000
FXUS64 KOUN 082350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
550 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

Tuesday is expected to be much like today with a strong pressure
gradient over Oklahoma driven by a deepening surface low in
Colorado and strong high pressure in the southeast u.s.
Additionally, another broad wave of cirrus is expected Tuesday.
The drier air over the western panhandles is expected to mix
farther east Tuesday just reaching the northwestern corner of
Oklahoma. However, the moisture gradient will be strong with
modestly higher moisture to the east, relative to that of today.
It will likely be a RFD-critera event for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

The strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place on
Wednesday across Oklahoma and north Texas. Winds will be a bit
more southwesterly, as opposed to southerly, which should bring
drier air into the far western parts of Oklahoma. The dry air and
windy conditions will support rapid fire growth, and we are
including a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and early
evening with this update.

A cold front will arrive in northern Oklahoma early Thursday. As
the upper level low over the Southwest shifts east, it will tend
to slow the front, probably stalling it near I-40. The moist
southerly low-level flow will continue in advance of the upper-
level system...with rain and a few thunderstorms developing
Wednesday, and generally increasing in coverage through Friday.

Rain/thunderstorm chances will continue until the system moves
east of our forecast area by Monday afternoon.

Severe weather will be possible each day from Wednesday through
Sunday. Surface-based instability will be weak, but some higher
levels of elevated instability are expected, along with rather
strong vertical wind shear. In general, low-end severe hail will
be the most likely form of severe weather.

The amount of precipitable moisture will be very high for this
time of year. Medium-range models are in good agreement that our
entire forecast area should receive rainfall. Much of the
northeast half of our forecast area may receive heavy rainfall,
and flooding will be a possibility.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

Strong southerly flow will continue through the forecast period,
with LLWS expected overall all but far western Oklahoma where
decoupling will be less of an issue. MVFR stratus expected to make
a run at all but northwest Oklahoma toward 12Z and last until at
least 16-18Z before veering and mixing allow clouds to shift east
and/or scattered. For now will just keep TEMPO groups in there but
may go prevailing in next forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  69  59  75 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         51  73  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  74  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           49  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     53  70  59  76 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         51  69  57  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033-034.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...11

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion