Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for TWC NWS Office
FXUS65 KTWC 072056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
156 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures with continued dry conditions Friday
through the weekend with temperatures down to near normal levels.
Brief warming then returns early next week with continued dry


.DISCUSSION...Another warm December afternoon across the forecast
area with temperatures in the 70s for most lower elevation locales.
The flow pattern is currently zonal but there will be a shortwave
passing through the Four Corners region on Friday. While any
moisture with this system will remain well to our north, a few
increased breezes are expected for eastern areas along with a 5 to 8
degree drop in temperatures compared to today. As north to
northwesterly flow aloft prevails this weekend, cooler temperatures
will settle in with highs back down to seasonable levels Saturday.
Breezy north to northeast surface winds Saturday will transition to
a more typical east to southeast wind regime on Sunday with breezes
in the usual spots susceptible to increase east to southeast winds.
Low temperatures this weekend are expected to stay above freezing in
the lower elevations and desert locations, though a few of the usual
coldest spots near washes will approach the freezing mark.

Daytime temperatures will start to moderate Sunday and into early
next work week as flat ridging dominates. The next weather system
will move into the region Wednesday into the end of next week but
the latest ensembles are generally keeping the main impacts of the
trough and upper low to our north with the best chances of
precipitation (20 to 40 percent) across the White Mountains.


.AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z.
SKC-SCT cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC
winds WLY/NWLY around 10 kts thru 08/03Z, then variable at 12 kts or
less into Friday morning. SWLY thru NWLY winds resume aft 08/18Z
around 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 8 to 13 degrees above
normal this afternoon, lowering back to near normal Saturday and
Sunday, before warming back up to 3-6 degrees above normal early
next week. Min RH values will be in the 10-18 percent range in the
valleys and 20-35 percent in the mountains today, rising about 4-8
percent on Friday. Drier air then overspreads the area Saturday into
Sunday, continuing into next week, with min RH values of 7-15
percent in the valleys and 15-25 percent in the mountains. 20-foot
winds will be less than 15 mph today, becoming breezy on Friday from
the west to northwest at 10-20 mph mainly east of Tucson. Winds then
shift to the northeast at 10-20 mph Saturday, with breezy east-
southeast winds Saturday night and Sunday at 15-25 mph and higher
gusts in locations exposed to easterly winds. Lighter wind speeds
are then expected much of next week. Dry conditions will persist
over the next week.





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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion