Tropical Cyclone Activity:

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Potential for Tropical Formation Next 48 Hours

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


939
ABNT20 KNHC 260536
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak low pressure system located about 100 miles south-southwest
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing disorganized shower
activity, mainly to the east of the center. Strong upper-level winds
are expected to increase further over the system today, and the
chances for tropical cyclone formation are decreasing. The low is
forecast to move north-northeastward along or near the North
Carolina coast later this morning, and it could produce scattered
showers and dangerous surf and rip currents across eastern North
Carolina as it passes by. The low is expected to move northeastward
and merge with a frontal system or dissipate offshore of the New
England coast on Thursday. For more information, please see products
from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized in
association with the remnants of Kirk located about 650 miles east
of the Windward Islands. Recent satellite-derived wind data also
indicate that the circulation has become better defined and that the
winds have increased. If this development trend continues, then
advisories will be re-initiated on this system later this morning.
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is schedule to investigate this disturbance later today.
For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie centered about 850 miles west-southwest
of the Azores is producing disorganized shower activity and
gale-force winds. Leslie is expected to reacquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics on Thursday or Friday while the cyclone
meanders over the north-central Atlantic. For more information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 26 Sep 2018 06:34:15 GMT