Forecast Discussion
145 FXUS65 KTWC 111801 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1101 AM MST Sat Apr 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures will be 4-8 degrees above normal the next couple of days. Breezy winds each afternoon through Monday. Cooler air leading to high temperatures 4-6 degrees below normal early next week and bring a slight chance for precip north and east of Tucson Monday. && .DISCUSSION... The current upper air pattern is defined by a strong cut off low situated off the coast of northern California. While this system is fairly dry for us, this is leading to increased cloud cover and breezy west to southwest afternoon winds today. Similar to yesterday, there are slight chances (10-15%) for isolated light showers this afternoon focused to areas far east of Tucson closer to a Safford/ Douglas line. Because the lower atmosphere is so dry, any showers that form will more likely be virga with light rain making it to the ground. High temperatures will be 3-6 degrees above normal today with temperatures in the 80s. The upper level pattern will be fairly progressive with several shortwave troughs passing through the region. A fairly high amplitude shortwave trough is extending southward as far as Central Mexico bringing breezy winds this afternoon. This shortwave trough will quickly move out of the area followed by the aforementioned cut off low that will move southeastward into the Great Basin area. This will bring very dry conditions and breezy southwest to west winds Sunday afternoon as a jet streak situates overhead. Relative humidity will drop into the teens to single digits and sustained wind speeds 15-25 mph and gusts 35-40 mph lead to near critical fire weather conditions forecast. A Red Flag Warning has been issued from eastern Pima and Pinal counties to the Arizona/ New Mexico border for Sunday afternoon. Winds will continue to stay elevated Monday (and even be little bit stronger than Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens) however, moisture will be introduced into the region as well as cooler temperatures lessening the concern for widespread fire weather conditions. As the trough deepens southward into northern Arizona Monday and Tuesday temperatures will lower to near normal to just below normal with highs in the 70s to low 80s. There is a chance (15-25%) for light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday focused to areas in northern Graham and Greenlee counties. By the middle of the week a series of short wave troughs will move through the area attached to a more defined trough in the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will raise to be just above normal during this time with highs in the 80s. By the end of the week there is potential for another high amplitude trough to push into southern Arizona, however there continues to be disagreement amongst the models how deep this trough will extend and the associated intensity. && .AVIATION... Valid though 13/00Z. FEW to SCT clouds AOA 15-18k ft AGL KTUS eastward and SKC to FEW KTUS westward. Clouds will continue to move eastward becoming mostly SKC across the area by 12/00Z. High clouds will begin to push into the area from the west starting around 12/09Z becoming FEW to SCT AOA 18-20k ft AGL across the area by 12/13Z. This afternoon between 11/21Z to 12/02Z there is a slight chance (10-15%) for -SHRA for terminals near KSAD and KDUG (east of KTUS). SFC winds will be west to southwest today at 8 to 12 kts gusting to 20 kts. SFC winds will weaken overnight becoming variable less than 8 kts. Aft 12/15Z SFC winds will increase to be southwest at 15 to 20 kts gusting to 30 kts. Winds will be strongest at terminals from KTUS southward. Due to the strong winds, localized 3-5SM VSBY in -BLDU will be possible, especially for areas KTUS southward and to the AZ/NM border between 13/18Z to 14/05Z. Strong winds will gradually weaken to 5 to 10 kts by 13/07Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon winds west/southwest 12-18 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph today as a Pacific system approaches the region. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Winds increase further Sunday and Monday with speeds 15-25 mph and gusts 30 to 40 mph. Dryer conditions will be in place Sunday, which combined with winds and low fuel moisture a Red Flag Warning is in place. While winds remain gusty Monday, cooler temperatures and increased moisture should help mitigate widespread fire weather concerns. Thereafter, winds generally 15 mph or less through the middle of next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ150>152. && $$ Malarkey Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion