Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS65 KTWC 241943 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1243 PM MST Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Weather systems passing north of our area will bring strong gusty winds the last half of the week. Precip chances should generally stay north of the area, but temperatures will fall below average Thursday into Saturday. High pressure with a rapid warming trend will push temperatures back to well above average again by Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION...Winds starting to increase this afternoon ahead of a storm system near the southern California coast. Stronger tomorrow afternoon with cooler air filtering in under the low as temperatures drop 10+ degrees Thursday. Any precip chances should remain north of our area. The first system will quickly shear into the central and northern Plains states as a stronger low digs down through the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin over the weekend. Probably windier Saturday with several more degrees of cooling. Best precip chances will again be north of us, but a few showers are possible mainly near the mountains. We`ll need to watch for isolated lighting strikes in the east central mountains of Graham and Greenlee counties for potential wildfire starts. Weak residual troughiness sagging back over the area Sunday, but after a cooler morning we`ll already be seeing a quick warmup underway. Broad low amplitude high pressure will push temperatures back to around 10 degrees above climo by Tuesday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z. BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru 24/01Z, then clearing from the west. SLY/SWLY SFC wind at 12-18 kts with gusts to 22-28 kts until 25/02Z, then diminishing in the evening hours. Winds increasing again from the west after 25/17Z, Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will move north of the area on Thursday, dropping temperatures below normal and increasing wind speeds. Wind speeds will be near critical levels over portions of Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties, however min RH levels will increase as well. Another weather system will move across the area Friday night and Saturday, resulting in even cooler temperatures and highs 5-10 degrees below normal, as well as strong winds areawide. This system will also bring a chance of showers mainly north/northeast of Tucson Saturday (maybe a few lighting strikes Saturday afternoon). Min RH values in the valleys will increase to 12-20 percent Thursday through Saturday, increasing to 25-50 percent in the mountains. Drier conditions return to start the new week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion