000
FXUS64 KOUN 041137
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
537 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

The continuation of weak moisture advection across parts of the area
have resulted in some fog across parts of central and southern
Oklahoma and this morning. With very weak sfc winds ahead of sfc
boundary, will need to monitor for development of some dense fog.

Weak surface front will continue to drift slowly south today as a
weak shortwave trough shifts east across southern Oklahoma. The lift
from this shortwave along with modest moisture ahead of the front
may result in a few showers and thunderstorms across portions of
southeast Oklahoma.

A bit cooler across much of the area behind the front with far
southeast Oklahoma seeing another day in the 70s. Mainly 50s and
lower 60s expected elsewhere.

A few lingering showers possible Saturday night across the
southeast, otherwise surface front will begin to wash out with south
winds returning to much of the area by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

South winds will increase on Sunday in response to tightening
pressure gradient as larger storm system moves east across the
northern Plains. This will aid in a quick rebound in temperatures
Sunday as temperatures climb back into the 70s areawide. With this
dry return flow, parts of western Oklahoma could see a brief period
of elevated fire weather Sunday afternoon.

As this larger trough slides slowly east it will push a much
stronger cold front south into the area late Sunday and Sunday
night. Where better moisture remains in place across east/southeast
Oklahoma, a few strong to marginally severe storms remain possible
along and ahead of the cold front Sunday evening before
front/moisture push out of the area. Strong north winds will
accompany the front as strong caa develops. Wind chills by early
Monday morning may drop into the teens and 20s. A bit of shock to
the system after 70s the day before. Temperatures on Monday will be
some 20 to 25 degrees colder than Sunday, much closer to early
another mild day anticipated across the area, even to the north of
the weak surface front December norms.

Monday could see some elevated fire concerns, however weather
elements not aligned well, as winds will weaken and even shift back
to the south during the afternoon during the time of lowest
humidity.

Another cold front is expected to slide south through the area
Tuesday, but lack of moisture will keep rain chances low with this
system.

Modest warm up expected latter part of the week as larger trough
takes shape across west. However, models continue to struggle with
location and a bit with the timing of this one. Latest trend is a
bit farther north, which may limit overall precip chances and
possibility of any wintry precip. However, does appear that some
much colder air will move into the southern Plains on the back side
of this system, although this too may be short-lived.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Dec 4 2021

A nearly stationary cold front from just south of KSPS to KADH to
near KMKO will drift slowly south as a surface low tracks east
along the Red River today. The very humid air near and south of
the front will support areas of dense fog, while low ceilings
will spread northwest behind the front. The various circulations
in the atmosphere over Oklahoma and north Texas will result in a
messy combination of low ceilings and no ceilings through much of
the day. Low (MVFR-level) cloudiness is likely to become more
consistent tonight over central and eastern Oklahoma, while
western areas should remain VFR.

CmS
&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Dec 3 2021

No upper air flight is planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  44  72  34 /  10  10   0  10
Hobart OK         61  40  76  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  64  43  77  39 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           57  35  72  25 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     60  44  71  30 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         74  49  72  41 /  20  20  10  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion