air will push temperatures down several more degrees Saturday, bottoming out around 10 degrees below average. Moisture is limited this far south, with the bulk of showers remaining north of our area. We could see a few showers through Graham and Greenlee county Saturday, mainly near the mountains. Breezy to locally windy Saturday, but less than today in most locations. Some lightning possible Saturday afternoon near the White Mountains, with conditions favoring small scale strong storm outflows. We`re still on track for a rapid warmup after this brief cooler interlude. High pressure will bring a rapid warming trend early next week. Back to around 5 to 10 degrees above average by Tuesday. As the flow consolidates through northern tier states,ensembles suggest poor ridge geometry next week. Heights and thicknesses still above average to support the warmup, but probably not excessive. && .AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds at 8k- 11k ft AGL. SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 26/17Z and for most locations again aft 27/05Z. SLY/SWLY SFC wind 15-25 kts and gusts to 27-35 kts until 27/04Z, then diminishing overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A storm system will move across the area tonight and Saturday, resulting in below normal temperatures through the weekend and highs 7-11 degrees below normal on Saturday. In advance of this system, strong south to southwest winds are expected across the forecast area today into the evening hours tonight. Wind speeds will exceed critical fire weather thresholds, with 20-foot winds of 20-28 mph and gusts to 35-40 mph. However, min RH values will mostly be above the 15 percent level, except for isolated areas in far southeast Graham county and the eastern half of Cochise county during the mid/late afternoon hours. This system will also bring a chance of showers mainly north/northeast of Safford tonight and Saturday and maybe even a few lighting strikes. Wind speeds remain breezy on Saturday, but are expected to be below critical levels. Less wind then is expected Sunday through early next week. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the 10-15 percent range Sunday, decreasing into the single digits next week. Min RH values in the mountains will be in the 15-30 percent range Sunday, lowering to 12-20 percent next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion