FXUS64 KOUN 082350
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
550 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021
Tuesday is expected to be much like today with a strong pressure
gradient over Oklahoma driven by a deepening surface low in
Colorado and strong high pressure in the southeast u.s.
Additionally, another broad wave of cirrus is expected Tuesday.
The drier air over the western panhandles is expected to mix
farther east Tuesday just reaching the northwestern corner of
Oklahoma. However, the moisture gradient will be strong with
modestly higher moisture to the east, relative to that of today.
It will likely be a RFD-critera event for tomorrow.
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021
The strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place on
Wednesday across Oklahoma and north Texas. Winds will be a bit
more southwesterly, as opposed to southerly, which should bring
drier air into the far western parts of Oklahoma. The dry air and
windy conditions will support rapid fire growth, and we are
including a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and early
evening with this update.
A cold front will arrive in northern Oklahoma early Thursday. As
the upper level low over the Southwest shifts east, it will tend
to slow the front, probably stalling it near I-40. The moist
southerly low-level flow will continue in advance of the upper-
level system...with rain and a few thunderstorms developing
Wednesday, and generally increasing in coverage through Friday.
Rain/thunderstorm chances will continue until the system moves
east of our forecast area by Monday afternoon.
Severe weather will be possible each day from Wednesday through
Sunday. Surface-based instability will be weak, but some higher
levels of elevated instability are expected, along with rather
strong vertical wind shear. In general, low-end severe hail will
be the most likely form of severe weather.
The amount of precipitable moisture will be very high for this
time of year. Medium-range models are in good agreement that our
entire forecast area should receive rainfall. Much of the
northeast half of our forecast area may receive heavy rainfall,
and flooding will be a possibility.
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021
Strong southerly flow will continue through the forecast period,
with LLWS expected overall all but far western Oklahoma where
decoupling will be less of an issue. MVFR stratus expected to make
a run at all but northwest Oklahoma toward 12Z and last until at
least 16-18Z before veering and mixing allow clouds to shift east
and/or scattered. For now will just keep TEMPO groups in there but
may go prevailing in next forecast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 53 69 59 75 / 0 0 0 10
Hobart OK 51 73 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 53 74 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 49 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 53 70 59 76 / 0 0 10 20
Durant OK 51 69 57 72 / 0 0 0 10
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033-034.
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion