Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
|Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
|D4||Sun, Dec 15, 2019 - Mon, Dec 16, 2019
||D7||Wed, Dec 18, 2019 - Thu, Dec 19, 2019
|D5||Mon, Dec 16, 2019 - Tue, Dec 17, 2019
||D8||Thu, Dec 19, 2019 - Fri, Dec 20, 2019
|D6||Tue, Dec 17, 2019 - Wed, Dec 18, 2019
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
|PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
- 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
- 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
- 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
|POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center