Forecast Discussion
555 FXUS65 KTWC 092031 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 131 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer temperatures are expected this coming week with near to above normal highs across southeastern Arizona. A pattern switch is possible next weekend which should bring cooler temperatures and chances for rain showers and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION... The upper level pattern is highlighted by a deep low and surface cyclone over the central to northern high plains, with mid-level height rises ongoing over the desert southwest in its wake. Mean height anomalies over the coming week will generally be positive, with a weak ripple passing on Tuesday. Dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures will be the main story under this pattern, until a potential pattern change to broad troughing arrives next weekend. High temperatures will rise a few degrees above normal Sunday and Monday, putting Tucson and western lower elevation areas in the lower 80s and eastern lower elevations into the 70s. We should see low temperatures come up as well, with one more lingering night of below freezing temperatures in the Willcox area tonight. The high temperature forecast Tuesday dips to right around normal as a dry open wave shortwave trough crosses the region, then temperatures rise above normal again through the remainder of the work week under ridging aloft. Though still about a week out, fairly impressive agreement exists in lower height anomalies over the region next weekend. Details remain fuzzy, however the likelihood of below normal temperatures and widespread precipitation chances are increasing. && .AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z. SKC with light, terrain driven winds under 10 kts through the forecast period. Some high level cirrus possible tomorrow. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and near to above normal temperatures this coming week. Minimum relative humidities through next week will be around 10-20 percent in valleys and 20-30 percent in the mountains. 20-ft winds mainly less than 15 mph through next week, with some gusts to 20 mph on Tuesday. A pattern switch will likely bring cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation this coming weekend. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Edwards Aviation...Edwards Fire Weather....Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion