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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 160526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of
Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association
with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next two to three days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico are associated with an upper-level low and a weak
surface trough. Little, if any, development of this system is
expected before it moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast
tonight or Tuesday. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rainfall along portions of Texas coast
later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE...
 As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 15
 the center of Humberto was located near 29.4, -77.6
 with movement NE at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 988 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 77.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.4
North, longitude 77.6 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast
near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through
Monday morning, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast with a
gradual increase in forward speed over the next 3 days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Further strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the northwest
Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches.  Humberto
may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019  

526 
WTNT24 KNHC 160236
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN AND AROUND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HUMBERTO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  77.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  77.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  77.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.8N  77.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.1N  76.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N  74.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.8N  73.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.8N  68.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 35.0N  63.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 39.0N  60.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  77.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019  

147 
WTNT44 KNHC 160237
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

700 mb flight-level wind data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating Humberto indicate that the system's intensity
is now 65 kt.  This is also supported by Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB, and it makes the cyclone the third hurricane of
the 2019 Atlantic season.  Humberto's cloud pattern has continued to
gradually become better organized, with increasing coverage and
intensity of deep convection, and pronounced upper-level outflow
over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The hurricane is
expected to traverse warm Gulf Stream waters for the next several
days, but the dynamical models forecast a significant increase in
southwesterly vertical shear through 72 hours.  In spite of the
latter unfavorable factor, the numerical guidance generally shows
intensification. This is likely at least partially due to some
baroclinic forcing caused by a strong mid-latitude trough to the
north and northeast of Humberto.  The official forecast is a blend
of the latest simple and corrected consensus models and is very
similar to the previous one.

Humberto continues to move very slowly and the latest aircraft and
satellite center fixes indicate that the motion is now
northeastward or 040/3 kt.  The hurricane has just rounded the
western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone and steering
currents are likely to remain weak for the next couple of days.  An
east-northeastward track with a very gradual increase in forward
speed is expected for much of the period while Humberto moves
between the subtropical high and stronger westerlies associated with
the trough to the north.  The new NHC track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one in 4-5 days, but not as slow as the
latest ECMWF and GFS global model runs.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days.  These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 29.4N  77.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 29.8N  77.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 30.1N  76.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 30.5N  74.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 30.8N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 31.8N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 35.0N  63.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 39.0N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 160237
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)  49(79)   1(80)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  38(43)   2(45)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)   1(24)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Hurricane Humberto Graphics


Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 02:38:53 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:24:42 GMT